POWER SHIFT
Six Nations’ best can top teams from down south
IN 1989, world champions New Zealand embarked on an autumn tour of the northern hemisphere and held an open training session at Woodleigh Park in Cork.
Highfield’s ground was packed, at least four deep at the barrier, with many coaches present to see the world’s best team up close — and that afternoon in the city’s western suburbs would shape Irish coaching for two generations.
What was witnessed was not just rugby from a different hemisphere, it was from a different constellation.
At that time, training in Ireland was extremely basic. There were some drills involving lines of four to five players moving slowly up and down the pitch but it was mostly laps, where the ball was seen as superfluous to requirements.
By contrast, the Kiwis did everything with ball-in-hand, and their drills were a bewildering series of diagonal exercises with bodies coming from all angles and constant transfer of possession.
There was a mystery about southern hemisphere rugby in those days. South Africa were in Apartheid exile and Australia and New Zealand rarely travelled north (it had been 11 years since the All Blacks’ last visit).
Over the last 30 years, that mystery factor has gradually dissipated. Professionalism introduced greater exposure but the northern hemisphere still consistently lagged behind their southern ‘big three’ rivals.
The World Cup roll of honour proves as much — three titles for New Zealand, two each for Australia and South Africa and a solitary northern success for Clive Woodward’s outstanding England side in 2003.
Indeed, the last World Cup in 2015 was a southern carve-up as no northern side made it to the last four and it sparked a wave of doom-mongering in these parts as to whether the hemisphere gap would ever be breached — with accompanying mockery from down south.
‘Northern hemisphere rugby is pitiful, except it does not deserve our pity,’ trumpeted the New Zealand Herald.
Fox Sports Australia condescendingly reckoned: ‘The lack of rain hasn’t helped the northern teams because wind and rain are useful levellers in north versus south match-ups.’
There is far less crowing three years on as we head into a series of November Tests that could have a significant bearing on who will raise the World Cup in Japan next year.
Since 2015, the gap has narrowed considerably. New Zealand are still out in front but three Six Nations teams currently reside in the top five of the world rankings (see panel) with the Springboks in fifth and the Wallabies a lowly seventh behind Scotland.
That is some turnaround from November 2015 when we had the customary sight of the ‘big three’ southern powers at the head of the rankings.
Joe Schmidt’s second-ranked Ireland have been leading the way, with watershed results such as winning in South Africa for the first time, then achieving a first victory over the All Blacks as well as last summer’s series win in Australia.
But England, Wales and Scotland have also claimed southern scalps in that time and even Italy achieved a famous win over South Africa just after Conor O’Shea took over two years ago.
In terms of November meetings, the stats (see panel) reflect this shift in the balance of power with the big three’s record of 10-1 wins against Six Nations sides in 2013, reducing to 6-5 the following year, 6-6 in 2016 and 6-4 last year.
The nature of the results last November showed the northern teams have moved beyond the days of occasional, one-off muggings. Scotland hammered Australia 53-24 (and came within inches of stunning New Zealand in Murrayfield), England added to Michael Cheika’s pain after a comfortable 30-6 triumph in Twickenham, and Ireland easily dismissed the Springboks 38-3 in Dublin.
So what has happened to narrow the gap?
Firstly, while Super Rugby and The Rugby Championship are still the most expansive, tryladen tournaments in the game, the lack of competitiveness at the breakdown and intensity in defence has come back to bite the southerners when facing their more attritional northern rivals.
In that context, the Lions tour to New Zealand last year was a game-changer. Warren Gatland’s side were written off travelling over but rattled the All Blacks with their oppressive rush defence under Andy Farrell and with their ferocity in contesting possession.
Drawing a series they were widely expected to cruise forced a change in mindset in New Zealand but old habits die hard and this year’s Super Rugby and Rugby Championship featured plenty of flaccid defence and rucks where the instinct was still to fan out rather than battle for the ball.
Meanwhile, there has been a marked improvement in the skill levels of northern teams and a movement away from a set-piece, kicking-dominated approach, in keeping with rugby’s development into a more expansive game. It sets up an intriguing November when the northern sides will fancy their chances against their southern visitors. Home advantage and the fact these tours arrive at the end of a long southern season work in the favour of the Six Nations sides but it is interesting these factors are now regularly trotted out as excuses by the end of year tourists in a way they never were before.
Ireland are the best bet of upsetting the southerners’ World Cup hegemony in Japan in less than a year’s time but all the Six Nations sides are desperate to make a balance of power-shifting statement as the build-up begins in earnest.
It’s going to be a fascinating month.
‘Northern teams have improved skill levels’