NICHOLLS RAIDER HOLDS THE CLUES TO KEMPTON THRILLER

THERE are two mysteries on your TV screen today — Agatha Christie’s The ABC Murders and the King George VI Chase — and the whodunnit penned by one of Britain’s most famous crime writers is probably easier to solve.

Both casts have compelling motives or form but, in equal measure, alibis or reasons not to back them.

The solution to cracking the puzzle at Kempton may be to stick to your instincts which, in the case of the King George, means rowing in with a trainer with previous history of King glory in the race — and lots of it.

Nine-time winning handler Paul Nicholls runs Clan Des Obeaux, a gelding part-owned by Alex Ferguson, but has even stronger claims with Politologue.

The grey chaser carries the colours of owner John Hales, successful twice in the race with another grey One Man. There are more similarities between his two chasers than the colours of their coats.

Both registered Grade One wins at two miles and, despite One Man ultimately winning the 1998 Queen Mother Champion Chase, both did or have found Cheltenham a difficult stage.

Politologue has run at the Gloucestershire track four times and never got close to a win. He is a different animal elsewhere.

In 15 runs at other tracks, apart from when he stumbled and fell after the last fence in the 2107 Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree when he had the race at is mercy, Politologue has never been out of the first two. That includes winning the Desert Orchid Chase over two miles at the meeting two seasons ago.

A latest win for Politogue from Charbel, who was receiving 6lbs, in the 1965 Chase at Ascot last month has been franked by the runner-up waltzing home subsequently in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon.

Despite losing a little momentum when getting close to the final fence, Sam Twiston-Davies’ mount was inching away at the line in a race over three furlongs less than the King George.

Politologue’s pace should allow Twiston-Davies to deliver a challenge late and, more crucially, sit off what could potentially be a suicidal early pace and, at worst, a burn-up from a long way out.

Bristol De Mai, the dual Betfair Chase winner, Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and Betfair Chase runner-up Native River and 2015 Gold Cup winner Coneygree will all want to press the pedal to the metal from a long way out. They should ensure only the brave will survive.

Most enigmatic member of the cast is last year’s winner Might Bite. Ultimately, he was not as impressive as expected 12 months ago when beating two rivals who oppose again, Double Shuffle and Tea For Two.

It will be as tough as solving a Christmas who’ll winnit spectacular. The best clues, however, point to Politologue.