BLOCK OUT THE NOISE
Kenny’s Ireland need special focus to make a statement against table-topping Scots
AFTER the usurping of Ukraine as group leaders by Scotland, the links in the chain keeping the Republic of Ireland in the frame for a top-two Nations League finish have loosened that bit further.
Last October after Ireland floored Qatar 4-0 in Dublin, Stephen Kenny stated his ambition was to win the group and secure promotion to League A.
It was a bold declaration and one that carried some substance in the context of Ireland’s fight and fury against Portugal in Faro, and a group that didn’t appear to hide too many landmines.
While it is still mathematically possible for Ireland to achieve Kenny’s goal, the percentages are not in their favour. Even second place may be beyond them.
Kenny’s preferred result on Wednesday night in Glasgow was for a Ukraine victory. His second option was a draw.
He got neither. Instead, the 3-0 victory for Scotland has made it likely that Ireland will finish third in a four-team group. A draw in Hampden tomorrow in tandem with a Ukraine victory in Armenia — both scenarios are quite plausible — would end Ireland’s prospects of finishing first or second.
Worse, it would leave Ireland in the embarrassing position of needing something from the visit of Armenia on Tuesday night to avoid relegation to League C.
No one saw that coming when Ireland headed off to Yerevan in the summer.
Assuming Kenny’s men have it within them to keep Armenia at arm’s length at the Aviva, a hattrick of third-place campaigns under Kenny, two of them in the Nations League, would be a modest return. It would also have a knock-on effect for the chances of a back-door pass to the Euro 2024 play-offs.
Perhaps Ireland can still pull off Kenny’s stated goal.
To do so would require several breaks of the ball to fall their way. Then again, we all remember the dramatic end game to the Euro ’88 qualifiers, when the Scots did Ireland a favour in Bulgaria, and look what that ignited.
Two wins from their final two games would lift Ireland to 10 points which would be sufficient for first place if Ukraine fail to beat Armenia tomorrow afternoon, and then draw with the Scots in Krakow on Tuesday.
In that scenario, the table would look like this: Ireland 10 points, Scotland (10), Ukraine (9), Armenia (3), with Kenny’s men edging the Scots on the head-to-head. It may be a long shot, but outsiders do come in.
Before kick-off tomorrow, Kenny will have a better handle on Ireland’s fate as the ArmeniaUkraine game is an afternoon fixture. Should Ukraine win and move to 10 points, then Ireland cannot overtake them as they have lost and drawn with the top seeds already in the competition.
For Kenny, the focus is about being prepared for Scotland who will be on a high after their drubbing of Ukraine, perhaps feeling the strain from events in their homeland.
The Irish management and players watched clips from that tie yesterday morning, sifting for weaknesses — and strengths.
Significantly, the Scots have not lost a home game in the Nations League.
‘We’ve analysed areas where we think we can hurt them and get at them during the game, and we have analysed their threats that obviously we’ll be trying to nullify,’ said midfielder Josh Cullen yesterday.
‘It comes down to us to put all of that into practice on the day and if we can do that, we’re confident we can go and get another result.’
Kenny will have noted how Scotland’s raiding full-backs and their second-half aerial bombardment exposed Ukraine’s defensive frailties. All three goals came from set-pieces, two of them direct from corners. To curb that, the case for including Shane Duffy is worthy of debate.
Scotland have not lost a home game in the Nations League
He may be vulnerable when asked to pass the ball out of his penalty area but under the high ball, Duffy has few peers. Duffy also has the huge incentive to remind Scottish football folk of his qualities after his difficulties at Celtic.
While he hasn’t played this season for Fulham, he’s fit and we are only in September. It’s not like we’re in March and he’s been picking up splinters in his backside all winter.
Duffy’s club situation is similar to Matt Doherty at Spurs, who is favoured for the right wing-back position.
Kenny also has Dara O’Shea in the frame and the West Brom defender didn’t put a foot wrong in Lodz in June when Ireland stood tall against Ukraine.
It’s a close call but Duffy’s experience, and presence in both penalty areas, may swing selection his way.
If Kenny demands his central defenders play out from the back, then Nathan Collins and John Egan could step up for the lion’s share.
The Scots have plenty of armour, arguably more than Kenny.
Their starting XI against Ukraine included eight Premier League players, along with Craig Gordon (Hearts), Callum McGregor (Celtic and Jack Hendry (Cremonese).
In contrast, Kenny may have as few as four Premier League players in his starting XI.
A plus for the Ireland boss has been an uninterrupted build-up, and the presence of most of his first-choice players. It was a point touched on by Cullen, who has emerged as a dependable presence in the Irish midfield under Kenny.
‘The good thing is, we’ve had a full week. We met up together in camp on Sunday and had a full week’s preparation leading into the game to all get back on the same page and the same style that we obviously want to play with Ireland.
‘We’re ready to go now,’ he said. In other words, no excuses.