Beware the disaffected! The coalition sounds good in theory, the reality spells difficult days
IN varying degrees, each of the three parties trying to form a government over the last few weeks have had their internal difficulties regarding the process.
Originally, Micheál Martin found it necessary to slap down a number of dissenting voices in regard to a possible coalition with Civil War rivals, Fine Gael. More recently, Fine Gael themselves, and the Greens, have had significant misgivings about the process.
The internal navelgazing of the Greens has been well documented in the last week or so. ‘Will she, won’t she’ Catherine Martin, the Greens deputy leader, finally decided to throw her hat in the ring in the leadership battle against current leader, Eamon Ryan, albeit, at the appropriate time.
Fianna Fáil’s and the Greens’ biggest hurdle will be getting the required majority of their party faithful to give the go-ahead for going into government.
Fine Gael’s contortions since the election are somewhat harder to read. Just after the election, Leo Varadkar made it clear that he was relishing the prospect of a period on the opposition benches. He maintained that Fine Gael had lost the election, and that it was for others to step up to the plate.
He did leave himself some wriggle room in that he hinted that, in the national interest, Fine Gael would do their duty, if required. And so it happened.
When it became clear that Fianna Fáil, and particularly its leader, Micheál Martin, were not for turning regarding coalition with Sinn Féin, and also that the latter could not cobble together a government of the left, Varadkar indicated that they would merely ‘talk’ to other like-minded parties, apart from Sinn Féin. That talking soon turned into real negotiations with archrival, Fianna Fáil.
Popularity
Against the background of the Covid crisis, and with rapidly increasing popularity for Fine Gael in the polls, many others, not least Fianna Fáil, began to wonder if the Fine Gael negotiators were merely going through the motions, knowing that if they collapsed, an election might not be the worst scenario for Varadkar’s party.
While it has to be accepted that Varadkar, Coveney and Donohue have been upfront in their desire to form a government with Fianna Fáil and other like-minded parties and independents, there is no doubt that, just like the Greens and Fianna Fáil, there are many dissenting voices within the wider ranks of Fine Gael, not least within the parliamentary party.
In mid-April, while a majority of Fine Gael TDs favoured government formation talks, a number of leading members of the Fine Gael parliamentary party raised significant concerns. The Minister for Rural Affairs
Michael Ring stated that they needed to heed the message from the electorate, that Fine Gael had resoundingly lost the election.
Equally, the Minister for Agriculture, Michael Creed, expressed his unease about a proposed deal with Fianna Fáil. Junior Minister John Paul
Phelan, apparently, stated that a coalition with Fianna Fáil would bring the opposite of stability.
A number of other ministers and former ministers privately expressed their reservations. It seemed as if these rumblings surfaced again during the virtual Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting, last week.
Michael Ring, in his own inimitable fashion, passionately, told the meeting that the grassroots of the party didn’t want to have anything to do with Fianna Fáil. He stressed that Fine Gael should set about planning for an election.
It is said that he was speaking for many within the Fine Gael parliamentary party, who feel that the party will be badly damaged if it goes back into government.
Indeed, Taoiseach Varadkar seemed to accept this possibility during his interview last week on Newstalk, when he said that Fine Gael could come back with as little as 20 seats, after the next election.
It’s clear that each of the three parties contain factions on both sides of the government formation argument.
In the Greens, a grouping, led by Eamon Ryan, are very much progressive regarding being in government, whereas there are quite a number who wish to force Fine Gael, or more particularly, Fianna Fáil to do business with Sinn Féin, so that they themselves can enjoy the relative cushiness of the opposition benches.
In Fianna Fáil, the anti-Fine Gael coalition grouping are led by John McGuinness and Éamon Ó Cuív, who want to do business with Sinn Féin. Apart from a few leading frontbenchers in Fianna Fáil, there may very well be a sizeable number in their ranks who are keeping their powder dry, in the hope that, come government formation, they might just get the nod for a cabinet or junior ministry, from Micheál.
In Fine Gael, the choice is much more stark than in the other two parties. There are a number of ministers and junior ministers who know very well that the writing is on the wall for them personally. Some of them have been unfairly referred to as ‘dead men, and women, walking’.
Opposition
Undoubtedly, the figures don’t stack up for quite a number of incumbents in Fine Gael. With 15 Cabinet positions available, Fine Gael, at best, will probably hold six. A similar position pertains in the junior ranks. This means that quite a number of high-profile ministers will not be reappointed, if government formation bear fruit.
And, no one knows this better than some of the particular individuals concerned. So, we shouldn’t be too surprised that quite a number, within the Fine Gael ministerial ranks, are none too favourably disposed to the proposed groundbreaking government being formed.
The findings from yesterday’s poll in our sister paper, the Irish Mail on Sunday, would copperfasten their opposition to this three-party conglomerate, since it suggests that an early election would favour Fine Gael and thereby their chances of retaining their high-profile ministerial roles.
The poll suggests that Fine Gael would be the number-one party post-election if a poll was held now... there wouldn’t be quite so many ministerial job losses in that scenario.
It’s quite clear, therefore that if, eventually, a Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green-led government is formed, you can take it that many of the dispossessed within Fine Gael will become touchstones of dissent, smouldering on the backbenches in Leinster House.