IRELAND WILL FIND A WAY

Home side have proven ability to deliver in big games

THEY do their best to talk it down, but everyone associated with the Irish challenge understands the enormity of this afternoon.

If Ireland win and England fail to match their result, Joe Schmidt’s men will be champions for the third time in five seasons by 7pm. And that will bring them to within 80 minutes of a Grand Slam, with the English in Twickenham this day week the remaining hurdle.

Set down in black and white like that, there is a beguiling simplicity to their task.

But trouble lurks at every turn in this tournament, and particularly this season with Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales separated by very little.

Were Ireland to lose today, it would bring the battle for the championship down to the final weekend, revive Scotland’s interest in that chase, and give England ideal motivation to revisit their designs on three titles in a row in Paris later on this evening.

Ireland control the story, though: if they shape today to their will, then at the very least they will be travelling across the Irish Sea next weekend with four wins from four.

And despite the improvements Gregor Townsend has wrought on Scottish rugby, first in his time at Glasgow and in the nine Tests since taking over the national team from Vern Cotter, Ireland are good enough, hard enough and wily enough to beat them at Lansdowne Road.

The popular interpretation of this match, and one that obviously irritates Joe Schmidt, pits mechanical, remorseless Ireland versus a Scottish team energised by a free and attacking spirit.

It is a reading of the contest that comments from the Scotland camp encouraged, too, with one of their coaches alluding to Ireland’s predictability, Matt Taylor commenting yesterday that ‘when they get in your 22, you generally know what’s coming’.

It’s doubtful if that even qualifies as damning with faint praise.

If there is a degree of truth to it, it makes it no easier to defend against, and the sheer quality and precision of Ireland’s play against Wales is worth recalling.

There has been focus on the scores coming from close-in charges rather than balletic play starting further back the field, but the accuracy and ruthlessness of Ireland’s approach deserves to be fully recognised.

Under Schmidt, they are consistently good in every facet of the game, and the crucial feature of their play is control. Sloppiness is rarely seen and barely tolerated.

Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton have consumed Scottish attention; practically every public appearance by a Scottish player or backroom member for the past week has alluded to them.

They were the Lions’ half backs last summer, so their importance is hardly a secret, but the Scots are concentrating on them to the extent that they believe if they stop this partnership, they will stop Ireland.

That is probably true — but the logic cuts both ways. Finn Russell starts today with hosannas still thick in the air following his performance against England.

It was a display that illustrated the best of his game — but it followed the two opening rounds in which he was poor.

In their loss to Wales, Scotland suffered in many ways but one of them was due to Russell’s inability to influence a match in which Scotland couldn’t secure possession on terms they liked.

Murray and Sexton have the experience to bring some temporary relief to a team that is struggling; Russell has yet to show that he can do likewise.

The breakdown battle has been noted for its importance to both teams, but Scotland rely on winning it more than Ireland because they need clean ball to let Russell do his work.

Chances of him getting it this afternoon must be slim. This is because Scotland are facing a back row that is, in form, as good as their own.

John Barclay and Hamish Watson were brilliant against England, but Dan Leavy has been outstanding since replacing Josh van der Flier against France, and the ceaseless reliability of Peter O’Mahony and CJ Stander practically guarantees good performances.

A bonus-point win would leave England facing an enormous challenge in their match against France to keep the championship alive. But Scotland are too good to entertain serious notions of a five-point haul.

Predicting a plain, priceless Irish victory is not fanciful, though.

Unlike Scotland, they have proven themselves in tight, taut contests time after time. Unlike Scotland, they have play-makers tempered in the white heat of Test battle. And unlike Scotland, they have been, if not scintillating, then unerringly consistent in making the big plays this spring.

Scotland will want to put on an exhibition. Ireland will simply find a way to win.