Thank the DUP and Boris for kickstarting Irish unity discussion

CONVERSATIONS about a united Ireland are set to intensify if Sinn Féin has its way. One of the things that will be interesting is how many people choose to engage with the discussion, both north and south of the border. The signs are that other Irish political parties in the south are not going to shy away as they would have in previous decades, saying such talk was too early or too dangerous.

As the political plates on this island shift because of Brexit, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in particular are not going to want to be caught out in allowing Sinn Féin to be seen as setting the pace. Saying it’s not the right time for a discussion on a united Ireland may not cut it with the modern electorate in the Republic; they can’t take that chance in a global environment where nationalism is re-emerging as a populist force, and the question posed in response is: ‘So when is the right time?’

Referendum

Sinn Féin TD Louise O’Reilly, one of those who is closest to the party leader, Mary Lou McDonald, told me this week that the conversations about the possibilities are urgent and frequent and that preparatory work before a referendum needs to be done. I asked her about those conversations, and if this interest in the possibility was really widespread – that it wasn’t just limited to Sinn Féin members and activists. I asked if the public might not be far more interested in dealing with issues of housing, health and, especially, increases in the cost of living. Indeed those, rather than the national question, might be of more interest to many new Sinn Féin voters, present and future.

She insisted that the conversations were real and widespread, arguing that the electorate is well able to think about many different things simultaneously. Perhaps surprisingly, Fine Gael TD Neale Richmond, sitting in the same radio studio with her, agreed that the conversations are becoming more prevalent and that interest in the Republic in reunification is growing. And in a further surprise, Richmond agreed with much of what O’Reilly was suggesting: that we begin a process of discussion as to what a united Ireland might look like before we go about callis ing a referendum to (potentially) bring it about.

Richmond preferred to emphasise the potential of Micheál Martin’s Shared Island initiative as a means of doing this. This was interesting because it is seen by many as a Fianna Fáil endeavour, but even that emphasises how much tribal loyalties can be put aside in the common interest. And O’Reilly professed interest in its potential too. Both emphasised the need to find accommodation for those who regard themselves as British and who will continue to do so. The common ground they professed to find – and the civility of their discussion – was most encouraging… and interesting.

The opinion polls south of the border suggest that at least two thirds of the electorate are in favour of reunification. I suspect that if it came to a vote, the numbers might be even higher, notwithstanding the concerns many would have about the financing of the arrangement and the potential for dissident loyalist violence. This would be an emotional decision for many, a desire to right what many feel is a historical wrong.

But by the same emotional reasoning, many loyalists might not ever wish to agree to a united Ireland, no matter what form or accommodations might be suggested to them, no matter how rational the discussions or the reasons put forward.

A lot of persuasion remains necessary. McDonald was fast out of the traps after the Northern Ireland Assembly election results to talk about a referendum, perhaps taking place as close as five years from now. It was an interesting approach because most pundits said that the issue was not a big one for the electorate during the campaign, just as the UK-EU agreed protocol on a border in the Irish Sea was not a big issue for many, despite the DUP and TUV attempts to make it so.

And there may not be a majority in the North willing to agree to reunification in any event.

More pertinently, the nationalist vote in the elections came in at just under 40% (and Sinn Féin did not gain any extra seats). It not guaranteed that everyone who voted for Sinn Féin and the SDLP would immediately vote for a united Ireland, even if we assume the vast majority would. And those who vote for Alliance, the main winner of extra support in the election, would still need to be persuaded that they’d be better off in a united Ireland than a devolved, better-functioning, all-inclusive six-county Assembly and Executive.

There are two things that need to happen immediately. One is that the DUP has to cast aside sectarianism and accept the implementation of the rules that allow for Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill to be appointed First Minister, with the DUP taking the Deputy First Minister role.

The DUP cannot hide behind the pretence that it will only enter the Executive if the protocol is ditched. (It should not be forgotten that Sinn Féin refused to enter the Executive for years after the 2017 election because of issues relating to Irish language recognition. Both have form for obstruction.)

Frustrated

Secondly, the UK government under Boris Johnson has to defy its own instincts and act honourably about the protocol, which it negotiated itself under Johnson’s instruction, freely entered into and promoted to its electorate as an ‘oven-ready’ deal at the time of the UK’s 2019 general election. Since then it has tried to undermine it in an example of extreme bad faith.

Again, yesterday, we had reports that Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary, has become ‘frustrated’ that the EU will not concede ground on the protocol and is threatening to explode the UK-EU trade agreement as a result next week. We have heard these threats of self-harm before and they have not been acted upon. But they are disgraceful, especially as a majority of voters in Northern Ireland rejected Brexit in the 2016 referendum, and as the parties looking to ditch the protocol lost support in the Assembly elections.

The DUP believes that the protocol undermines the union. However, it is actually the behaviour of the DUP and TUV, aided by the dishonest words and intentions of the UK government, that is doing that.

They are the ones who, by their actions and ill-thought-out words, are undermining the very union at the heart of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Which is why we have to begin preparations for what will result from that.