WHO ARE THE ALTERNATIVES TO MICHEÁL?
IT represents a sinister sea change when they leave the hedge and start to shoot openly at the leader. This, however, is where Micheál finds himself. All the bullets are missing their target because the shooters are not that good, but all it takes is for them to get lucky once … Even the kindest are putting, at best, a collar of a year and a half on his term of office. But the main problem identified by the declining ranks of Martin supporters is the simple one of what is the alternative? There are many barons in Fianna Fáil but there appears to be an absence of alternative kings. So, now that the shooting has started, who are the alternatives in Fianna Fáil’s leadership race?
THE CORK VARIANT
Michael McGrath – Definitely not the Queen of Hearts
IF he was applying for the job of Secretary General in the Department of Health or Finance, the masterful McGrath would win the race hands down. Being the leader of a political movement is a different affair. That said, McGrath’s achievement in surviving and surpassing Micheál in the internecine battles of Cork South Central are indicative of a wily steeliness. He is also just about the only candidate who has managed a fully successful transition to ministerial office. But that which makes for a successful mandarin does not apply to the theatre of political dreams. His occasionally tense relations with Fianna Fáil colleagues has led to Michael acquiring the somewhat cruel nickname amongst some of being ‘the Cork variant’. The real fear is not so much that he might be a clone of Micheál Martin but that he might be Fianna Fáil’s Brendan Howlin. One source dolefully noted: ‘Michael might be many things, mostly grim but he is definitely not the Queen of Hearts we so badly need.’
LEADERSHIP FACTOR 6/10
THE ENFORCER Barry Cowen – The Knave of Spades
HE would be the choice of the Country and Western wing of Fianna Fáil in a heartbeat, but their numbers are declining faster than FF’s poll ratings. Had he not been the shortestlived Agriculture Minister in the history of the State, he would definitely have been a contender. The unfortunate dénouement of that stint in power means a somewhat gun-shy party would not be at all enthused by the notion of taking a punt on the Cowen team. Despite an allegedly dour public
BIG JIM … A PANTOMIME KING? The Ace of Spades
THOSE who have leadership ambitions in Fianna Fáil and those who want to stay in the leadership in Fianna Fáil are equally pleased by the party’s performance under ‘Big Jim’ O’Callaghan. Of course, like all lawlibrary aristocrats Jim deftly removed himself from the post electoral blame-game. However, the apple of the FF backbencher’s eye has been bruised by a performance that inflicted more damage persona, indicated by the absence of photographs of a smiling Barry, something of the cavalier spirit attaches itself to the nature of Cowen. This, however, is an age of Puritanism which is bad for the heads and long-term career prospects of cavaliers.
The suspicion is that Barry might yet be best deployed as a form of internal Fianna Fáil enforcer, a chillier FF variant of Phil Hogan if you like.
LEADERSHIP FACTOR 5/10
(docked two points for early dismissal
from the field of ministerial play) on FF and the candidate than necessary. One source icily noted: ‘The jury is out on Big Jim. Is he a pantomime horse, the real deal or simply a stalking horse for smarter fellows.’ He is, they added, ‘a little like the dish of choice for that woman in a restaurant who doesn’t know what she wants but has to pick something before the gaff closes’. In the current ‘needs must’ scenario, where the alternative may be Michael McGrath, ‘Big Jim’s’ time as the alternative leader in waiting may still live. But when it comes to Micheal’s ‘Ace of Spades, like the party, signs of life
are fitful. LEADERSHIP FACTOR 5/10
THE JOKER Darragh O’Brien
HIS entry into the Fianna Fáil leadership stakes has been cruelly compared to a masterful ploy by Charlie Haughey, who on one famous occasion on being beset by challengers introduced an utter dimwit into their ranks. The notion of the man in question being elected was enough to terrify the others into silence. Such an analysis is a bit harsh on Darragh who, whatever about direction and focus, has shown vim, vigour and bounce in Housing. The jury is still out on the more technically difficult question of whether the various gyrations will actually achieve anything. O’Brien the Joker could be the wild card that changes the game out of left field. The beleaguered Housing Minister has a similar timeframe to Micheál in terms of making a defining mark. Should he do so, his Tigger-style enthusiasm may be the last thing left to revive the cooling Fianna Fáil corpse. LEADERSHIP FACTOR 4/10
THE WILD CARD
John McGuinness HIS status as a twodecade-long voice in the wilderness means that McGuinness has no connection to the current regime, or the regime before it, the regime before that or the regime before that. So having accurately prophesied the party’s decline for the last two decades, will he be rewarded for his prescience by being chosen as its new leader? Yes, you’re thinking what we are thinking, and you are correct. McGuinness would bring a radical questioning and difficult voice to Irish politics. So yes, you are right, there is no chance of that happening. Well, until FF are reduced to six seats.
LEADERSHIP FACTOR 2/10
(six points docked for numerous expressions of dissent and indifference)