Think Brexit’s tough now? Just wait until it’s actually achieved
SOME in the British political system felt that exiting the European Union would be a relatively simple task. One only has to try to wade through the 580 or so pages of the proposed Withdrawal Agreement to realise that it was never going to be the ‘cake-walk’ that some people in Westminster thought it would be.
And the proposed Agreement is only the start. The negotiations, so far, will pale into insignificance in comparison to the negotiations required on the ultimate agreement between the EU and the UK, setting out their future relationship, after Brexit.
It took nearly a decade to conclude negotiations on a free-trade agreement between the EU and Canada, and, even though all EU member states approved the text of that deal, finally, in 2016, it is still not fully ratified. The Canada deal is primarily about free trade, whereas the negotiations yet to be held regarding the post Brexit EU/ UK relationship, will be much more extensive.
The reality is that there is a huge difference between negotiating with a non-EU member, Canada, and, with the UK, in that the latter has been a key player in the EU for over 45 years.
In the aftermath of the publication of the Withdrawal Agreement, there have been suggestions from the British political system that they should endeavour to renegotiate elements of the agreement. Naturally, the mandarins in Brussels have declared that this would not be possible.
However, already, at political level, in some member states across Europe, there are suggestions that some will not agree to the text because of particular issues affecting their national interests.
For instance, the Spanish Prime Minister has stated that the proposed Agreement is not acceptable to him, in its current form, relating to Gibraltar’s future status, and that he will vote against the draft deal unless changes are made to it, in this regard.
The Dutch and the French also weighed in to this debate by saying that they wanted stronger guarantees from the UK written in to the agreement in regard to a number of issues, including fishing rights. All of this must be music to the ears of some of the political figures in the UK who are advocating renegotiation.
Naturally, if some of the European member states are asking for changes, why can’t they? The more there are, on one side, looking for changes, the more justification there is for the UK to try to rewrite the deal. As I said before, we will not really know whether any of this will fly until it comes to the politicians’ table.
British sources are busy hyping up the possibility of late-night negotiations tomorrow, when the EU leaders sit down to approve the proposed deal.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is having none of it in that she has let it be known that she will not travel for the meeting unless the draft agreement is finalised beforehand.
Over the years, in even the most supposedly simple negotiations, member states have been able to stop possible agreement, often using the reason that the proposals conflict with their ‘national interest’.
So, I have no doubt that the Brexit waverers are delighted to hear about the Spanish problems over Gibraltar, as it just allows them to be able to say, ‘we told you so; that it can be re-opened!’
This week, the EU Ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly, called on the EU Commission to publish the socalled ‘mapping-exercise’ document, which highlights the extent of North/South cooperation which potentially will be adversely affected by Brexit.
Apparently, the areas mentioned in the document range from trade, tourism, cross-border fraud prevention, the mutual recognition of professional qualifications, farming and even items as detailed as the trans-shipping of eels from Lough Neagh.
This had been prepared by the UK, and up to now, both the UK and the EU Commission have refused to publish this, saying that it would be inappropriate to do so, as the negotiations were at a ‘sensitive’ stage. But now that the negotiations are complete, Ms O’Reilly, correctly, in my view, feels that the document should now be published.
I find it strange that this document has not yet been leaked to date. The European Commission is not normally known for its ability to keep documents it has in its possession secret.
BUT leaving that aside, I would have thought that it would be in Theresa May’s interests to publish this document in order to illustrate to ‘naysayers’ like the DUP how difficult Brexit will be, in regard to practical day-to-day issues.
Taoiseach Varadkar is also calling for its publication. In my view, the sooner this is published, the better, in that those of us who are interested, particularly who live in border areas, will see ‘in black and white’ what difficulties lie ahead of us. And I have no doubt that the 150 or so issues mentioned in the document are only the tip of the iceberg.
I would hazard a guess that there are many more matters which will potentially set back the type of day-to-day cross-border cooperation, which has been taking place, over the decades, both before and after the Good Friday Agreement.
Whether we end up with a soft, hard, or no-deal Brexit will knock back the low-key, cross-community, cross-border cooperation, which has taken place, mostly under the radar, for many decades.
I note that May, probably, in an effort to appease some of the Brexit waverers, has promised to reconsider technological solutions to deal with the Irish border.
Whoever thinks that technology can solve the problem of more than 300 crossings along the 500km Irish border is living in cloud cuckoo land.
At the very most, technology might deal with the main road crossings, but this would leave the minor roads unattended, leading to ‘smuggling of the past’.
One thing for certain, technology will not cure the damage caused by Brexit to the largely unsung efforts by communities on both sides of the border to mitigate the problems caused by the border’s very presence.
For the last number of decades, a physical border has become less and less relevant, both in reality, and in the thinking of people living on both sides.
Unfortunately, Brexit will reignite old divisions, in the hearts and minds of the those living closest to the border.