Budget gifts for younger voters show Government concern over the rise of SF
MUCH of the Budget commentary honed in on the fact that the Government specifically targeted initiatives at the younger voters: 50% discount on public transport for 19-to-23-year-olds, increases in college grants and free contraception for females aged 17-25.
I cannot remember a previous budget which handed out such goodies to young people, as this one did. It appears as if the Government parties are trying to put a dent in the seemingly inexorable rise of Sinn Féin in the polls, especially with the younger voters.
The one Achilles’ heel in the Government’s plan to target young people was the surprising omission, in the Budget, of any help for young renters. Sinn Féin and the rest of the Opposition concentrated their attacks on this glaring political mistake.
If we are to believe the polls recently, the next election is all over, bar the shouting. Sinn Féin is a ‘shoo-in’.
Even some media outlets, normally vehemently against the Shinners, are building up Mary Lou McDonald as being the Taoiseach-in-waiting.
Posturing
So, Minister Paschal Donohoe and his colleague Michael McGrath have used their Budget to show the younger voter that their respective parties provide an alternative to the ‘all things to all men and women’ posturing of Sinn Féin.
Undoubtedly, McDonald and her party are gaining in the polls because they can criticise everything, while not being put under the same critical spotlight about their own promises as the Government are.
As I’ve always said, it’s easy to be the political hurler on the ditch, while on the Opposition benches. It is far more difficult when one is in government, having to be careful making commitments knowing that the finances available are finite.
The fact is that the big two parties in government at the moment are suffering because they are in office for so long.
Fine Gael has been in government, in one guise or another, for the last ten years. Fianna Fáil seems as if it has been in government forever.
Even when Fianna Fáil was banished to the Opposition benches, it was politically tarred with the same brush as the incumbent Fine Gael, mainly because of the confidence and supply arrangement they entered into together. To the average floating voter, there is not much difference between the two. The longer this continues, the more it plays into Sinn Féin’s hands. Hence, the latter’s heady heights in the polls.
Sinn Féin knows that if it nuances and tones down its message between now and the next election, it can be in the driving seat for negotiations to form the next government after the votes are counted.
We can expect the party to become even more careful in its criticisms of the Government, just in case they allow the Coalition parties an opportunity to come back hard on them.
‘Steady as she goes’ will be the mantra. ‘No need to go too hard. Let the Government make their own mistakes and it’ll fall into our laps.’
Going on the poll figures, Sinn Féin is coming closer and closer to being able to put together a left-wing grouping of diverse characters.
And this is why the big two parties in Government are fighting back. The political battleground in the coming decade will be for the hearts, minds and votes of the younger voters.
Hence, the numbers of goodies in last week’s Budget for the younger population.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have now finally accepted that constant referring to the dark and murky past of the Shinners is not cutting the mustard with the younger voter. Indeed, it seems as if such a tactic can even be counterproductive. The young, apparently, are not interested in the past wrongdoings of leading members in the Sinn Féin ranks.
Any research my party carried out, over the years, showed that the general public were never too much interested in what we did for them, in the past.
For instance, a lot of people in my party’s ranks thought we would get great kudos and votes if we provided world-class motorways all around the country. Not a bit of it!
As elections approached, all the voting public were interested in was what were we going to do for them in the future. It seems as if younger voters are no different. They are only looking at the future tense.
Hence, the populist stances adopted by leading spokespeople in Sinn Féin are clearly impressing the younger cohorts, who are feeling let down by the establishment parties.
As long as Sinn Féin is in Opposition, it will continue to be seen as anti-establishment. Once it goes into government, I would expect that it will become just like every other mainstream political party. Despite Sinn Féin’s protestations, they will assimilate seamlessly into the governmental apparatus.
Look what happened to former members of the Workers’ Party, under the softer name of Democratic Left, when they joined the Fine Gael/Labour Party coalition in the mid-1990s.
Difficult
The comrades made the transition from opposition to government with consummate ease. For instance, when the former radical Proinsias De Rossa became Social Welfare Minister, to the surprise of many, instead of wrecking the place, he became an excellent minister, more than willing to make the hard choices that were necessary while in Cabinet.
Sinn Féin, I expect, if it gets into government after the next election, will similarly make that transition. But, then, the political downside for the party will be that, once it begins to make difficult decisions, it will be lumped in with the so-called establishment parties.
So, while the party is in Opposition, its members should enjoy it. Ascending to government may bring very harsh criticism on the political issues of the day. And they are not used to that. Sinn Féin should be careful what it might wish for.
Between now and the next election, we can expect many more attempts by Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens to reach out to the young and other potential floating voters. The big two parties know their only chance of turning their fortunes around is to stick together until the next election. And, very possibly, after the election as well.
Is it any wonder that Ministers Donohoe and McGrath are tied at the hip?