BEWARE THE TIDES OF MARCH
Regardless of any progress made under Kenny, if things go badly next spring it is game over...
POST-MATCH on Tuesday night, Stephen Kenny was asked by Sportsmail if the Republic of Ireland’s performance against Armenia would be good enough to finish in the top two in the Euro 2024 qualifiers?
Every Ireland manager worth his salt over the past 30 years would have given the same answer: No, it wasn’t. We need to do better.
Not Kenny. ‘I think it’s a good performance overall. A very good performance,’ he said.
What game was Kenny watching? Ireland were pedestrian and predictable for long spells in a Nations League game of modest quality.
They had one effort on target in the first half, from a set play, and were reliant on a moment of magic from Michael Obafemi to open up a two-goal lead.
By the way, that goal came via a direct 40-yard pass from a central defender. Nothing wrong with a long ball from the back every now and then, it seems.
And then? Ireland imploded as Armenia’s substitutions paid off and Conor Hourihane played a fatal pass across his own box to gift an equaliser.
It shouldn’t have happened, of course, but when a team is encouraged by its manager to engage in such a risky practice, moments of self-inflicted damage are inevitable.
As Ireland blew their advantage, it needed a late Robbie Brady penalty to spare blushes and possibly keep Kenny in a job.
Had it finished 2-2, there would have been a serious inquest into where Ireland are headed.
Would it have pushed the Dubliner over the edge? I don’t think so. But a 3-2 defeat and he was certainly finished.
As it is, even with the last-gasp 3-2 win, many in the FAI hierarchy are rattled after a third underwhelming crusade on Kenny’s watch. The Dubliner has had three campaigns, embracing 20 competitive games and there is no direct evidence that the team have progressed.
The FAI’s review into the Nations League campaign, under CEO Jonathan Hill, which is expected to be initiated at today’s board meeting, will be crucial to Kenny’s future.
Hill will lean on key figures such as Marc Canham, the FAI’s director of football since June, and director Packie Bonner, among others, before reporting back to the board with his observations.
Here are a couple of questions Hill might consider in his review: Is the manager getting the best out of what he has to work with? Is his management blueprint guaranteed to lead Ireland to a better place than where they are right now?
I’d also be intrigued to know
“Kenny seems unwilling to recognise some hard-nosed facts”
what Hill makes of the gap in Kenny’s coaching set-up.
The positive influence of Anthony Barry is clearly missed, while John Eustace, who left in early July, has not been replaced. Twelve weeks on, Kenny said he is ‘considering’ a new coach. It’s all very strange.
From the outside, I feel the FAI will keep faith with Kenny for the start of the Euro qualifiers — the draw is on Sunday week.
There are friendlies in November at home to Norway and away to Malta which are unlikely to have a bearing on the manager’s future, unless the latter kick sand in Irish eyes.
When the Euros come around in March, things will get serious, Kenny can’t afford another sluggish start, like the three campaigns so far. If that happens again, he’s a goner.
As it is, Kenny has been wounded, ironically by a win.
The hard-nosed facts of the Kenny reign which the manager seems, at times, unwilling to recognise, don’t make for pleasant reading.
Ireland have managed two third places out of four in the second division of the Nations League. That’s below expectations. They were a distant third of five in the World Cup and fell at the first hurdle in the Euro 2020 play-offs. Not good enough. On his watch, Ireland’s seeding for World Cups and Euro Championships has dropped from the second tier into the third — a crucial slippage. Not good enough. The world ranking was 34th before Kenny’s first match in September 2020 but has fallen to 47th.
But for late Brady penalty on Tuesday, Ireland would probably fall outside the top 50 next month. Not good enough, either. For all of Kenny’s declarations about blooding new players and connecting with fans, advancement is measured by improved results, a higher ranking, promotion and by qualification for major events.
If Ireland can play with a passing swagger along the way, great.
The primary objective must be to ensure the team is competitive and, so far, we’ve yet to see sustained evidence of that, for all the flashes of improvement.
At times, Ireland under Kenny have been excellent, notably away to Portugal, Ukraine and in the first half
“The world ranking of 34th before his first match in 2020 has fallen to 47th”
against Scotland last Saturday. Scotland at home in June was probably Kenny’s finest hour but there have been some disjointed displays too, times where Ireland looked bewildered. There was the entire first Nations League engagement in 2020; Luxembourg and Azerbaijan at home in the World Cup; Armenia home and away in the Nations League — Ireland were minutes away on Tuesday from dropping five points to the 92nd team in the world. Kenny has yet to find consistency in his selections, substitutions and performances. On Tuesday, why wasn’t Chiedozie Ogbene, Ireland’s top scorer at club level this season, given a minute on the pitch?
The manager talks about the team’s identity. Which one? The team that stood up to Portugal in Faro, or the one that laboured on Tuesday night?
Sportsmail understands some of the FAI blazers are getting twitchy. They expected Ireland to be in a better place by now.
They also expected a primary sponsor to be on board backing the team. Neither has come to pass. When Kenny was appointed in April 2020, he carried overwhelming support and goodwill from everyone in Irish football as he made the step from League of Ireland to the Ireland manager’s job. Certain sections of the media appeared to sign up as cheer-leaders.
Whatever Kenny asked for, he’s been given by the Association with no expense spared. At some point there has to be bang for the FAI’s buck. So far, the pay-back has been sparing.