12 years on, it’s still the Rafa and Roger show at Wimbledon
Top dogs again but can Nadal upset the odds or will it be a Swiss stroll?
ROGER FEDERER and Rafael Nadal have provided so many measures of their greatness and here is another one as Wimbledon starts: they can make time stand still.
It is simply astounding to think that they walk through the gates of the All England Club this morning in much the same position that they were 12 years ago.
Just as in 2006, Federer is the top seed and defending champion, and Nadal is the second seed, fresh from winning the French Open. There was even a football World Cup going on at the time.
The two of them have written the history of men’s tennis ever since, and arrive here on this occasion with the Swiss holding 20 Grand Slam titles to the Spaniard’s 17.
This is the 10th anniversary of them playing one of the greatest tennis matches ever, when Nadal won a deciding set in the gloaming 9-7 before the Centre Court had a roof and lights. All the commemorations of that extraordinary final should be accompanied by feelings of nostalgia, or of it being a museum piece. Yet then there is the realisation that they go back even further — and that there might even be a re-run a week on Sunday.
Both will be hoping there are no echoes of Saturday in Russia, from where football’s answer to them — Messi and Ronaldo — were sent packing early.
‘They’re very different to one another and I guess there’s some similarities there as well,’ acknowledged Federer yesterday. ‘As similar as we are, Rafa and myself, we’re still very different on many levels. I think it’s pretty much the same for them.
‘Obviously in football, it’s different because you’re only as good as your team. The pitch is huge, with 11 of them running around. With us, we’re a little more in control, let’s be honest.
‘I hope I can control it a bit better than they could.’
The great Swiss would be happy if this tournament was ultimately capped by the Champions’ Dinner celebrating two 36-year-olds — Serena Williams being the other — with the younger generation still feeding off scraps from the table. Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic almost look like newcomers by comparison, although 10 years ago they were already seeded 12 and three respectively.
The 31-year-old Scot continues to struggle with his hip injury and his late withdrawal is a blow, although surely not one affecting who wins the title.
Djokovic should never be written off, and his issues have appeared to be as much on the mental and motivational front.
As for Federer, we should enjoy him while we can.
Those who were present at his recent matches on grass in Germany noted a slight sluggishness to him there, and prior to his defeat in the ATP Halle final to 21-year-old Croat Borna Coric he found himself in trouble several times. This could have been down to a relatively high volume of play after his long break, and he is normally the master of pacing himself.
The key here for Federer will be to avoid getting detained too long in the early rounds.
A less obvious advantage for the Swiss comes from the fact that he opens the Centre Court programme today as the champion. This should guarantee him the middle weekend off to rest for
the challenges ahead. In what you might guess will be his penultimate Wimbledon, the Swiss will start as the bookies’ favourite, but this is surely not going to be a Nadal-style procession as in Paris.
It is likely to prove far more open than that, and if there is smart money then it could be on the man he beat — complete with blistered feet — in last year’s final, Marin Cilic.
Winning the Fever-Tree Championships at Queen’s Club is the perfect preparation for an assault on Wimbledon, and it sometimes gets overlooked that the undemonstrative Cilic has already won a Grand Slam, the 2014 US Open. There will always be question
marks about his nerve under pressure, but he has all the equipment to win. He moves like an NBA player, while his forehand and serve have looked devastating.
He also finds himself on the opposite side from many of the threats in what is, nonetheless, a reasonably balanced draw.
If Nadal — who has a poor recent record at SW19 — and Djokovic survive week one of the bottom half they will be dangerous, as will Juan Martin del Potro.
The same can be said of Australian firebrand Nick Kyrgios, whose unpredictable and sometimes childish behaviour masks an extravagant natural talent.
Serena Williams faces much the same questions as Federer: can her body take the strain of an unpredictable fortnight?
As is now commonplace in the women’s game, it looks like there are at least a dozen potential champions. You would put Jo Konta on the fringes of that group but no more, after the difficult year she has endured since making last year’s semi-finals.
The player who should win it on current form and pedigree is Birmingham champion Petra Kvitova. It would be one of the great comebacks, 18 months after her left playing hand was slashed by a knife-wielding intruder in her apartment.
Neither she nor Cilic enjoy quite the superstar profiles that have been earned by Federer, Nadal and Williams. But by the time the sun, and a million footmarks, have scorched the baseline into a rutted strip of soil, they could be the last ones standing.