9,000 HOMES WERE BUILT LAST YEAR... SO WHY WERE WE TOLD IT WAS 17,000?
Government accused of ‘misleading’ public
THE Government’s credibility is ‘in tatters’, say critics, over claims that it is using grossly inflated figures for the number of new homes built last year.
Paschal Donohoe recently put the figure at 17,000. However, information from the Housing Department, the CSO and private firms indicate that only around 9,500 were built.
Fianna Fáil now says Government claims have been rubbished so much by experts that ‘the people don’t believe them’, while homeowners campaigner David Hall said: ‘They have to be misleading us.’
Government claims have largely relied on the number of new ESB connections, combined with the amount of ‘commencement’ notices, to estimate how many homes are being delivered. However, this
method has been widely criticised because it can include houses that had been built previously, but were only occupied last year.
The Department of Housing’s house-building bulletin, released in November, highlights 17,151 commencement notices and 19,246 planning permissions granted in 12 months up to then. It also highlights 18,197 ESB connections. Interestingly, it also shows only 9,441 housing guarantee registrations.
And in October, Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy admitted the numbers derived from ESB connections are ‘not a perfect set of data’.
However, despite this, Finance Minister Mr Donohoe told the Irish Times last month: ‘Next year we expect that we’re going to build about 20,000 homes. This year it was about 17,000.’
According to Goodbody’s Stockbrokers’ latest housing bulletin, based on Building Energy Certs (BER) issued, 7,503 homes were completed in the year to November – up 82% on the same time last year. That suggests a total of around 9,000 – far below estimates based on ESB connections, the stockbroker noted.
However, it did tally with the department’s own estimates of 9,441 for housing guarantee registrations in the year to the end of October.
As well as this, CSO figures of stamp duty records for new homes bought in 2017 show there were 6,754 up to the end of October, which would suggest a figure of over 9,000 for the year.
When it was put to Minister Donohoe’s department that he was using inaccurate and misleading statistics, a spokesman said: ‘The Department of Housing is best placed to comment on housing connections. The Department of Finance sits on the Housing Data Analytics Group alongside the Department of Housing, the CSO, Central Bank and ESRI to further improve housing activity statistics and data more generally.’
A Department of Housing spokesman said: ‘The department publishes numerous sets of statistics, some of which are monthly, others are quarterly. Minister Murphy also meets with the Joint Oireachtas Committee regularly and provides updates of progress under Rebuilding Ireland at these meetings.’
Fianna Fáil housing spokesman Barry Cowan said: ‘[The Government’s] credibility is in tatters... Many experts have rubbished their claims to such an extent that people don’t believe them. On two sites in my constituency, a finger hasn’t moved on either and they’re included in their figures.
‘They are deliberately seeking to create the impression that the housing crisis is normal.’
David Hall of the Irish Mortgage Holders’ Organisation said: ‘They have to be misleading us. Any other deduction other than embellishment doesn’t add up.’
There were 17,151 commencement notices for homes submitted in the year to October. However, according to architect and housing expert Mel Reynolds, there is a difference between starting and completing a home.
‘They know commencement notices are not accurate – there are commencement notices active on sites since pre-2010.
‘They do not take into account the phasing of home building and there is no study that shows a strong correlation between multi-unit developments commencements and completions within two years,’ he said.
‘[The Government] are deliberately ignoring the most accurate measure of all house building completions, BER certs. Counting BER certs is the most accurate measure of new homes coming on-stream.’
The Department of Housing’s latest bulletin was released in November. On the first page it highlights 17,151 commencement notices and 19,246 planning permissions granted in the year to November. Page two highlights 18,197 ESB connections, but only 9,441 guarantee registrations. Comment – Page 12
bill.tyson@dailymail.ie
6,754 CSO figure for new homes bought to end of October