Pity Micheál: caught right between the FG rock... and a hard place
IT’S the economy, stupid.’ This was the slogan of the Clinton 1992 presidential campaign which brilliantly caught the mood of US voters in that election. Indeed, it was such a good catchphrase, it could have been used in any modern election campaign, anywhere in the developed world, in the last 100 years.
It encapsulates superbly the nub of modern-day elections: Despite a myriad of issues worrying voters, in the end, the majority of them will, ultimately, make their decision based on how they feel the various political parties and groupings deal with their economy.
The growth figures suggested this week, by the Government’s economic think tank, the ESRI, showing a 9% increase in our economy, must be music to the ears of the current Government ministers.
They know that, despite all their problems dealing with housing, health, and crime, as long as these economic figures translate into plentiful jobs and more money in voters’ pockets, they are a good bet for a return to power in the next election. This trend can be seen in the polls in recent times. Despite many high-profile issues, especially homelessness, Fine Gael is powering ahead in the poll results. Their main rival, Fianna Fáil, is becalmed.
For the last few months, a game of political chess has been played out between Fine Gael’s leader, Leo Varadkar, and Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin. Varadkar, who clearly feels he’s in the ascendancy, can make the running about a possible renewal of the confidence and supply agreement between the two parties, which has propped up his Fine Gael/ Independent government for the last few years.
HE has spent the last few months baiting Martin about sitting down to renew the agreement for another few years. Martin has been playing hard to get. He maintains that he will not discuss possible renewal until after next month’s budget, and especially until after the current agreement runs out.
Naturally, of the two, Martin is in the most difficult position. What’s in it for him? Agreeing to an extension merely allows his opponent to cultivate his broad appeal with the public. It potentially will just confirm, in the public’s mind, that it would be better to leave the current Government arrangement in position, if they want the good times to continue to roll. And for Martin, it will just push further down the road any possibility of his becoming taoiseach.
Of course, Fianna Fáil and Martin will maintain that they are not concerned with party political considerations: that their overriding focus is to provide the Irish people with stable government, albeit by backing their arch rivals. They will point to the last election result which dictated, by a small head, that Fine Gael was in the driving seat in the formation of a government.
They will continue to say that they had no other option but to act in the national interest and facilitate a Fine Gael-led grouping to go into government, given the fact that Sinn Féin and others in opposition refused to engage.
The last few years for Fianna Fáil have been excruciating, from a political point of view. It has had to behave as an onlooker, while its main rival has gone from strength to strength.
It has had to swallow hard as the Government continues to be criticised on issues such as homelessness and waiting lists. It has had to curse under its breath when Sinn Féin and others have focused their derision on it, not on the Government.
A case in point was its abstention in the vote of no confidence in the Housing Minister, Eoghan Murphy, this week. The party had no option other than to do this, or otherwise an election would have been called. And yet it must have stuck in the craw to do so. Would the other crowd have done the same thing, if the shoe was on the other foot, members must have been asking themselves?
But all of this political ‘Perestroika’ must be very hard going for the vast majority of the Fianna Fáil troops.
They are adopting positions which they would never countenance in normal times, but are doing so, they say, in the wider interest of the common good.
Others in opposition would dispute this. One way or the other, it is the case that the only ones politically benefiting from this are in Fine Gael.
If Fianna Fáil is to continue on this road, by renewing the agreement with Fine Gael, it must be acutely aware of the political downsides. While you will always hear a politician reacting to polls by saying that they are only a snapshot in time, that the vote on election day is all that counts, be under no illusion, they are always worried by any downward trend. And if that is a trend which continues over a period, their focus quickly moves from the national scene, to the local one. In other words, individual TDs begin to worry about their own selfpreservation. Every man and woman for themselves.
So, is it any wonder there is unease in the Fianna Fáil ranks. They can see no political advantage for themselves or the party by backing Fine Gael. And as long as the economic figures continue to rocket, they know that the Clinton maxim, it’s the economy, stupid, will hold sway with the voters, come election day.
Yes, Fianna Fáil will say that it has positively influenced the budgetary direction, that it has curtailed Fine Gael’s right-wing tendencies. But that will not translate into credit for them in the ballot box. Fine Gael will gain all the kudos, even for something that was foisted on it by Fianna Fáil.
Try as it might, Fianna Fáil will find it difficult to convince the floating voter that it is a better bet than the current crowd.
IT must be hoping that some issue will come out of left field, to knock Fine Gael off its perch. I cannot, for the life of me, think of what that might be. I’ve no doubt neither does Fianna Fáil. So it must be hoping, against hope, that some crisis will engulf the Government to such an extent that it will collapse in disarray.
A word of warning about any Government smugness. When economic numbers are spectacular, a sitting government surprisingly can be in a more difficult position than when it has no extra money to dispense. The public are much more demanding when they know that the Government budgetary figures are in the black.
They expect their particular issue to be taken care of by the Government throwing money at it. If it is widely accepted that a government has no extra money to divvy out, while they might lobby, they normally accept that they might have to wait their turn. Now is not that time.
With the ESRI declaring record growth forecasts for next year, the more discerning public cannot fathom how, in this day and age, there are so many families without a roof over their heads. Even in the worst of times in the past, there has not been such a tragic issue on our agenda. Previous governments, with far less money at their disposal, have been able to build hundreds of homes quickly for people in need. The public, in the run-up to the next election, might rightly question why, after eight years in charge, Fine Gael has been unable to grapple with this stain on our society.
Martin and Fianna Fáil touched a chord with the voters last time out with their slogan ‘an Ireland for all’. Continuing on that theme may create a significant hole in Fine Gael’s rising boat. Fianna Fáil’s political salvation may reside in continuing to harp on about this issue for the next year.