DERMOT AHERN COLUMN
What we have learned from Ivana’s by-election win
MANY people, including myself, felt from the start that the Dublin Bay South by-election was Fine Gael’s to lose. But what happened in the meantime has confounded most observers. From day one of the campaign, the normal predictions were thrown out the window. I put this down to two main reasons. Firstly, FG decided to bypass the controversial, but high-profile, Kate O’Connell in favour of James Geoghegan.
To me, this was a huge mistake. It smacked of arrogance trumping hard political reality. While there are many in FG whom she may have rubbed up the wrong way, she is clearly popular within the constituency. Her name apparently kept coming up on the doorsteps.
It was laughable to see all the non-FG candidates tripping over themselves to visit O’Connell in her pharmacy for a photo opportunity. The FG party faithful will undoubtedly question the decision of Leo Varadkar and his senior ministers to acquiesce in the choice of Geoghegan over O’Connell. Did they not do polling, to test the mood of the voters in the constituency? In fairness to Geoghegan, he was subjected to very unfair, and unwarranted criticism. It could even be said he was targeted by reverse misogyny.
Formidable
The other significant element in upsetting the political applecart was the choice of Ivana Bacik for Labour. From day one, her candidacy caught the mood of the electorate in the constituency. It quickly became clear that the female vote was going to be a key battleground. And no better person than Bacik to cultivate that group.
As Minister for Justice, I had many interactions with Ivana, who was Labour’s spokesperson for Justice in the Seanad. She was one of the most able and formidable debaters I had to deal with in that portfolio.
It is no real surprise that, in this latest contest, she has come up ‘on the inside rail’ to overtake the two supposed favourites, FG’s Geoghegan snd SF’s Lynn Boylan. Her profile and background particularly suits the electorate in the Dublin Bay South constituency. She was, without doubt, going to eat into FG’s vote, especially female FG voters.
So, what implications does the result in Dublin Bay South have for the political scene? Undoubtedly, it will be a huge fillip for Labour in that Bacik’s performance was way ahead of their wildest dreams. But, if I was them, I wouldn’t lose the run of myself. Her success is more to do with her stature as a candidate than anything to do with the voters of Dublin Bay South embracing Labour’s policies.
For Sinn Féin, while they didn’t win, their performance does demonstrate that they continue to hoover up votes from the disaffected. Their task for the future is to chip away at the middle cohort of the electorate, something which was difficult in this particular constituency.
For FG, it was nothing short of a disaster. Much of the blame must fall on the shoulders of Varadkar and those around him for their choice of candidate. With no disrespect to Geoghegan, he was the wrong pick. It seems that the the FG leadership could not rise above the rancour between it and Kate O’Connell. Of course, they will say that they could not interfere with the choice of the local FG organisation in the constituency. And, that O’Connell took herself off the pitch. But, O’Connell knew quite well that she was not wanted. Especially, when just a few weeks before the surprise calling of the by-election, she rather rashly lacerated Varadkar on the public airwaves.
There was no chance for her after that. If Varadkar really wanted O’Connell, the rest of the troops would have been able to read the tea leaves. FG also dropped a clanger by making the battle out to be one between FG and SF. Even towards the end of the campaign, when it was clear that their main danger was coming from Bacik, they continued to concentrate on their perceived duty to take down SF. While I’d be the last person to defend SF, negative tactics such as used by FG against SF during this campaign no longer impress most voters.
The Greens performed poorly but they have a good candidate for future battles.
The election for Fianna Fáil has been an unmitigated disaster. Their candidate Deirdre Conroy never made an impression. Much will be made of the implications for Jim O’Callaghan’s prospects for future leadership, and even for his own seat in that constituency. And questions will also be asked about the Taoiseach’s political longevity. Martin’s detractors in his party will be baying for blood.
But Conroy’s performance shows that FF’s problems in Dublin are much more serious than they might realise. For many years, even during Bertie Ahern’s reign, FF’s difficulties in the capital were plain to see. Having canvassed there for the party in many elections, over the years, non-Dublin TDs like me could clearly see how, apart from a few exceptions, the local organisations were literally nonexistent. High-profile FF figures had their own clique around them, working for their master, but not particularly for the wellbeing of the wider party.
We can expect much internal upheaval in FF after this byelection. Despite the poor showing this time, it is unlikely that the minuscule vote Conroy got will be replicated in a future general election. The question is, will Jim O Callaghan bring their percentage back up to double figures, sufficient to retain his seat? Given his high profile he should do. But all of that speculation merely masks the serious underlying issues FF has.
Naive
It has a huge job ahead to persuade the electorate, especially in Dublin, that the party stands for something. Much of the weekend media commentary involving FF revolved around the leadership of Martin. It’s ironic, given its poor showing, that Fianna Fáil became the big story over the weekend, to such an extent that it tended to knock the victor, Ivana Bacik, off the headlines. Those in FF who think that its star will rise again once they change their leader are naive in the extreme. Their problems are much more fundamental. I could not disagree with anything the existing FF TD in the Dublin Bay South constituency, Jim O’Callaghan, said in an interview yesterday. He stressed that the FF party must find out why it does not seem to connect with the wider public.
In reality, it has suffered politically because it has been associated with government, whether in office or on the opposition benches, for the last few decades. If the party is to regain any of its former stature, it needs an extended period in real opposition, in the traditional sense. Consensus politics may have been good for the country, but it has been very bad for Fianna Fáil as a political party.
The result in this by-election will have much wider implications than was originally anticipated. But it again reminds me of what I have always maintained within my own party: That elections are all about ‘candidate, candidate, candidate’.
It goes without saying that well thought out policies are vital in letting the public know where any party stands. But, what is just as important is the choice of the correct candidate to suit the mood of a particular constituency. And, sometimes, it is not wise to rely on a local party organisation to pick the best candidate. Party HQs have to dispassionately use their influence. In this by-election, the Labour organisation was lucky to have someone of the ability of Bacik.
The result is, yet again, a salutary lesson to all the other parties. The right candidate is vital.