Before we talk of a Border poll we need to mend the North’s masssive levels of mistrust
THE census results, published in the North last week, brought my mind back to a speech I made all of 34 years ago. In 1988, as a relatively new TD, I was speaking in a Dáil debate on the 1985 Anglo Irish Agreement, a forerunner of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.
I referred to the belief in some quarters that a united Ireland could be achieved once the Catholics ‘outbred’ the Protestants. I stated that I had long held the view that that attitude was far too simplistic.
In my speech, I went on to give my views on the ‘formula’ used in the Anglo Irish Agreement to settle the constitutional situation in the North.
I said that ‘there is nothing more vague than the declaration in Article 1 (c) of the Agreement which states: if, in the future, a majority of the people in Northern Ireland wish for, and formally consent to, the establishment of a united Ireland, they (the two Governments) will introduce, and support, in their respective parliaments, legislation to give effect to that wish’.
I went on to say, ‘under this, a day could arrive when the nationalist people in the North become the numerical majority, 50%-plus-1’.
I questioned what would then happen to unionist people who, at that stage, would go from being a large majority in the North to being a large minority on the whole island, against their wishes? I added, ‘would that be an end to our troubles? I think not! It might only allow for the transfer of dominance from one community to another. This is not what I see as leading to a peaceful future on this island’.
I concluded that, rather than be transfixed by numbers, we would be better served by concentrating our efforts on, as the late John Hume constantly remarked, ‘uniting the people, rather than the territory, of the island’.
Surprise
Indeed, despite the achievement of peace flowing from the Good Friday Agreement, it, too, relied on the concept of 50%plus-1 to deal with the constitutional issue in the North.
Incidentally, it came as a big surprise to me that staunch nationalists, including Sinn Féin, accepted the fact that the question of holding a future border poll was vested solely in the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.
After that Agreement was achieved, I often stated that it was only as good as the paper it was written on unless both communities worked tirelessly to mend relations between the two. Alas, nearly 25 years on, the political class in the North seems to be just as divided as before.
As I said above: the census results reminded me of my thoughts all those years ago. In effect, the previously unimaginable has happened.
Leaving aside the facile perception that Catholic equals nationalist and Protestant equals unionist, it is incontrovertible that a major shift is happening in the societal make-up of the North, and that it will continue at a relatively quick pace.
Of course, one cannot extrapolate from the census results that a united Ireland is inevitable. Clearly, nowadays, the make-up of the North is no longer confined to the ‘two communities’. I’d hazard a guess that the rate of change gathered pace because of Brexit, and that a sizeable portion of the North’s population switched their views because they wanted to retain ties with the EU.
The fact that there has been a huge increase in applications for Irish passports from across the border is proof of this.
Those in the North who were implacably in favour of Brexit have actually done their unionist cause no favours. Neither have many of their political representatives tailored their policies to reach out to the new communities arriving from abroad over the past few years, nor to the more liberal direction being taken by the younger generation.
The views I expressed all those years ago are just as relevant today as then: that we cannot rely on a 50%-plus-1 formula to solve the divisions on our island.
The census results show that, while the North is becoming more diverse, the two main communities are perhaps even more polarised than heretofore.
This is mainly because those who hold the union dear can see that their previous ascendency is gradually waning and there is not much they can do about it.
Having travelled widely throughout the North recently, I have been struck by how many unionist areas trumpeted their unionist credentials.
I got the impression that, more than ever, they felt the need to festoon their neighbourhoods with red, white and blue, to the exclusion of others, especially making visitors like me feel uneasy.
In contrast, in most nationalist areas there didn’t appear to be as much desire to foist their cultural and political views on others by hoisting their flags and emblems on every corner.
It occurred to me that, outside of staunchly loyalist areas, the people felt more at ease in themselves, not needing to demonstrate their allegiances one way or the other.
And, yet, those in the nationalist community who aspire to a united Ireland need not think that ‘it is all over bar the shouting’.
Frozen
The institutions set up under the Good Friday Agreement are frozen. Until they are back working, there is little point in pushing for a border poll in the foreseeable future.
The fact that the North’s politicians cannot agree among themselves is indicative of huge roadblocks to Irish unity.
There is a massive mistrust which needs to be mended. Indeed, in regard to a future constitutional change in the North, there is also the not inconsiderable question: would people in the Republic vote for a united Ireland?
The census results merely demonstrate, yet again, how difficult the path ahead is.
That, rather than delighting in the inexorable move towards nationalist ascendency, that community has still a huge body of work ahead to convince more people that their way is the best.
But they also have to reach out to the unionist community to show that they will not make the same mistakes of domination and exclusion that were made in the past.
Groundwork should be carried out to prepare for the inevitable border poll, but those who look forward to that event have to be acutely sensitive to the unease in other sections of the community.