WORLD IN THEIR HANDS
Ireland plan to sustain success but keeping Schmidt could be key
THE first thing that hits you when you pick up the IRFU’s strategic plan is the ‘headline target’ of a semi-final place (or better) at the next two World Cups.
You wonder what Roy Keane would make of it.
‘What? That’s crazy, you’ve won the Grand Slam, a series in Australia; you beat the All Blacks a couple of years ago and you’re up to second in the world — why not say you want to win the bloody thing?’
So the notoriously demanding Keano might put it — and there would be plenty to agree with him because the notion of setting the semi-final as a (minimum) target can be portrayed as defeatist. Imagine the uproar in New Zealand if the All Blacks came out with a similar mission statement.
All the evidence suggests Ireland under Joe Schmidt are capable of claiming the Webb Ellis trophy, so why not say so?
Because we have been here before, that’s why, and when it comes to Ireland’s horrific record at World Cups — eight tournaments, no semi-finals — a degree of caution is advised.
Ireland getting too brash never tends to go well — one thinks of the fighting words in 2007 and then the vicious fallout after one of the great sporting flops of our time (and let’s not mention the World Cup bid promo video from last year).
If Ireland were to talk now about winning outright honours in Japan next year, it would increase the pressure exponentially on players and management and then be used as a stick to thrash them with if things go pear-shaped again.
Thus, this target represents a pragmatic approach by the IRFU who were at pains to emphasise that ‘semi-final or better’ does not dilute Ireland’s goal of ultimate success.
‘We go out to win every match,’ stressed IRFU chief Philip Browne. ‘But there is a benchmark we want to achieve. The notion we put it up on a piece of paper, get to the semi-final and say ‘great, job done, let’s have a party’ is naive. The players are not satisfied losing any match... but it is a game of fine margins.
‘This is a genuine aspiration, we need to try and move beyond the quarter-finals. In 2007, we all sat around the table and thought it was our year and it didn’t happen.’
That France fiasco was famously described as ‘a blip’ by Browne 11 years ago — only to be followed by two more blips at the 2011 and 2015 World Cups.
With that unsettling backdrop, you suspect the startling revival of South Africa (Ireland’s likely quarter-final opponents in Japan) is inducing jitters in IRFU HQ.
The fact the Springbok upturn is being driven by Rassie Erasmus — the former Munster coach who did a runner armed with invaluable knowledge players and practices — must make it extra galling but Browne wasn’t taking the bait.
‘We’re watching every team. The performance of a team yesterday does not necessarily mean they are going to perform like that in 12 months’ time,’ he said.
‘The reality is you have to go out and play your best against the team in front of you.’
Fair enough, but there is a growing sense of foreboding about Erasmus, his inside knowledge and what his rapidly improving squad to undo Ireland’s bid to end their World Cup hex.
Solace arrives in the knowledge that Ireland have the best man available to outmanoueuvre Erasmus and, while the IRFU highlighted the collective strength behind Irish rugby’s healthy state, Schmidt is the primary reason why their ambitious strategic plan can be pushed out so confidently.
Holding onto him after the World Cup is the issue now. There is the lure of his native New Zealand or the possibility of an offer too big to refuse from the likes of England — or maybe just the desire for a fresh challenge after six years.
However, Schmidt’s relationship with Irish rugby has been a hugely positive story for both parties and one he may well wish to continue. And, while the union hammered home the point that their strategic plan is aimed to succeed regardless of who is head coach, you would imagine they will go out of their way to retain their man when talks begin in earnest after the November Tests.
Their plan, although packed with predictable levels of corporate speak, is a well-thought out and progressive document with attainable targets (see panel).
The focus on Women’s and Sevens rugby is to be welcomed, after years when both struggled for oxygen, and the overriding focus on ‘creating pathways’ to maximise talent promises to build on the success already achieved.
Leinster’s clear superiority over their provincial rivals is an issue but the union are confident the others can catch up.
‘We want all of our provinces to be ambitious,’ said Nucifora. ‘In
2015, Leinster weren’t in great shape but that was turned around, so there’s no reason why the other provinces can’t achieve that.
‘Go back to Connacht with their Pro14 win, who would have thought? It’s possible. We’ve just got to continue to be ambitious and think big.’
Thinking big has put Irish rugby in an exceedingly healthy state and the IRFU, Schmidt and Nucifora deserve huge credit for creating a system that funnels towards the top with the focus finally on Irish players first and foremost. That has set a firm foundation and this strategic plan is ready to kick things on again.
As long as it comes with World Cup semi-final (or better) attached.