Leinster look far too strong as Stade ring the changes
AT LEAST the weather forecast looks decent. Rugby supporters who this evening decide to spend couple of hours sitting in low temperatures at the Aviva Stadium will have the consolation of clear skies.
There will be little else in the way of jeopardy around Dublin 4. Leinster lead Pool 4 and are certainties to go through to the last 16, and a handsome victory here makes firmer the likelihood of a home tie come the knockout stages.
The strong team named by Leo Cullen – the returns of James Lowe and Tadhg Furlong have a Test significance – is a forbidding prospect for Stade Francais, but the visitors had given up on this match long before the Leinster side was named.
Their own starting team shows 11 changes from the side that drew with Clermont in the Top 14 last Sunday.
Stade sit third in the table of the best domestic league in the world, and having lost their first two games in Europe, they are taking a nakedly pragmatic approach to their visit to Dublin.
Stories of visiting French sides with little appetite for a battle regularly feature in the history of the European Cup, but that was back in a time when a couple of defeats meant a team were out of contention.
That’s no longer the case, thanks to the latest dog’s dinner iteration of a tournament dreamt up by the organisers for this season.
With four teams qualifying out of each pool, opportunities linger on – hence Munster’s interest on their visit to Toulon today despite a draw and a defeat from the opening rounds.
Yet Stade Francais are taking no chances, and what meagre hope they had with a fullstrength team doesn’t survive heavy rotation.
For a Leinster side looking to hit its best form, that ambition is supported by the returns of Lowe and Furlong.
Lowe hasn’t played since the World Cup quarter-final defeat to New Zealand back in October.
He returned to his native New Zealand for personal reasons, but his comeback will hearten Andy Farrell, too, following news of significant injuries to Mack Hansen and Jimmy O’Brien that will keep them out of the Six Nations.
The significance of the Leinster selection goes beyond the Test stars returning, as Ciarán Frawley is returned to No10 with Harry Byrne ruled out with an ankle injury.
Sam Prendergast is on the bench as back-up 10, and with Ross Byrne still out and the preliminary Six Nations squad named next week, Frawley’s selection gives him a big chance to make an impression.
He didn’t take it, frankly, when picked at out-half for the win against Sale last month, but the conditions for a big impression should be in place this evening.
A formidable pack complements a near-full strength backline. James Ryan continues his return with a place on the bench, meaning Garry Ringrose is captain.
The favourites for the competition are taking on a familiar form on the team-sheets – now they need to make the reputations live on the pitch.
In a fascinating first media outing in Leinster colours this week, Jacques Nienaber talked about rewiring the brains of his players when it comes to defending.
He gave a target of 14 weeks for players to adapt to his system. Given they are top of the league and should comfortably guarantee a home game in the last 16 of Europe, it means they have time to not only learn the South African’s methods, but there will be time and opportunity for most members of the squad to experience his ideas in a competitive environment.
By the end of the Six Nations and the onset of knock-out rugby in Europe, his methods should be ingrained. They’ll have to be.
‘If you keep on selecting the same players over and over, they will get the stimulus more and more and they will get good at it quicker, but that will be to the detriment of developing the squad. That’s the challenge we have,’ he explained.
Leinster have been erratic so far this season, which was perhaps inevitable given the departure of Stuart Lancaster, the arrival of Nienaber after the season started, and the unavoidable complications caused by the World Cup.
But the outcome here looks an inevitability, affording time and space for Nienaber’s methods to bed in, and for returning stars to find their stride.
Nienaber’s
style should be bedding in