THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES
Farrell is the obvious successor to Schmidt but what if all recent glory has been entirely down to the Kiwi?
FOR all of the apparent good planning, nothing is certain for the Irish rugby team. Uncertainty is the one inescapable consequence of yesterday’s news from Joe Schmidt.
The temptation to draw comparisons between how the IRFU and the FAI have done their business has been irresistible in places.
But Irish rugby cannot convincingly anticipate their fortunes after Joe Schmidt with much more certainty than Irish soccer can foresee how their odd arrangement works.
The one big difference is, of course, the respective records of the associations. While the FAI are dealing with the latest managerial defenestration, and the latest lush promises of an exciting future, the IRFU can point to two decades of largely sound business.
They can also take some consolation from the fact that the underlying supports of the professional game seem secure; Andy Farrell should be able to count upon the emergence of new talents, from Leinster mainly, for years to come.
But just as there is pervasive scepticism about the viability of the FAI’s plans involving Mick McCarthy and Stephen Kenny, so there must be significant questions asked about the plan laid out by the IRFU yesterday.
On paper, it looks a triumph of neat planning. But uncertainty abounds and this is mainly down to the astonishing success enjoyed by Schmidt.
Simply put, an enormous amount of it has been down to him, and that is why anyone inclined to crow about the superiority of rugby’s plans should perhaps pause.
Because if, as one must suspect, the glories of the past five seasons have been largely due to his coaching, then it follows that his departure leaves a void that will be fiendishly difficult to fill.
And the man chosen to step up has never worked as a head coach. Andy Farrell’s appointment as Schmidt’s defence coach in January 2016 was not met with general acclaim. This was because of the disastrous end of his time with England, when as part of Stuart Lancaster’s coaching team he was dispensed with following the World Cup misfire in 2015.
He has been outstanding with Ireland, though, inspiring two defeats of New Zealand (as well as one while with the Lions) and proving vital to this year’s Grand Slam.
But taking over as head coach brings wider responsibilities and more pressure. It brings far more scrutiny, too, and Farrell has not shown much enthusiasm for media duties since joining Ireland.
Not many coaches do, but he got a very hard time with England, with persistent claims that he exercised disproportionate influence. Criticism of that nature can leave scarring.
There was one exceptional circumstance there, of course: Farrell was coaching his son, Owen, and claims of favouritism were easily made in times of trial.
Schmidt has largely been serenaded in Ireland, but that is because he has mostly won. The man has been a phenomenon, but his two immediate predecessors ended their time in the job in failure, and they received coverage reflective of their difficulties. It is worth noting, too, that the Leinster coaching duo of Leo Cullen and Lancaster (left) must have provided the governors of Irish rugby with an alternative to Farrell, or must at least have caused them to ponder it. They have been vibrant successes, and Lancaster has attracted praise from experienced players that sounded very similar to the excitement Schmidt generated when he first arrived in Ireland.
Farrell could be a natural head coach, and his case for advancement was strengthened by the fact he is already within the system. His leadership qualities have been highlighted since his playing days in rugby league, where he became one of the sport’s great figures.
The difficulty for him will be what constitutes success. If Schmidt gets Ireland to a World Cup semi-final, or even further, then the demands made of Farrell will be great. Successful teams should be demanding, but Farrell will have some major complications with which to contend on assuming the job. One, or all, of Johnny Sexton, Rory Best, Rob Kearney and Devin Toner could retire after the World Cup.
All will be well into the autumns of their careers by then (Best will be feeling the chill winter of his). All are, in their way, vital to the method of play Schmidt has near-perfected. No matter how rich the supply lines to the national team are, replacing some of the most influential players that have ever represented their country will be a forbidding job.
Nothing is guaranteed. Again, it’s another tenet of sport, but it has been rather overlooked in the past 24 hours. A convincing plan is vital, but it should be acknowledged that a plan has to survive contact with the unfeeling realities of life.
As far as Schmidt is concerned, it mightn’t seem possible given how lavishly he has been praised since yesterday, but his greatness will only be fully realised in years to come.
This truly is an exceptional time. Credit for that is due to the union, the provinces and the schools — but Schmidt deserves most of it. He has introduced a level of detail and discipline into Irish rugby that simply wasn’t there before his move from an assistant’s position at Clermont to the Leinster coach’s role in 2010.
Schmidt is not an avuncular figure: his first career as a schoolteacher informs his methods and his relationship with players.
He is there to make them better; they are there to absorb the information and improve. The terms of engagement have always been clear and those who struggle with them don’t last long.
There has never been a better approach in Irish rugby. There has probably never been a better one in professional sport on this island.
And that will all end in 12 months’ time. Andy Farrell’s job is clear and stark. He has to live up to a legend. Nothing is guaranteed.
Cullen and Lancaster must have provided an alternative to Farrell