HOPEFULS HEADING FOR THE LAND OF OPPORTUNITY
Murray out in front so who’ll challenge in pecking order?
CONOR O’SHEA’S team selection for Saturday’s match in Chicago was the first confirmation of the nature of the game.
When Italy are sending over the second string, then those naive enough to anticipate a rollicking Test match of the kind that took place in Soldier Field this time two years ago should be left to their delusions.
Ireland will send what can best be described as an alternative selection too. The difference here is that Joe Schmidt has a depth of quality that Italy could scarcely dream about — and the Irish side will reflect as much.
And there are few countries that could match Ireland’s current strength.
There are sound reasons for this, from player management to central contracting, and they are exhaustively rehearsed by now.
But luck is vital in providing a group of such robust quality, too, and the fact is it won’t hold. It can’t in a game so physically punishing.
Thirty-one of the 32 players that toured Australia in the summer are picked again for November, Conor Murray the exception. Compare that to the carnage in England.
But Ireland will suffer injuries, too, which is why this first week of the November window is so significant (and Rob Kearney’s shoulder injury provided one Halloween scare).
Players getting a chance in Chicago could be called upon for bigger challenges to come. Some of them certainly will.
BREAKING FROM THE PACK
The unnecessary mystery around the fitness of Conor Murray means this is being anticipated as the most important element of Saturday’s game.
While it is important to establish the order behind Murray, the most relevant point in the scrum-half discussion is Murray’s fitness. Once he is able to play, he will do, and none of the other hopefuls are anywhere near his standard.
This is not the case in any other position on the field, including out-half (see below), where there is at least an approximation of the first choice ready to take his place.
But at scrum-half, Murray is first among equals.
Given the gap between him and the players competing to be his understudy, his importance to Joe Schmidt’s plans now exceeds that of Sexton.
Some consolation is the form of the three No9s named in the squad. John Cooney continues to be one of the brightest points of rugby in Ulster, Kieran Marmion is among the Connacht players looking rejuvenated under the management of Andy Friend, and Luke McGrath, an occasionally iffy performance in Toulouse notwithstanding, is thriving amid the splendour of Leinster’s game.
Cooney looks the likely starter next Saturday.
If so, it will be a huge opportunity to break from the chasing pack.
NO ORDINARY JOEY
If a probable appearance from Ian McKinley in Soldier Field will provide the story of an Irish out-half to warm the heart, the presence of Joey Carbery and Ross Byrne in the opposition ranks is almost as gratifying. Sexton will be among the pivotal players left in Ireland this week to prepare for the matches against Argentina and New Zealand. Tadhg Furlong, Rory Best, Peter O’Mahony and CJ Stander are others figured to be in that number. That means opportunities, and no player will relish one like Carbery. Two months into his competitive career at Munster, the move from Leinster can already be judged a success. He is thriving with regular rugby, and the talent that first emerged in a national context in Chicago against New Zealand is flourishing.
Munster continue to look patchy in places, but they are a team improving steadily under Johann van Graan and Carbery is as obviously important to the side now as O’Mahony or Stander.
Byrne starred in the inter-provincial opposite Carbery earlier this month, and if he stays fit he will be the third No10 in the squad travelling to Japan.
But Carbery is clearly the coming man.
FIT FOR ACTION
Captaincy is one issue that Schmidt must address well in advance of the World Cup.
His choice seems a plain one – but not an easy one. He can stick with Rory Best, a trooper whose service is regularly and understandably praised. Or he can elect for a younger option, most obviously Peter O’Mahony.
Best is 36 and will turn 37 next August, weeks before Ireland leave for Japan.
Persisting with him as a captain is a risk given his age and the competitive years in his legs.
In his favour is a long record of consistency, though, and the trust that the coach and his team-mates evidently place in him.
It also helps Best’s case, frankly, that the player who looks best placed to replace him succumbs to injury at the most inopportune times.
Niall Scannell did, however, come through Saturday’s rip-roaring win against Glasgow — even if it was his brother Rory, a player unfortunate not to be picked in Schmidt’s squad, who was the hero with the winning penalty with the last kick of the game.
That would suggest he might not be risked for Italy this week, given how highly he is rated but also the need to keep him fit for the two big Tests of this series.
If and when he does get a chance, Scannell is good enough to take it. He has proven that, but staying fit is his main task.
EXPOSED FLANKS
The back row remains the best fortified area of the Irish team. Peter O’Mahony and CJ Stander are certain starters for the main games of the autumn, but the matches against Italy and the US will give a chance to those on the periphery or those, like Sean O’Brien, trying to re-enter the competition for a starting place.
No less than Niall Scannell, O’Brien’s primary concern will be keeping fit because unlike the Munster player, he is established at this level and a proven worldclass performer.
His problem will be the slew of other loose forwards looking to convince the Irish management.
There are seven outright backrowers named in the Irish squad, with Tadhg Beirne an additional option but who has been favoured in the second row by Van Graan. Iain Henderson can also play at blindside flanker only in the event, one imagines, of an injury epidemic.
But Ireland could probably survive that, too, given their options. O’Brien’s experience and reputation suggest he will come back in to the No7 shirt at some point, but Leavy was outstanding last season, while Josh van der Flier is mobile and effective on the ground.
Looking at the New Zealand challenge, and their use of lightning-quick poachers, Leavy, once fit, should be the man for the openside in the two big Tests of the autumn.
Rhys Ruddock is in smashing form and could take the blindside flanker spot in Chicago with at least one Leinster team-mate for company, Jack Conan at No 8.