I FEEL SORRY FOR BRITAIN OVER THIS DISASTER – MATT COOPER

IT is time to feel sorry for the British. This may not be a popular opinion in Ireland at the current time. After all, their Brexit shambles is a mess of their own making. We, in Ireland, are going to suffer the collateral damage of this decision. We are going to endure damage to trade, size as yet unquantifiable; the border on this island has become a contentious issue again, widening further the rifts between nationalism and unionism; the relationships between our Government and their British counterparts – so improved and developed over previous decades to our mutual benefit – are threatened.

Irrespective of how things work out – be it the outcome of all of this a damaging no-deal divorce from the EU which threatens economic catastrophe and a poisoning of international relations; the implementation of Mrs May’s deal, which her own parliament has rejected, for now at least; or a second referendum to ask the British people if they’d like to change their mind now they have more information as to what Brexit would actually mean – the future for Britain is bleak.

Deprivation

That country has overcome worse, of course, in its recent history, such as the Second World War and the deprivation in the years that followed. But it wasn’t as divided as it is now.

Yes, there were political differences in the past, but there was a common purpose: to make Britain a better place.

All sides in the Brexit debate would claim to have that same goal. But the rows in recent years have been poisonous, resentment is festering and things are only getting worse. Facts are trumped by deliberate falsehoods, as emotions are manipulated and intellect is denigrated.

There is little or no prospect of things improving for years to come, whatever the eventual outcome of Brexit. Those who perceive themselves to have lost are most unlikely to stop their campaigns and will rarely be temperate or forgiving in the arguments they make.

Obviously it would be better for Ireland if the UK was to have a second referendum in which a majority (and hopefully a sizeable one) would opt to call off Brexit and remain in the EU. But even if that was to happen – and it is by no means certain that a second vote would produce a different outcome – the toxicity of that campaign would do further enormous damage to British public and political life (although it might be cathartic).

And you can be sure that a massive anti-Irish sentiment would be whipped up by those who want Brexit seemingly at all costs. This impasse, one that means Brexit isn’t being introduced in the form its most ardent advocates want, is all our fault apparently, given our insistence on this ‘backstop’ on the border issue. (Let’s not remind the Brexiteers they were largely mute when the deal was reached between the sovereign governments on these islands in December 2017. It’s not our fault they didn’t understand its implications or significance at the time.)

Such ignorance is now everywhere in British public life. Brexit is bringing out the worst in many. The level of insult being thrown is dispiriting and, in many cases, goes far beyond what is acceptable. Nobody should forget the febrile prereferendum atmosphere in which the pro-Remain Labour MP Jo Cox was murdered, although the low-key response of many to that atrocity was and remains shocking.

Bullying

The louts who have heckled and surrounded Remain MPs, such as the Tory Anna Soubry, as they entered parliament have been indulged quietly by the cynical and bolstered by the use of social media. Bullying and intimidation comes in many other guises, too.

Theresa May’s defeat in parliament last night leaves the UK in a heightened state of chaos. Few can predict what happens next, other than that she has three working days to unveil a Plan B, one that is unlikely to succeed at such short notice. Both of the main UK parties are bitterly divided and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn seems more in favour of Leave than May herself. There may be a general election, but on what basis would people vote, especially in a system that does not involve proportional representation?

Maybe an election is needed to delay the whole process, to ensure the March 29 deadline for Brexit is not met. But is further delay what people really want? Or is it necessary to avoid a rushed disaster? And what about us here in Ireland?

One of the few certainties Ireland seems to enjoy as the chaotic mess that is Brexit plays its way through the British parliament is that the EU has our back.

Our Government – to the general acclaim of a majority in Ireland – decided that, no matter what, we could not allow Britain to exit the EU in a fashion that would give rise to the return of border checkpoints and controls on this island. Our Government persuaded the European Commission and the other 26 remaining members of the EU to support us in that position and we have received that in rock-solid form, to date at least.

Some British Brexiteers have been shocked by that, having expected that when push came to shove in negotiating a deal, the EU would regard its trading relationship with the UK as far more important than safeguarding the interests of a much smaller member state.

Leeway

However, there have been unintended and unwanted consequences from this show of loyalty to us. So successful has our Government been in securing that support that it may prove counterproductive: British attempts to find some leeway in the duration of the so-called ‘backstop’ – the agreement that in the event of the British not securing a deal with the EU for future trading relationships, Britain would not do anything that would require the restoration of the active border – have received no encouragement. The result is that some ardent Brexiteers would threaten to leave the EU without the deal and renege on the border commitment given by Theresa May’s government in late 2017.

Our hope is that a majority of MPs will maintain their position that a no-deal Brexit would be such a disaster that it cannot be allowed to happen. Our fear should be that such a scenario would happen despite the widespread opposition to it. Wars have been started for less, even when people have expected that those in control would show enough sense to pull back from the brink.

We also have the problem of deteriorating political relationships on this island. Whatever about understanding the British position, it is hard to be sympathetic towards the antics of the DUP, which hit a new low yesterday when Arlene Foster tried to convince a London press conference that there had never been a real hard border on this island.

We are expected to respect the desire of unionists to remain within the UK, but somehow disregard the fact that a majority of people in the six counties who voted in the referendum opted to Remain. Unionists have actually been offered a deal that Scotland would love, the best of both economic worlds, but in a display of obstinate obstructionism have contrived political objections that raise suspicions the DUP is using Brexit as a mechanism to row back the concessions of the Good Friday Agreement. Everybody should be careful what they wish for.