SPAIN COULD TURN INTO NEXT BLOODY BALKANS

YESTERDAY Spain’s Catalan crisis stopped simmering and boiled over as, after weeks of dithering, the regional parliament voted to declare independence.

The reaction of the national government in Madrid was immediate – and unprecedented, revoking Catalonia’s autonomy and approving measures that allow it impose direct rule over the region.

It raises the prospect of the civil guard and even the army being deployed as thousands of proindependence voters last night took to the streets to celebrate.

If ever there was a time for cool heads, it is now. But even as Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy was appealing for calm, some Catalans were threatening a campaign of civil disobedience in the event of a crackdown by Madrid.

Now a battle of wills that could turn ugly is on the cards. There are few in Spain who do not fear a looming confrontation between the Mossos, the local Catalan police committed to protecting their political leaders and public buildings, and forces from Madrid trying to suppress secession.

The risk of violence should not be underestimated. Think back to the break-up of Yugoslavia in 1991.

Few thought that Serbs, Croats, Bosnian Muslims and Kosovo Albanians would sink to the level of the civil wars which wrecked the Balkans, but once blood is shed – even by accident – emotions can rapidly get out of hand.

No one knows how many of Catalonia’s 7.5million inhabitants truly want to break with Spain. In the illegal referendum earlier this month that triggered the present crisis, more than 90% voted to leave. But only

about 43% of the population actually voted. However, it is clear that a vocal and dedicated group are determined now that their ‘nation’ should be independent.

Living in Spain’s richest region, Catalans have long been resentful at seeing so much of their taxes disappear to Madrid to ‘subsidise’ – as they see it – the rest of the country.

The Catalan sense of ‘self’ is ferociously strong – they are defined by their own language, culture, cuisine and a long tradition of defying Madrid. Catalan identity has been permitted to flourish only since the death of the dictator Franco in 1975.

The fact their great-grandparents and grandparents fought against Franco, while the PM Mariano Rajoy’s family sided with the dictator, is not lost on Catalans today.

In the unlikely event of Catalonia managing some kind of functioning independence without open conflict with Spain, the fact remains that Madrid can block its access to the EU and other international bodies, so that the self-proclaimed state will effectively be under siege.

Prime minister Rajoy has called an election for the Catalans on December 21 – but this time it will be the Catalan nationalists who stay away.

At the very least a tug of war, if not violence, is coming fast to Catalonia. What Spain needs now is friends to help mediate and calm things down.