THE HARD TRUTH IS THAT NOT EVERYONE CAN COME TO EUROPE

FROM an Irish perspective, a good outcome to Brexit negotiations is of critical importance. However, from an EU perspective, migration, not Brexit, is now the most pressing political issue. It dominates the current agenda. Despite the agreement of the European Council last Friday, at 4am, the real question is: will this make any difference?

We really need to make the distinction between refugees/asylum seekers and economic migrants. There is a big difference. The most recent images of young males from sub-Saharan Africa trying to reach Europe is really the image of economic migrants. Not everyone can come to Europe and those who do not have legitimate status cannot be allowed to stay. That’s something that liberals never like to hear when it comes to migration. But there has to be a process that is credible, legal and has public support in how it operates.

Equally, Europe cannot do this by itself while other wealthy countries, such as the US, put up walls and fences to stop migration.

One issue that was fudged completely last week is the idea of the EU having a common green card system for migration. For member states, it is a step too far. But if we now have a common border to the EU, with a common EU border police force funded by the EU budget – Frontex – with a common system for dealing with asylum seekers, it is logical that a common green card system should apply Europe-wide. Without that, the current system will break down as each member state does its own thing.

Since 2015, migration has been the most divisive issue at EU level and within individual countries. Migration has caused political shockwaves throughout Europe. Fear of migration was also a major factor in the success of the Brexit referendum. Migration is also threatening to end the chancellorship of Angela Merkel.

A growing number of EU leaders have followed the example of US president Donald Trump by ramping up the anti-immigrant rhetoric for political gain. The populist, authoritarian model of politics is making a comeback in Europe and elsewhere. Notice that some of those who are most stridently anti-migrant are from countries that have taken no migrants.

In 2015, Greece, Italy and Malta were in the frontline of the large wave of asylum seekers and migrants coming to Europe. Since then, however, the number of asylum seekers has decreased by 95%. The UN estimates that, so far this year, the number is less than 50,000. Migration flows are now at manageable levels. The latest agreement on migration from the EU Council, though highly convoluted, is also making practical proposals. The frontline member states such as Italy and Greece will no longer be left to carry the full burden of dealing with the flow of migrants. Other EU states, on a voluntary basis, will also provide reception centres where people can be assessed. There will be closer engagement with and direct support for countries such as Turkey, Libya and Morocco to strengthen their capacity to help the EU.

THE EU-Turkey deal of two years ago has made a big difference in reducing the number of people making the perilous journey across the Mediterranean. The criminal gangs who are involved in large-scale people smuggling must be smashed. Control of people trafficking will include the interception and return of migrant boats to disembarkation centres in the countries of origin. Increased funding and a stronger mandate are also proposed for Frontex – the EU border control service.

The factors driving migration flows into Europe include political instability and war in much of the Middle East and in many countries in Africa. Demographic pressures in the Middle East and in Africa are also a major contributory factor. During the past 30 years, countries in the Middle East have undergone major population growth. UN population projections indicate the population of Africa will increase by 800million and reach two billion people by 2050.

Nigeria will have a population well in excess of 400million by 2050, making it the third-largest population in the world. By way of contrast, the population of Europe is static and is set to decline in many countries; Italy and Germany, in particular, have a rapidly ageing population. Even without the UK, the population of the EU will be 450million. A migrant flow of 500,000 per annum is equivalent to just over 0.1% of the total EU population. The EU should be capable of managing and successfully integrating, on a shared basis, this level of migration. In fact, the EU probably needs this level of migration or even higher to maintain economic growth.

Migration is part of the Irish DNA. We know what it means to be refugees; we also know what it means to be economic migrants. Moreover, we know from our own recent history that social and economic development reduces outward migration. Irish population trends show this. In 1966, the Irish population was 2.88million; in 2016, the population was 4.76million.

The long-term solutions to migration into Europe require the restoration of peace and stability in the Middle East and the reconstruction of countries destroyed by war. It also requires a sustained commitment of economic resources by the EU to help the development of Africa.

In 1945, at the end of World War II, Europe was in ruins. The EU is now a zone of peace, prosperity and human freedom, unparalleled in human history. It is in Europe’s own interest to help its neighbours to achieve a sustainable growth.