Will Schmidt regret loading big guns for summer tour Down Under?
SO, THE Grand Slam box has been ticked and Ireland are up to second i n the world on the back of a third Six Nations title in f our y ears — now f or Australia.
As Ireland build towards their ultimate goal of next year’s World Cup, the question consuming head coach Joe Schmidt is how does he get his squad to arrive in Japan 15 months from now in the best position to succeed at a tournament which has brought the country nothing but failure for 30 years?
That assignment is twofold — ensuring his chosen players are in the best physical and mental condition to perform to their optimum and having quality, proven depth in every position to cater for all eventualities.
Quite the challenge, with the likelihood of only 15 Tests to work with, and meeting it will require all of Schmidt’s renowned planning skills.
This afternoon his squad for the three-Test tour of Australia will be announced and Schmidt is poised to go all-in by rejecting the cottonwool approach in favour of bringing all his available heavy-hitters.
It’s a massive call, but is it the right call?
THE CASE FOR
History boys: Schmidt’s tenure has been defined by landmark achievements and a series win in Australia for the first time since Ollie Campbell was in his pomp 39 years ago would represent another one. Ireland are also on a run of 12 successive Test victories and will be mindful of one of the great trui sms i n sport, that winning becomes a habit — one Schmidt is not of a mind to abandon any time soon.
Player management: Getting frontline players to suit up again at the end of a gruelling season will take its toll — on the body and mind — particularly for the 30- somethings and last year’s Lions tourists, two categories Johnny Sexton falls into. However, the beauty of the IRFU’s player-management system is being able to control player exposure next season, which might not be totally to the liking of the provinces but the policy of prioritising the national team is now well established and, based on Ireland’s success and their ongoing World Cup issues, entirely justified.
Controlled expansion: Schmidt’s squad-deepening policies have been as pragmatic as they have been productive. Rather than throw a clutch of new players in for big games, the Ireland coach has tweaked his rotation to ensure there is plenty of experience around when fresh f aces have been given their chance. It is an approach that can be expanded upon in Australia with the likes of Tadhg Beirne and John Cooney, broadening resources in a controlled manner.
World Cup-winning precedent: Only one northern hemisphere team has won the World Cup and Clive Woodward’s template in the build-up to England’s 2003 triumph is worthy of emulation. Woodward identified his strongest team from a long way out and stuck with it through a string of seminal victories, notably away in Australia and New Zealand the summer before that tournament began. By the time they reached the knockout stages, England were knackered, operating more on muscle memory than freshness, but had enough left in the tank to grasp their glory.
THE CASE AGAINST
Fresh princes: Dan Carter and Richie McCaw took sabbaticals before preparations ratcheted up for the 2015 World Cup, while Ben Smith was given a break to further his chances of being ready f or next year’s tournament, which begs the question: If it’s good enough for the All Blacks why not Ireland? The plan is for Johnny Sexton, Rob Kearney, captain Rory Best, Tadhg Furlong, Peter O’Mahony and Conor Murray to form the spine of Ireland’s World Cup effort and they have lots of mileage built up — their vitality in 15 months is key if Ireland are to flourish. The tour to Australia will be draining in every sense and there is a powerful argument for giving Ireland’s most important players the summer off.
FRIENDLY FIRE: Ireland and Australia will be playing for the
“If Ireland flop at yet another World Cup, winning this series will not be much consolation”
Lansdowne Cup this summer. The what? Exactly.
In the greater scheme of things, this series does not count for a whole lot. Put it this way, if Ireland flop at yet another World Cup, winning the Lansdowne Cup the year before will not serve as much consolation. Nor would inevitable Aussie pot- shots at Ireland sending a weakened squad Down Under have held much water — this is the Wallabies and Michael Cheika, after all, not a rugby nation or coach with a great record on rugby etiquette. Australia have won the World Cup twice and made the final on another two occasions — Ireland have yet to make the last four. Bigger picture, folks.
Full auditions: In 2016, Paddy Jackson started at 10 in all three Tests in South Africa and revelled in the frontline, high-pressure exposure. Jackson is now out of the picture, with Joey Carbery the designated back-up to Sexton but he can’t get a game at out-half for Leinster. Now is the time to find out if he can direct operations on the big stage and starting three Tests in Australia would answer that pretty quickly.
Cameo appearances off the bench won’t cut it but, with Sexton on tour, it is hard to see Carbery starting unless Ireland win the first two Tests.
Similarly at scrum-half and tighthead prop, full auditions for the Murray and Furlong roles would have been hugely beneficial for the confidence of the understudies and management. Ireland might still start their back-ups with frontline cover on the bench as security but that is not certain — leaving the main men at home would have guaranteed it.
CONCLUSION
While there are valid arguments to both approaches it appears the die is cast and Ireland will go the f ull monty i n Australia. Schmidt has more than earned the right to have his policies backed but there are genuine concerns with this one — only a successful World Cup next year will prove them unfounded.