UP and RUNNING
CHAMPIONSHIP ALREADY THROWING UP A SERIES OF FASCINATING SUB-PLOTS
WE may be just four weeks into the footballing summer, but it has already served to illuminate. Kerry’s win over Cork on Saturday evening ensured that every team has finally shaken a leg and, while the consensus is that it will not really ignite until the AllIreland quarter-final round at the end of June, enough has already happened to give us a sense of the shape of things to come.
Tyrone’s grasp on the Sam Maguire has loosened, Mayo are shaping up once more as the team that can rally though the back door, Dublin have not gone away, while Kerry shoulder the burden of expectation.
Here are four things to ponder from what we have seen so far…
A MARKED MAN
It is hard to recall the build-up to a Championship where so much focus has fallen on one player, but then David Clifford is not just any player.
His form in the League sizzled, racking up 5-28, and that meant the Kerry star was flash-mobbed at the end of every game, but he may have to grow accustomed to that phenomenon occurring during game-time for the rest of the season.
It is likely that his torching of Mayo’s Padraig O’Hora in the League final will be the last time we will see Clifford in a one-onone battle, and Cork offered a sign of things to come on Saturday when Sean Powter sat in front of the Kerry full-forward, while Ian Maguire sat in the space to stop any support runs from deep.
It is likely that Clifford will face variations of that set-up for the remainder of the Championship, but the price that will have to be factored in by the opposition is that it will limit their ability to expose Kerry’s fragility on restarts – Cork won two of Kerry’s kick-outs, while losing 13 of their own – and may leave their forward lines under-resourced.
The top teams will transition much more quickly than Cork managed but, even so, Clifford’s main impact could be in dictating how Kerry’s opponents set up rather than in the numbers he will post on the board.
The price is that he may have to sacrifice some personal glory. Currently, he is the raging-hot 15/8 favourite to be voted footballer of the year, which hardly represents value given the likely focus on limiting his impact.
However, he will happily settle for one of his teammates getting their hands on that gong, given that it is an honour usually reserved for the Championship-winning team.
A NEW LEAF
THE talk all spring, obviously ignited by their lightning League start, was of how Armagh under Kieran McGeeney (below) had emerged as the team most likely to break up the cosy northern cartel of Donegal, Monaghan and Tyrone. For all the talk of Ulster football’s renowned democracy, those three counties have won 12 of the last 13 championships, while in the process becoming semi-permanent residents of football’s top flight. The irony is that it is a team from outside Division One that is now threatening the top order and that is based on more than Derry’s 11-point mauling of Tyrone this month. Since Rory Gallagher’s appointment, they have been coming strong for the past three seasons. Derry’s 67% win-rate under Gallagher surpasses the other three in that time, with Tyrone at 54%, Donegal 50% and Monaghan 35%.
Of course, that superior win-rate can be explained by the fact that they are playing lower-tier football, but they have shown in the Championship that they were at the same level of their supposed superiors, losing to Armagh and Donegal – the latter a game they controlled for long periods – in one-score games.
Having laid Tyrone to rest, if they are to win a first Ulster title in 24 years they will have to take out Monaghan and Donegal, which would surely make it the hardest-won Anglo-Celt in modern times. And, if they don’t, well they will be a team to be reckoned with in the qualifiers.
QUALIFIED SUCCESS
NEXT Monday, the Sam Maguire teams beaten in the provincial championships will finally get to know who they face next. Already in the first-round draw drum are Kieran McGeeney’s Armagh, Tyrone, Mayo, Louth, Clare and Cork, with the likelihood they will be joined by Meath, unless the Royals can snap their losing streak against Dublin, and the losers of Monaghan/Derry. There remains the possibility of a preliminary-round draw limited to beaten provincial quarterfinalists – Armagh, Tyrone, Mayo, Louth and Clare – but for that to happen either Westmeath have to shock Kildare this weekend or Tipperary will have to cash in on home advantage to beat Limerick, ensuring a 17th team would enter the All-Ireland series. Irrespective of what happens, loaded with some high-end teams the qualifiers are set to go with a flourish.
THE CUP HALF EMPTY
THE last thing a competition that was an age in the concept phase needed was to be parked up for the past two years because of the Covid squeeze on the fixture schedule.
The realisation that it has finally arrived should dawn next week after the draw takes place, with the preliminary round scheduled for May 21/22.
And there will almost certainly have to be a preliminary round, unless both Westmeath and Tipperary win their games to qualify for the All-Ireland series, while the draw structure is a complex one.
It will be divided into northern/ southern sections which have yet to be finalised.
Antrim, Fermanagh, Down, Cavan, Sligo, Leitrim as well as perhaps London and Longford are likely for the northern section, with Waterford, Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Offaly, Laois, Tipperary and Westmeath possibly in the southern section.
A preliminary round is a necessity – and it will exclude those Tailteann Cup teams who reached their provincial semi-finals (Cavan, Sligo, Leitrim, Westmeath and Tipperary) from the draw as no more than seven teams can qualify for the quarter-finals, where New York are automatically entitled to a berth.
In a Championship that needs to get everything right, it is difficult not to question the wisdom of splitting the draw by geography, given that the vast majority of counties in the Tailteann Cup, have been failed by the provincial system in the first instance.
Offering up an open draw would have at least provided equivalence in format with the All-Ireland series, and the vibe it sends out is that this is a competition not worth its carbon footprint.