They worked with Mary Lou on Repeal: so why couldn’t Leo or Micheál work with her in government?

MARY Lou McDonald and Micheál Martin sat side by side last Wednesday in our TV3 studio, but instead of arguing against each other – as they normally do – they worked together, on the same side.

Both were calling for a Yes vote in last Friday’s referendum, in what was the final televised debate. No matter what your opinion may be about the referendum outcome itself, any fair-minded viewer is likely to agree that they comprehensively outscored businessman Declan Ganley and barrister Theresa Lowe on the No side.

It was fascinating to watch, at first hand, two experienced politicians clearly on top of their game. They argued forcibly, but politely, with their opponents and dealt strongly with the more provocative questions put by Ivan Yates and me. It was clear why they, and not others from within their respective ranks in Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, are their parties’ leaders. It is facile to dismiss all politicians, as some are wont to do, but some, such as these two, are clearly more able and intelligent advocates for things in which they believe than others.

Mannerly

The generosity that they showed to each other was interesting. There was no indication of any pre-planning on their part, but they gave ground to each other and were polite and mannerly. There was no attempted one-upmanship. This was noteworthy because Martin has been damning in his criticism of Sinn Féin’s suitability for government on this side of the border and has firmly ruled out a coalition between the two parties.

The tetchiness of their exchanges in Dáil Éireann, where both are competing to lead opposition to the Government as Sinn Féin’s popularity in the opinion polls rises, has been notable too, but there was none of this here.

There are those in Fianna Fáil who have been indicating that they would have no problem in going into government with Sinn Féin after the next election. Ironically, many of those quietly positing that position in Fianna Fáil are also the same people who were on the losing side in the referendum. They may have noticed that Sinn Féin was far less tolerant with those who dissented with the leader’s position than Martin has been with them.

It would be inconsistent for Martin to backtrack on his opposition to coalition with Sinn Féin in advance of the general election. It would undermine him with the electorate. But that can all change as soon as the general election votes are counted and the formation of government has to begin in the absence of one party having an overall majority.

If a deal with Sinn Féin is Martin’s only way of becoming Taoiseach, he has to seriously consider taking it, albeit after tough negotiations (and on condition that Sinn Féin will go along with it and the numbers allow it). Otherwise, Martin will probably be replaced in a party eager to get power – and which will have lost confidence in his ability to seize it.

All of this is relevant because the possibility of a general election later this year has increased. That’s because of the likelihood that legislation giving effect to the outcome of the constitutional referendum will be in place much quicker than had been expected. The so-called Confidence and Supply arrangement between the existing Government and Fianna Fáil expires after October’s budget. Hence decisions will have to be made.

Dilemma

Martin faces a dilemma. Does he agree a new deal to prevent an election? If so, he risks being cast by the media and electorate as Leo Varadkar’s patsy, full of hot air about the Government’s shortcomings but unwilling to confront by pulling down the administration and causing an election in case he loses further electoral ground. Such an outcome could finish him as his party’s leader. He has just one more shot at being Taoiseach and has to judge when to take it. Maybe he needs the electorate to have more time to fall out of love with Leo Varadkar and his administration. But will it, and does it give Varadkar and McDonald more time to court? The relationships between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin seem to be improving by the day. It is no longer implausible to see them as government partners.

Varadkar is now just a year in charge of Fine Gael and his honeymoon as Taoiseach does not seem to be over. The cervical cancer scandal of recent weeks was the first sign of his popularity being eroded, but being the Taoiseach who oversaw the large referendum win has cemented his reputation as the cool lib- eral Fine Gael leader (that is not an oxymoron) who can get get things done. To many he may look like a leader who is in keeping with a new Ireland. His brand is as important to Fine Gael as the party’s own. But the danger for Varadkar – and indeed for McDonald – is that the referendum outcome may confer them little political capital, especially if what little they get is not spent soon.

The Irish electorate may have been impressed by the politicians who argued on their side, but it is hard to believe that many voted as they did because their party leaders asked them to do so. We saw what happened after the Marriage Equality Referendum. Fine Gael and Labour got next to no benefit from overseeing that successful outcome. The only impact this referendum may have on the next general election may be on its timing, not its outcome.

Damaged

Those who returned to vote from overseas last week are most unlikely to do so again for a general election. The massive turnout of 18- to 24-year-olds last Friday is also almost certainly not going to be repeated, notwithstanding the massive effort Sinn Féin has made to curry favour with voters in this age group at thirdlevel institutions. Most voters at the next election will more likely focus mainly on economic issues and the future, not on rewarding or punishing TDs for their vote on abortion. (It is more likely that parties will do that in selecting or deselecting candidates who didn’t pull their weight as required.)

We could have a general election that is largely presidential in its traction, in that the main three parties centre their campaigns around the likeability of their leaders. Varadkar v Martin v McDonald, with the first two likely to be sparring to form a relationship with the third, is going to be the central, easily understood contest for most. If that happens, then the other smaller parties and Independents are going to get further squeezed.

It isn’t going to be a return to the old two-and-a-half-party state of the past (with Sinn Féin being the new Labour in that trio), because while Fianna Fáil was not destroyed by its role in the economic crisis, it has been damaged permanently and is unlikely to ever be as big again as it was even under Bertie Ahern.

Sinn Féin may become stronger than Labour was and can have ambitions to supplant Fianna Fáil as the party of nationalists. Meanwhile, the day of the Independents and the left-wing anti-austerity parties may have peaked, irrespective of their abilities and performances during the referendum campaign.

But the one thing we have seen in recent years in the so-called ‘new politics’ is that just as the country is embracing social change, the politicians who remain will embrace those who were once enemies, if that is the price of getting things done… and staying in power.