Whatever M icheál or Leo say, most voters will make up their own mind
IF we ever needed a reminder that the general public will make up its own minds on the issue of abortion, we got it with the publication this week of a poll on the state of the political scene. Other than a further large rise in Leo Varadkar’s popularity, the poll shows the political scene is relatively stable. In other words, the debate currently going on in the Dáil has had little effect on the voters’ thinking on abortion.
Given that Micheál Martin caused a political earthquake last week with his stance on the proposed abortion referendum, one would have expected his star would have risen for no other reason but for his domination of the headlines all over last weekend. In fact, in the poll, his satisfaction rating with the voters actually dropped by one percentage point.
It had been suggested by some members of his parliamentary party that Mr Martin was being exhorted by ‘unelected officials’ to adopt a more liberal stance, in order to try to reach out to voters mainly in the Dublin area where Fianna Fáil has been polling very badly in recent years.
If it was the case, his handlers must have been very disappointed with Mr Martin’s drop in personal satisfaction rate in the poll, coupled with no change in the party’s overall showing. Also, the poll figures show that Fianna Fáil has only made a very slight recovery in the Dublin region in the immediate aftermath of Martin’s abortion comments.
ON the other hand, those members in Fianna Fáil who were alleging that Martin’s change of heart would lose the party support among more conservative voters have got their answer. By all accounts, his comments have not made any difference.
Indeed, by jumping up and down about this, some members of Fianna Fáil’s parliamentary party may actually help to adversely affect the party’s future voting prospects.
Given that it is widely accepted that abortion is a very personal issue, and that there is a free vote in our parliament about this, they might be better off leaving it to individual voters to make up their own minds.
While much has been made about the divisions within Fianna Fáil, Mr Martin himself seems at ease with the situation. By all accounts at this week’s Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meeting the party leader handled the situation well by explaining why he made his comments in the way in which he had.
As the leadership at parliamentary party level were given a free vote, it was always going to be the case that a party, as large as Fianna Fáil, would have a myriad of different views on this issue. In many households, right across the country, there will be differing personal views on this topic so it is natural that political parties would equally have very diverse opinions, within their ranks.
Equally, given the point that the Taoiseach was under considerable pressure to declare his hand but has declined so far one would have thought his indecision would have impacted negatively on his satisfaction rating. Indeed, the opposite has happened. He has risen by seven percentage points.
While the poll shows that the Fine Gael party, as a whole, has dropped a couple of points, Mr Varadkar’s star continues to rise. His reluctance to, at this stage, state his personal preference on abortion is clearly not a factor in the general public’s attitude to him as Taoiseach.
Yet again, I would suggest that this is another straw in the wind confirming the argument that the public will not be influenced, one way or the other by the position taken by individual politicians on the abortion issue.
Mr Varadkar by keeping his cards close to his chest on this issue has taken the heat off the Fine Gael party membership. There has been a slight smugness in their ranks as they look on at the perceived convulsions within Fianna Fáil.
But anyone who thinks that this soul-searching being experienced by Fianna Fáil is exclusive to that party are deluding themselves.
If the truth be known, there are substantial numbers in Fine Gael who are very much at variance with the position being taken by most of their leading Cabinet members on the issue.
Once Mr Varadkar and the Cabinet finalise their position the pressure will then come on the large number of Fine Gael members who are unhappy on the issue of unrestricted abortion. Having said that, despite the fall in Fine Gael’s rating they will be elated with the Taoiseach’s increased popularity.
By all accounts the Cabinet at its special meeting next week will approve the proposed wording for the referendum. It’s being suggested that on the advice of the Attorney General’s office, there will be more than just a straight repeal of the Eighth Amendment. Apparently, its being proposed that an additional enabling sentence should be included giving the Oireachtas exclusive power to amend the abortion regime in the future.
Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan well articulated the unease some people might have with this proposal when he suggested that ‘perhaps in 100 years time’ the members of the Oireachtas at that time may adopt a vastly more liberal position on abortion than is being countenanced at this point in time.
ASKING the people in the referendum to hand over to politicians the power to change abortion conditions and time limits in the future may not be as easy to get passed in the referendum as the promoters may think.
The public have history on this. They tend to be suspicious of the politicians taking extra powers upon themselves. Remember the efforts by the Fine Gael/ Labour government recently to give extra powers to Oireachtas committees. The public, to the their eternal wisdom, rejected this grab for power.
I have an idea that the suggested proposal that members of the Dáil and Seanad in future can change the time limits and conditions concerning abortion, without reference to the people, may be one of the big bones of contention in the upcoming referendum campaign.
The results of the poll published yesterday on the specific issue of abortion confirms the widespread view that the proposals, if put forward by the Government for a referendum, will be passed easily. But if one digs down into the detail it can be seen that it is by no means ‘all over bar the shouting’.
There is a clear divide as between country and urban areas and younger and older voters.
But what is most significant, in my view, is that 72% of those in the poll who were in favour of repealing and legislating for abortion up to 12 weeks agreed with the statement that they had reservations about the 12-week limit but also felt it was a reasonable compromise and an improvement on the current situation.
This cohort of voters will be the most targeted by the lobby groups on both sides of the argument.