HUGH FARRELLY’S WARNING FOR BLUES —
SOMETHING seems distinctly off in the build-up to tomorrow’s Champions Cup final in Bilbao. All week, we have been submerged in gushing praise for Leinster — their adaptability, their incredible depth, their stunning surge to the final, the sublime dovetailing of bosses Leo Cullen and Stuart Lancaster — it has been a veritable waterfall of worship.
Riding tandem have been the assertions that Racing are in real trouble without chief playmaker and points-gatherer Maxime Machenaud, with further question marks raised over their fitness and big-game mentality.
The bookies rate Leinster as 11points favourites and the pundits are even more dogmatic, with some such as Stephen Ferris predicting Racing receiving a proper mauling and one debate on Newstalk’s Off The Ball centring on the final being one of the easier European tests they have faced this season.
It’s as though Leinster have already won their fourth European Cup and tomorrow is just about making it official.
It has been altogether too much — too smug, too complacent and too calm for such a dangerous situation — reminiscent of the Star Wars scene when Han Solo prophetically claims ‘I’ve got a bad feeling about this’ before the walls start closing in.
And, without wishing to be a doom-monger amid the consensus of confidence, there are genuine reasons to be fearful for Leinster tomorrow and it is surprising they have not been more readily acknowledged.
MIND THE GAP
Firstly, there has been far too little made of the period of inactivity between semi-final and final.
If this match was being played the week after the semi-final smashing of Scarlets, we would harbour no doubts, the only question would be about the margin of Leinster’s victory.
But Leinster have had their marquee names in cold storage for three weeks — an age in match-readiness terms — and while you would be confident individuals like Johnny Sexton, Robbie Henshaw and Isa Nacewa can handle that time lag with minimal repercussions, it is the effect on collective readiness that concerns.
Starting a chunk of the frontliners against Connacht two weeks ago would have kept them ticking over as well as preventing the demoralising effects of that 47-10 rout.
Hopefully, the Galway humiliation will not have cast too great a pall over the squad but, for an outfit so lauded for its depth and unity, that abject showing has introduced a clear demarcation between top dogs and dirt trekkers (for the first time this season) that must have challenged group morale.
RACING’S CERTAINTY
Meanwhile Racing, injuries to Machenaud and accomplished hooker Dimitri Szarzewski aside, have been chugging along nicely — using a clutch of players who will feature tomorrow to dispose of Bordeaux away (the same weekend Leinster were flopping against Connacht) before securing automatic qualification for the Top14 semi-finals by hammering Agen at home with their second team.
And they have been so cool doing it, co-coach Laurent Travers speaking about how gaining that extra week off would be vital for recovery after Bilbao — the implication being that the Top14 is their primary focus.
A clever diversionary tactic when the truth is that Racing are consumed by the desire to be crowned kings of Europe — driven by the pain of their loss to Saracens in the final two years ago — and anyone doubting that should look at the video of their quarterfinal crushing of Clermont away in the universally feared Stade Marcel Michelin.
FIT FOR PURPOSE
That day in Clermont addresses the other red herring, that Racing are not fit enough — the Parisians racking up 23 unanswered points in the second half to take the game away from the home side and their shocked supporters.
Far too much is being made of Munster’s ‘revival’ in the second half in Bordeaux. Racing had blatantly switched off having led 24-3 at half-time — a perilous policy they will not adopt tomorrow.
NO DOUBTING THOMAS
You go through the Racing team and it is laced with danger in all areas, including the bench.
Teddy Thomas is a phenomenal threat out wide, in a season where has made a habit of tormenting Irish teams, and when you add Virimi Vakatawa, Juan Imhoff and Marc Andreu to the equation, there is enough strike-running unpredictability to unsettle the most organised defence.
Up front, Racing have power and poise in the set-piece — they took apart the Munster lineout — and the right balance between grunt (Donnacha Ryan) and guile (Leone Nakarawa) with backrows Wenceslas Lauret and Yannick Nyanga playing the best rugby of their respective careers.
It is a seriously talented squad and this week’s predictions that they will crumble on the big stage seem especially flawed when you factor in the hard-nosed experience of the likes of Ryan, Dan Carter and Nyanga.
GETTING THE BLUES
Those predictions are based primarily around the excellence of Leinster in Europe this season and there is no doubt that, when Cullen’s men are at their best, they are irresistible.
However, there are a few significant facts to consider here. One is that Leinster have not won a knockout match outside Dublin in this tournament since they last lifted the trophy six years ago.
Another is that Racing boast the best defence in the Top14 — conceding only 45 tries from 26 outings — with Carter paying tribute to the influence of Ronan O’Gara in this area before he moved to Canterbury.
O’Gara spent the latter part of his career working out how to get an edge on Ireland out-half rival Johnny Sexton (who the French side know well from his two years there) and he and Ryan will have Racing well briefed on how to target the Leinster players.
THE ‘BIG IF’
It may be unpopular to say so, but the build-up to this final has been totally skewed in its dismissal of Racing as genuine contenders.
None of that talk has been coming out of the Leinster camp and, if they can replicate their form up to the final, they should win as the more rounded and organised team. However, that is a ‘big if’ given their dubious preparation and the quality of opposition they face tomorrow.
We’re told the force is with Leinster but Racing are not a phantom menace, they are the real deal and the nagging doubts will not go away.
I’ve got a bad feeling about this.
‘Pundits have been too smug, too complacent and too calm for such a dangerous situation’