Census figures a big boost for Sinn Féin
Q&A
CATHOLICS now outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time, census figures show. SEÁN O’DRISCOLL now asks: Do the political implications spell more trouble for the North – or a move towards a united Ireland?
WHAT IS GOING ON?
THE new 2021 Northern Ireland census it is causing a huge stir. There are more Catholics than Protestants in the North for the first time since the partition of this island, official figures show.
WHY IS THIS HISTORICALLY SIGNIFICANT?
WELL, Irish Catholics once made up the vast majority of this region, but bit by bit in the 17th century, they were pushed off their land by the Ulster plantation. The English crown, under King James I, decided that the only way to keep control of Ireland would be to ‘plant’ the confiscated lands with English farmers and landlords. The plantation of Ulster took place between 1609 and 1690 when the lands of the O’Neills, the O’Donnells and any of their friends were taken and granted to Scottish and English settlers.
WHY EXACTLY ARE CATHOLICS NOW IN A MAJORITY?
ACCORDING to Dr David Marshall, director of census and population statistics for Northern Ireland, the Catholic community is younger than the Protestant one.
In 2011, there was a higher number of births in the Catholic population than deaths, and the converse is true for the Protestant population. Dr Marshall said research has also found an increasing number of people who would have previously described themselves as Protestant now choose to identify as having no religion.
WHAT DOES THIS CENSUS RESULT MEAN POLITICALLY?
THE push for a referendum on a united Ireland has been given a huge boost. Under the Good Friday Agreement, it would need a yes vote on both sides of the border for this to become a reality.
WHAT DOES THE REFERENDUM REQUIRE IN NORTHERN IRELAND?
THE Good Friday Agreement states that if the British government’s Northern Ireland Secretary feels that there is likely a majority in favour of a united Ireland, they should call a referendum.
WHAT ARE THE CRITERIA BY WHICH THEY SHOULD ASSESS A CHANGE IN OPINION? CENSUS FIGURES? ASSEMBLY VOTES? ASSEMBLY SEATS?
THE Good Friday Agreement doesn’t lay down any criteria. So it’s up to the Northern Secretary to make the decision.
WHAT HAS SINN FÉIN’S REACTION TO THE CENSUS RESULTS BEEN?
IT IS thrilled. Francie Molloy MP was said on Twitter yesterday that the end of partition is coming. John Finucane MP called on the Irish Government to set up a Citizens’ Assembly ahead of a southern referendum on a united Ireland.
AND UNIONISTS?
A COMBINATION of very upset and repeating the line that just because someone is Catholic, it doesn’t mean they will vote nationalist. Loyalist Jamie Bryson said the results of the referendum would be irrelevant if the British parliament decides that Northern Ireland should stay in the UK.
SO IF THE MAJORITY VOTE IN FAVOUR OF A UNITED IRELAND, COULD THAT PROVOKE VIOLENCE?
YES. If a sizeable number of loyalists don’t accept the result, there could be trouble
WHERE DOES BREXIT FIT INTO ALL THIS?
THERE has been a huge surge in Irish passports in the North post-Brexit, with the number jumping by more than 60%. A third of people in Northern Ireland now hold an Irish passport. However, it doesn’t mean they are nationalists; they may simply want to be able to travel and work in the EU.
WHAT ABOUT THE FOREIGN POPULATION IN THE NORTH?
THE foreign-born population continues to rise and they are increasingly seeing EU membership as favourable, so they may well vote for a united Ireland.
HOW MANY ARE WE TALKING ABOUT?
A TOTAL of 4.6% had a main language other than English, the most prevalent being Polish (20,100) and Lithuanian.
IS THIS YET MORE GOOD NEWS FOR SINN FÉIN?
YES, the party’s plan for Ireland has been bolstered by the rise in the foreign and Catholic populations. Four months ago, Sinn Féin became the first nationalist/Catholic party to top the poll at the Northern Ireland Assembly elections. Unionists also lost their majority position among Northern Ireland MPs at the last House of Commons elections in 2019.