We need a resolution, not another election

IT looks increasingly likely that we are facing into a snap general election.

Today’s talks between Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin offer the last realistic opportunity to spare the nation from going to the polls before Christmas. Unless there is a breakthrough at this late stage, the days of the 32nd Dáil are numbered.

Few among us relish the thought of an election at this time of year. But it isn’t just ordinary voters who balk at the prospect – even seasoned political campaigners are likely to find it a daunting challenge.

There would at least be something to be said in favour of a winter election if there was any chance of a decisive result. All the signals suggest, however, that this simply isn’t going to happen. According to opinion poll results published yesterday, support for Fine Gael is marginally ahead of that for Fianna Fáil. Meanwhile, backing for Labour languishes at a paltry 6%.

Even though the popularity of Sinn Féin’s representatives is growing, there is scant prospect of either of the main parties agreeing at this stage to enter a coalition with them. So the reality is that in an election, the strong likelihood is that we would see a very similar outcome to the one that emerged in February 2016.

It is worth noting that the aftermath of that election resulted in one of the most unwieldy parliamentary configurations seen in recent decades. From the day the members of the new Dáil first assembled, it took almost two months for a government to be formed. Only on the fourth time a vote was held did Enda Kenny manage to be re-elected as taoiseach.

It would, in any circumstances, be bad enough to find ourselves looking at the same scenario again. But the plain truth is that this is exactly what we are facing.

Unless there is some extraordinary turn of events, no single party would emerge from an election with a clear mandate to rule. This means there is a strong possibility that we will have to endure weeks upon weeks with just a caretaker administration in charge. It would also mean we would almost certainly end up with another confidence-and-supply arrangement, similar to the one now unravelling before our eyes. Suffice to say that this is not the recipe for stable government.

What makes it more dangerous this time around, however, is that there is an EU summit on Brexit in just over a fortnight’s time. If the Taoiseach is forced to call an election, he’ll already be on the back foot when he enters those crunch talks.

These are troubling times. And they will get even more troubling if Mr Varadkar and Mr Martin fail to agree a last-minute resolution to this crisis.