Infection rate is down but brace for second surge
HEALTH chiefs have warned that a second surge of Covid-19 is inevitable despite the recent drop in Ireland’s infection rate.
Health Minister Stephen Donnelly delivered the stark news to the Dáil yesterday, but said there is hope that the expected spike in transmission will be localised and low.
The presumption is based on how the disease is working around the world.
‘We’re hoping it will be low. We’re hoping it might be localised geographically, but we have to be prepared within particular communities, particular counties, particular cities, for the prevalence rate to go up,’ said Mr Donnelly.
The Minister said that public health officials will continue to review data and evidence in advance of a decision on the appropriate stance regarding phase four which is now due to commence on August 10.
He made the comments as 20 new Covid cases were confirmed yesterday, bringing the total number to 25,845.
No new deaths from Covid-19 were reported yesterday.
The Health Minister added that the R number, which measures the average number of people each Covid-19 patient infects, has fallen to between 0.7 and 1.4 and has been stabilising.
Concerns had been raised that the R number in Ireland was increasing last week, when the figure hovered between 1.2 and 1.8.
The Wicklow TD praised the efforts of the Irish public to suppress the virus, attributing the decline in the R number to widespread observance of public health guidelines.
‘Stabilisation is linked to renewed efforts from the public from two weeks ago,’ he said
‘And we know critically where the vast majority of cases are and these are currently being contacted,’ he added.
Sinn Féin TD David Cullinane also warned the Dáil that people would die prematurely without a Covid and non-Covid care plan.
In response, Minister Donnelly said the HSE and Department of Health were working on a winter health plan, adding that the prospective plan would be ‘like nothing we’ve ever seen before’.
Meanwhile, Labour Party TD Ged Nash has called for the flu vaccine to be provided to everyone free of charge.
In Northern Ireland, there have been no further coronavirus deaths recorded for an 11th consecutive day. The official death toll remains at 556.
There are 15 new cases confirmed, taking the total number of cases in the region to 5,891.
Nine patients with Covid-19 are currently being treated in hospital, with two in intensive care.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) said data suggests that 80% of Covid-19 infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe requiring oxygen, and 5% are critical, requiring ventilation.
Speaking on Thursday, Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET), warned against complacency as the Department of Health released positive figures regarding Ireland’s infection rate.
Prof. Nolan cautioned: ‘That the R value has decreased is welcome news. However, it is tempered by the fact that this novel virus is still with us, and it only needs our complacency to spread widely once again as it wants to do.’
Mr Donnelly was questioned by Opposition politicians about the Government’s plan to recommence non-Covid-19 healthcare over the coming months as the service adjusts to the reality of operating alongside the virus.