So where are we and what is next?

NOT since the darkest days of the Troubles have events in Westminster impacted quite so directly on Ireland. Last night’s vote was as significant for the future of this island as it was for Britain. The outcome, however inevitable, has opened up a can of worms. Theresa May now has until Monday to present her Plan B. Here’s how the different options available to her could impact us.

NO DEAL

THE PLAN: From a legal point of view, last night’s vote means this is now the default course of action for the UK. On March 29, the United Kingdom will leave the European Union with no agreements in place. Existing free-trade agreements will cease and the UK will have to begin trading on World Trade Organisation terms. A majority of MPs in Westminster want to block this outcome, but it remains a very real threat. WHAT IT MEANS FOR US: Undoubtedly this is the worst case scenario for Ireland. Border posts might not appear overnight, but will become inevitable as soon as the UK diverges from EU regulations. Analysts predict up to 50,000 job losses, and a €20billion increase to the national debt. Medicines and shortages of certain foods would also hit, with stockpiling already under way. LIKELIHOOD: 3/1 Ladbrokes, 7/2 Coral

SECOND REFERENDUM

THE PLAN: The socalled ‘People’s Vote’ is treated with a good degree of trepidation by both major parties in the UK. Fears are rife that a second poll would exacerbate the divisions created by the Brexit referendum and undermine public faith in democracy, with little optimism it could provide a definitive answer. However, if Westminster cannot find a solution, there may be no alternative. WHAT IT MEANS FOR US: In this scenario, Ireland would merely be a spectator. It’s unlikely the Dublin government would campaign, with the Taoiseach conscious that any perceived interference in British affairs could prove counterproductive. Despite considerable concerns about a second poll, it could potentially stop Brexit altogether. LIKELIHOOD: 7/4 Ladbrokes, 13/10 Paddy Power

DELAY ARTICLE 50

THE PLAN: A delay to Article 50 and the Brexit process would require the approval of all 27 EU member states, but the indications are that Brussels would approve. However, it must come at the request of the UK, and they would likely need to set out a clear pathway out of the Brexit deadlock. An extension to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, for example, would not fly. At the weekend Mrs May refused to rule this option out. WHAT IT MEANS FOR US: This depends on the length of the extension granted to the UK, but the indications are Brexit would be postponed until July at a minimum. Ireland would be prudent to continue with its no-deal contingency planning in this scenario. But Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil might view this extra breathing room as the perfect opportunity for an election. Neither are happy with the current situation but nor do they want to be accused of causing unnecessary upheaval amid the uncertainty caused by Brexit. If an extension is triggered, a snap poll and government formation talks could be done and dusted before the UK has to come back and face reality. LIKELIHOOD: 1/5 Paddy Power

REVOKE ARTICLE 50

THE PLAN: In December, the European Court of Justice ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50. It’s an outcome more likely than no deal, according to Mrs May. But what happens next is not so clear. Brussels is keen that the Article 50 process is not abused, i.e. repeatedly invoked and revoked by member states. This would cause chaos for the EU, which may well find itself having to set out clearer terms on its mechanisms for leaving. The Brexit debate would be far from over, but would at least find itself more confined to the UK. WHAT IT MEANS FOR US: Ireland’s preferred scenario, as stated on numerous occasions by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. While a cautious eye would need to be kept on events across the water, by and large it would facilitate a return to the day-to-day affairs of running the country. LIKELIHOOD: 4/1 Betfair

NORWAY PLUS

THE PLAN: The UK would join the European Free Trade Association alongside Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein. This option – ruled out at an early stage by the UK – is now being given serious consideration once again in London. It would take the UK out of the EU and the customs union, allowing them to strike new trade deals. However, Norway has expressed reservations about welcoming the UK into the club, concerned about the ‘disruption’. WHAT IT MEANS FOR US: From Ireland’s perspective, the Norway Plus option meets our goals of protecting the Good Friday Agreement and avoiding a hard border on the island. From a trade perspective it’s imperfect. File under ‘best of a bad bunch’. LIKELIHOOD: No odds available

LABOUR NO CONFIDENCE MOTION

THE PLAN: Last night Jeremy Corbyn tabled a motion of no confidence in the British government which will be debated and voted on in parliament today. If Labour wins, there would be an immediate election. The motion has little realistic hope of success, but Labour has no option given the failure of Mrs May’s government’s flagship policy. WHAT IT MEANS FOR US: Very little, frankly, given it’s not likely to succeed. A no-confidence motion is simply an opportunity for theatrics in Westminster, with little real world application. LIKELIHOOD: Inevitable

GENERAL ELECTION

THE PLAN: After the disastrous 2017 poll, Mrs May would be loath to call a general election. Indeed she has promised the Tories she will not lead them into the next election. But she may find she has little alternative to an election if the parliament remains deadlocked. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour have been clamouring for it, and would undoubtedly facilitate a poll. WHAT IT MEANS FOR US: Again, it’s a wait and see game for Ireland. Jeremy Corbyn has shown no appetite to avoid Brexit, but would come under immense pressure from his party to change that stance. A pledge to give the people a say by holding a second referendum would seem a likely election pledge. LIKELIHOOD: 11/8 Ladbrokes