IN THIS GAME OF POKER, WILL LEO PLAY RIGHT CARD?
FF holds FF’s future in its hands, in all senses. The Fianna Fáil party will not ride to Frances Fitzgerald’s unlikely rescue, and is prepared to tear up the Confidence and Supply agreement with Fine Gael, even if it means the prospect of going to the country in a Christmas election.
But there is another way: if Micheál Martin can convince Leo Varadkar that this time he is serious, then Frances the Forgetful might soon be forgotten about herself while the whole show rolls on. It has now become a compelling game of poker between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, between Leo and Micheál – with Frances the heap of chips in the middle.
Sinn Féin played its hand early yesterday, seeing the tabling of a motion of no confidence in the Tánaiste as a win/win gambit. Either it precipitated the rolling of a prominent head, or Fianna Fáil would be forced to vote confidence in a minister who has been damaged in the eyes of the public. They, Fianna Fáil, would also thereby become public buttresses of all the bad things this Fine Gael minority Government does, along with all the good it fails to do.
The Shinners have to always act as if they are eternally unafraid of a general election. Fianna Fáil have stolen some of their glory by acting just as tough themselves last night – and they will submit their own motion of no confidence in the Tánaiste this morning.
If an election does come about, Sinn Féin will be on the doorsteps with Gerry Adams halfway out the door himself – but there will be no bravery awards in bringing down the Government to help boost Mary Lou’s appeal. Micheál would hoover up any positive sentiment in that regard.
In reality there was always going to be a time when Fianna Fáil would be faced with truly making their minds up, after months of being marched up and down the hill by their commander, labelled the Grand Old Duke of Cork.
A climbdown this time would be damaging to its posture as an honourable group of professional politicians prepared to support a minority Government as long as it does the right thing. It couldn’t still back it when it simply forgets to do anything at all.
ASURRENDER by Mr Martin would have been be hugely demoralising to the party members, even if many are champing at the bit for a contest. Some may even tell their man that he could do with toughening up. Supporting FG ministers from the backbenches has been galling enough these last eighteen months. And so Fianna Fáil cocked its revolver last night with a declaration that it will not vote confidence in Frances next week.
Fine Gael has meanwhile played its default card – acting tough, digging in its heels, refusing to be intimidated by Sinn Féin, etc. The reality is that they must engage in such braggadocio in the hope that Fianna Fáil will think again – and blink first. It’s Leo’s turn to look at his deck. Does he still need that careworn Queen? Could he discard her, and draw another card from the pack? Of course he could. It would be equivalent of folding, and suffering some ebbing of power himself. But he would still be IN power.
Expect Frances Fitzgerald to do right by the ordinary man and woman. None of them want to be shivering their way to the polls while Christmas carols ring in their ears. The Tánaiste to fall on her sword – or Leo to become the most reckless gambler of them all.