Forget about 2018 — ‘five in a row’ offers more value for now
6.6
TYRONE can be backed at as big as 13/2 to create the shock of the century and beat the four-in-a-row chasing Dubs tomorrow. It’s a whopping price, but there will still be few takers. On cold hard facts, there is very little case to be made for an upset. Of the last three meetings between the counties in the last 12 months, Dublin have won all three. And they have done so with a total winning margin of 20 points and an average winning margin of 6.6 points per game. It’s a statistic that oddsmakers have clearly latched on to for handicap purposes. Dublin are even money with Boylesports to better that average (to win by more than six points), but if there is any light at the end of the tunnel for Tyrone it’s in their team’s performance against Dublin at Croke Park in February of 2017 in the League. A long time ago sure, but perhaps a blueprint of sorts as to how they might just frustrate Jim Gavin’s men. Tyrone held Dublin to a draw that day, conceding just 10 points on a dreary Saturday evening under lights. Dean Rock got five of those from frees, with the Dublin full-back line and midfield chipping in with a further three. Ciarán Kilkenny was the only Dublin forward to score from play as their front six were rendered completely impotent. The problem for Tyrone was that they scored just 1-7 themselves. They’ll need more than that tomorrow. Tyrone have shown flashes of high-scoring potential this season, admiteddly against weaker opposition. They bagged 4-24 against Roscommon in the Super 8s, and 3-20 against Cork before that in the qualifiers. But perhaps their most informative big tally was against Donegal in Ballybofey in the final round of the Super 8s — a haul of 2-17 that day the sort of score that would certainly leave Dublin with plenty to think about. Dublin haven’t had a whole lot to think about from anyone other than Mayo in quite some time though, and they were awesome in demolishing Tyrone in last year’s All-Ireland semi-final — kicking 2-17 with just two wides. Perhaps the most terrifying thing for non-Dublin fans is the age profile of the 2018 vintage. Dublin have four of the first five in the betting for Footballer of the Year — Kilkenny, Brian Fenton, Brian Howard and Jack McCaffrey joined there by Tyrone’s Colm Cavanagh. The average age of that Dublin quartet is less than 24 years old. There are still at least 70 minutes to go in this season, but much talk has already drifted to the five-in-a-row (Dublin are 4/5 to achieve that feat with Paddy Power). The way things have been going, you might not get a better price between now and then.