Beware rogue referendums, especially the ones where women are subjected to mansplainers
OUTSIDE of a rogue tribunal there is nothing to set politicians in a state of greater unease than a rogue referendum. The political problem with a referendum gone wrong is that once the unravelling starts, like those bandwagons that come loose in Westerns and head ever more swiftly towards the cliffs, the situation cannot be controlled.
Unfortunately for the current Coalition as they try to exorcise the last bits of De Valera and John McQuaid out of the Constitution, the likelihood of such referenda increases if the voters are in the mood to teach governments a lesson at no cost to themselves.
In this case, despite the ongoing lead the Coalition has over a faltering Sinn Féin, the sullen electorate are definitely in the mood for a Trump-style outrage.
Given our actual option in the next election will be, to quote Josepha Madigan, the ‘Mary Lou Trump’ variant, the truth is they may not be in the humour to do it in a general election.
But a referendum provides a set of voters who always have an itchy trigger finger with the opportunity to fire a few shots over the head of a nervous Coalition. The chances of success have not been improved by a fairly stuttering beginning to the referendum on the family.
This was typified by Roderic O’Gorman’s warning that ‘any organisation that sees itself as progressive and as wanting to advance progressive change’ would have to explain why they do not support the Government’s plans. The démarche caused fury amongst wiser Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael figures who know all too well that Irish non-government organisations (NGOs) who spend their lucrative careers in a permanent state of simmering rage are sensitive beyond the norm.
In an indication of growing unease between the Coalition ‘partners’, a senior Fine Gael figure observed: ‘It was an utterly stupid comment, threatening to bring them into the headmaster’s office. He [O’Gorman] should not be let out of his box again for the duration of the campaign.’
They added: ‘We are going to have to build a civic coalition and cross-party support to secure this referendum.
‘We have to be careful if we are to build support.
‘Already you can hear women voters noting we are being mansplained. It’s not a good start.’
However, the decision of Ivana Bacik last week to back the two referenda on the family, albeit whilst backing away from them, may be a critical turning point.
Ivana may have been a reluctant convert but it eased the potential PR nightmare for the Coalition. If the three female leaders of Labour, Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats opposed it, the debates would have consisted of three male leaders telling the voters to support a proposal to improve the rights of women that three female leaders were opposing.
Ivana’s choice does not mean that a Coalition, wading gingerly through a political treacle of debates about whether throuples or the polyamorous qualify for family status in Dev’s Constitution, are not out of the political woods yet.
Referenda are always difficult, but they have become increasingly tricky for governments in the new millennium. This began in 2001 when, at the peak of Bertie’s popularity, the voters caused chaos across Europe after, despite all the billions we were receiving at a time when a billion totted up to something, 53.9% said No to Nice.
Afterwards, the then EU commissioner Charlie McCreevy said the rejection was a sign of a ‘healthy democracy’ where the electorate wouldn’t simply automatically vote yes. A less-than-happy government, which showed rather more intelligence than the UK after Brexit, began the grand old tradition of the referendum rerun where, after the voters have their fun, they do the ‘right’ thing a second time.
This was the case with the Nice referendum re-run a year later when voters, for no particularly good reason, reversed their decision with 59.9% voting yes.
But the electorate had gotten a taste of blood and in 2008 the then new Taoiseach Brian Cowen was rocked on his heels when 53.4% voted against the Lisbon Treaty.
The mood was not perhaps helped by McCreevy, who said he supported the Lisbon Treaty but hadn’t read it and that ‘no sane, sensible person’ would read it either. McCreevy was correct but voters like the appearance at least of diligence. In a reprise of Nice a year later, 58% voted yes, but the damage done to the confidence of the new administration was severe.
The new Enda Kenny administration was rocked back on its heels in 2011 when plans to increase the powers of Dáil committees to investigate malfeasance were heavily defeated with a 55.9% no vote.
It was, at the time, difficult to conceive how a referendum increasing the powers of the Dáil to investigate wrongdoing could be defeated.
Or that, at least, is what the then Fine Gael-Labour coalition, which was elected, with a record majority thought.
Intriguingly, given his critical stance on the current referenda, the Government’s proposal was routed when Michael McDowell, and an unlikely coalition of seven pretty antiquated former attorney generals, wrote a letter opposing the proposal. One should never underestimate the suspicion the Irish voter has towards politicians giving themselves extra powers... or opening up the bonnet of what constitutes a family.
A referendum on children’s rights in 2012, which was remarkably similar on the good intentions front, was passed but against the backdrop of a low turnout, and the Government was shocked by the 42% no vote.
There was an even greater shock in 2013 when, in what was termed ‘the unsinkable referendum’, 51.7% of Irish voters said they wanted to retain the Seanad.
Even the Seanad was astonished by its survival while the coalition certainly thought it would be impossible to lose a referendum abolishing political perks, privileges – and dinosaurs.
These events show we shouldn’t underestimate the capacity of the Irish voter to cock a snook at the desires of their political masters.
Governments can win referenda, but it is very difficult to secure the summertime synergy of idealism, rainbows and self-interest which secured the legalisation of gay marriage.
In further proof that even the most harmless of referenda can be lost, on the same day as the gay marriage referendum was won in Ireland in 2015, an overwhelming 73.1% of voters also rejected a proposal to reduce the age individuals could run for the Presidency to 21.
This meant there was some astonishment over the decision of the Government to hold a referendum on the dangerous ground of what constitutes a family after an initial aborted take-off in the autumn of 2023.
Now many TDs feel that their lucky escape last November has now been turned into an unwanted political dilemma.
Unease is especially high in the Coalition at the moment given that it is facing the dreaded war on two fronts where the conservatives and the progressives will vote against, and the middle will spend the day shopping in the garden centre. Though the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin have yet to come around, after an initial bout of pessimism, the Coalition has steadied somewhat. Privately, ministers always expected that nothing would be good enough for Sinn Féin, but when it came to Labour, the working assumption was that it would accept a modest proposal on the basis of something being better than nothing. Though they have yet to secure the political hand of Holly Cairns, confidence is growing that even without Holly, a simple message centred on the children of single mothers may secure at least a partial victory. The position was synthesised by Fine Gael TD Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, who said the referendums provide the electorate with the chance to replace a position that is ‘outdated and offensive for the women of Ireland and to make children equal irrespective of whether they are from married or unmarried families’. A loss of the two upcoming referendums would not be fatal, but a Government that needs to be hitting the local elections at full tilt does not need any further self-inflicted embarrassments. For now, when it comes to its ‘modest proposal’, it would be happy with securing one out of two and at least remove women from the kitchen or achieve equality for the children of single parents. After all, half a loaf and some cheering in the hall is better than no bread at all. Should they lose both and Leo and Micheál are left hanging around the count centre like a pair of political drowned rats – as a delighted Michael McDowell grins at the cameras and the nation’s throuples celebrate – the blame game over how on earth a new administration in a new millennium is still being haunted by the ghost of Dev will be interesting. One suspects that if we end up in a ‘the knives are out’ scenario and the referendum has to be rerun by the next government, Roderic O’Gorman, the Greens and their ‘legacy hunting’ will be top of the list. But at least Roderic and his party are well used to being there.
Voters like to cock a snook at their political masters’ desires