The two Martins, and how Catherine could foil Micheál’s big day
MICHEÁL Martin is on the cusp of becoming Taoiseach, but he is likely to endure many sleepless nights over the next week or so. It’s not just likely to be because of worry at the enormity of the task facing him should he attain his long-sought-after new role. His biggest fear may be that the cup could be snatched from his lips and that he will not taste his biggest success.
The Fianna Fáil leader can be highly confident that he will win over the rest of his party to support the coalition arrangements – having carried the parliamentary party easily on Monday evening. The rumblings among his party’s grassroots are unlikely to get louder and few are likely to follow Eamon Ó Cuiv. Martin can also be highly confident that Fine Gael will opt to enter government; the voting structures within that party making that outcome near certain.
Endorsement
But in an era where little seems to work out as expected, he cannot be overly confident about the likelihood of the Green Party taking the three places at the Cabinet table that have been set for it, especially when two-thirds of the members of that party have to vote in favour of the deal by Friday week.
One wonders what those estimated 2,500 members make of what is going on at the top of their party. As we know, the Greens’ negotiating team has agreed a plan for government, but three of its 12 TDs abstained when it came to endorsement at Monday evening’s parliamentary party meeting. When those who stand most to benefit their careers have doubts, then what will the idealists in the membership think?
Almost incredibly, one of the negotiating team, the very impressive new TD Neasa Hourigan, abstained on the vote. Some members of the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael negotiating teams were privately stunned by this news when told. Other members of the Green negotiating team sought solace in the fact that the three had not opposed it. That’s true, but abstention on such an important issue remains a significant decision in itself, and could be described, at best, as a cop-out. At worst it, could be interpreted as a nod to the wise.
Something has to be made of the fact that Francis Noel Duffy, the husband of deputy leader Catherine Martin, was one of the three who didn’t approve the deal. To deny the significance of that on the grounds that Martin and Duffy are individuals who can make their own decisions would be somewhat naïve, especially when Martin is positioning herself for a leadership run to replace Eamon Ryan. It is fair to wonder, even assume, if his was a proxy method for her disowning the deal, no matter what she says.
Her own endorsement of the deal, released late on Monday evening, was wishy-washy at best, saying: ‘I am... satisfied the deal negotiated was the best achievable and that it includes some worthwhile and transformative policies… It is vital to ensure that our party’s independence and core values are never undermined or weakened by participation in government.’
This must have been like catnip to the vocal dissenters among the membership, people who put their ideological beliefs ahead of the reality that the majority of Green voters – at least according to the latest Irish Times opinion poll – want the party in government.
Even if Martin’s tepid endorsement helps to secure the majority for going into government, it can still be read like a hand being placed on the plug, ready to be pulled at almost any time if the Greens – or her as minister – don’t get their way. That could come as early as October when one of the most difficult budgets in the history of the State will have to be put before the Dáil. Monday’s Programme for Government document was extraordinarily vague as to what money would be spent on the wishlist produced and how it would be raised. There will be a two-stage economic recovery process outlined by the new government if confirmed, the first part coming in July but the big commitments to be made in October.
Catastrophe
It is arguable that there isn’t enough visibility yet on the extent of our economic catastrophe or the likelihood of recovery, and as such it is almost impossible to make many decisions on what money should be spent and where.
However, it is also clear that much has to be done immediately to give more businesses a fair chance of saving themselves from collapse and keeping jobs, and that requires government action such as promising that the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme extends well beyond this August. That, however, might be the easy bit, with rows looming as to whether other spending will be green enough to suit the Greens.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are selling this Programme for Government on the basis that it will provide political stability for the country at a most dangerous and uncertain time. But is it really doing that?
It has shown us a document that is full of woolly aspirations, with which many people would agree, but without sufficient information as to how they will be achieved and when.
It includes a rash of commissions and reviews to defer having to take tough decisions until a later date.
Time we don’t have.