EU could yet throw us under a bus. Don’t allow it, Taoiseach
WE are fast approaching crunch time in the Brexit negotiations. While there are a few weeks to go before the EU meeting in mid-December, when the EU member states are due to decide whether or not ‘sufficient progress’ has been made in the negotiations, it is clear from the language coming out of Dublin, London and Brussels in the last few days that those involved are very pessimistic about progress.
For instance, in October, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar indicated that this country was not preparing for a hard border, whereas, earlier this week, he emphasised the need for us to make preparations in the event of a crash out of the EU by the UK, which is, in effect, the same thing.
He was echoing the words of Michel Barnier, the lead negotiator for the EU, who was blunt when he said that the EU and businesses must make preparations in the event of no deal.
He colourfully put it that, without a future deal on trade, the UK would be akin to China in its subsequent dealings with the EU.
Surrounding all of this is constant leaking of position papers from, mainly, the EU, all of which are pessimistic. Last week’s leak suggested that the Irish problem can only be solved either by the UK as a whole, remaining in the Single Market and the Customs Union, or alternatively, by Northern Ireland exclusively remaining in both.
Whatever about the former possibility, there is, in my view, absolutely no chance of Northern Ireland exclusively remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union. To even suggest this, shows a naivety regarding British and Irish politics.
This week, it is now reported that the EU is preparing contingency plans in the event of the UK crashing out. If this is a fact, and given Barnier’s comments over the weekend, is it any wonder the Taoiseach has changed his tune?
THE EU chiefs are not the only ones guilty of leaking documents. We also learn, from London, that a supposedly private letter from foreign secretary Boris Johnson and environment minister Michael Gove to prime minister Theresa May is anything but private. It speaks volumes about relations within the British cabinet when two of its leading members find it necessary to send a letter to their boss exhorting her to get some of her other ministers to ‘clarify their minds’ on the British government’s negotiating position. Politicians, as seasoned as these know full well that it is nigh impossible to keep such a letter private. That, of course, is if they really wanted to keep it private, in the first place.
All of these straws in the wind clearly show that all is not well. I have always said that one of the major fault lines will be the amount of money paid by the UK to the EU, the so-called divorce bill. Reports are now suggesting that agreement on the final bill is near. Even arch-Brexiteer Michael Gove said this week that he would not stop Theresa May if she decided to hand over extra cash in order to get a good deal for the UK. The issue of citizens’ rights, within the EU and the UK, seems to be the easiest of the three main issues to solve.
So, it would now appear that the Irish question is the issue causing the most bother. Maybe that’s the reason for the flurry of meetings between British and Irish ministers this week.
Despite all the statements about ‘no hard border’, and ‘seamless movement’, it appears that we are no further on from the very start. The penny seems to be dropping. No matter what spin is put on it, it is inevitable, if the UK leaves as they say they will, that there will be border checks. And, we, on this island, will be the biggest losers across the EU in this respect.
How the Irish Government approaches the next few months’ negotiations will be a defining moment in our future relationship with the EU.
Leo Varadkar’s star will rise or fall depending on how he and his Government perform.
To date, our ministers seem to have been working hand in glove to good effect, with their EU counterparts, and particularly with the Barnier negotiation team.
However, as I have said before, when push comes to shove, will this country be thrown to their wolves?
The EU has a history of allowing us to be thrown under the bus if it suits its wider interests. The only reason we are getting so much attention is that in the event of no deal, the Irish border will be an Achilles heel in the overall EU financial system.
In these types of negotiations involving the EU as a whole, it is normal that the EU bloc is represented by one negotiating team. But I would suggest that these are not normal times. It has never happened before that one member state leaves the EU, especially in circumstances where one remaining state is undoubtedly going to suffer exponentially. The longer this has gone on, the more worried I am.
WHEN, as is inevitable, this State’s interests diverge from the balance of the EU, who will be speaking on our behalf? Let us say the EU and the UK agree on all issues except the Irish border issue.
Given their intractable respective views, in the EU’s case, that there must be tariffs, in the event of the UK leaving the single market and the customs union, and in the UK’s position of the entire United Kingdom and Northern Ireland leaving both, will this State be told that we must accept the inevitability of a border, hard or otherwise, in the overall interests of gaining agreement between the UK and the EU? Would we be told by the EU negotiators that, despite them doing their best, the Republic of Ireland will have to swallow hard in order to get agreement over the line?
At some stage over the coming period, and maybe well in advance of these types of scenarios happening, it may be that our leaders will have to decide to insist that, given the unique circumstances, we should have an Irish representative on the lead negotiation team in order to ensure that our best interests are to the fore.
Also, I would not, as the Taoiseach did this week, rule out our right to use the veto in our own national interests.
If we allow the negotiations to move into the next phase without concrete commitments suitable to us concerning our border, we will be in a much weaker position from then on.