The Cabinet has shifted on immigration... and expect a hardening with an election due

BLINK and you’d have missed it. Late last Wednesday evening Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys stood up in the Dáil chamber and suggested that benefits for Ukrainians already in the country may be cut.

This, to be clear, would be going a step further than the already announced cuts for new arrivals into the country.

Her remarks represent an astonishing turnaround for the State in the space of a few short months.

From having the most generous set of benefits for Ukrainians across the EU, described as the ‘original sin’ by one Cabinet source, to floating the idea that their €232 entitlement might be cut down to just €38 per week marks quite the journey for the Government in relation to immigration.

For 18 months, the Government robustly defended its position on Ukrainian refugees.

But as the numbers slowly and inexorably crept up each month, communities found it increasingly difficult to cope.

And with multiple elections on the horizon and a volatile electorate to be faced, the position of the Government began to shift. Slowly at first, then rapidly.

Only last November, Tánaiste Micheál Martin said that changes to benefits for Ukrainians arriving into the country were not designed to deter them from coming.

But there were growing concerns over the limited availablity of accommodation, and the rising numbers of refugees and asylum seekers on these shores.

Capacity

As Taoiseach Leo Varadkar put it – while there was no limit on our compassion, there were limits to our capacity.

Allied to the arrivals of Ukrainians was the number of international protection applicants coming into the country, up from 4,000 a year on average pre-Covid to circa 13,000 now.

Although by comparison a much smaller number than the more than 100,000 Ukrainians who fled here, their arrivals were met with hostility in certain communities.

This wasn’t helped with what was seen as a slapdash approach to communication with communities by the Department of Integration.

In truth they were struggling just to get beds at all and didn’t have the time to manage a communications strategy.

Protests were mounted in a variety of locations, from East Wall in inner-city Dublin to rural Co. Clare.

At first the Government sought to portray the protests in a negative light, talking about the far right infiltrating (and this did and does happen on occasion) while also reminding people that they did not have a veto on who came into their communities.

But stories from places such as Westport, a tourism town, confirming it had lost 35% of its bed spaces to deal with the crisis illustrated how the story was affecting local businesses and the viability of rural Ireland. Mayo County Council passed a motion saying they no longer wanted to work with the Department of Integration.

Ministers and Government spokespeople also repeatedly denied that Ireland was being more generous than other EU countries because we were militarily neutral, and this was our alternative way to help Ukraine.

But eventually the grip slipped. Polling consistently showed it was one of the major issues for the voters, while TDs raised the issue repeatedly in both the Dáil and in private parliamentary meetings.

Suddenly the language changed. While not quite echoing the precise language of the far right, Ireland was ‘at capacity’ according to the Taoiseach.

While the Government has been at pains to say that they are not reacting to the Dublin riots and the multiple arson attacks, it is an unfortunate coincidence that the language and policy around immigration has noticeably hardened broadly in parallel with these events.

In short order, policy has changed. In mid-October, the Government suddenly announced that Ukrainians arriving in Ireland after midFebruary would no longer be allowed to claim the full €232 per week in social welfare. Neither would they be entitled to free accommodation in perpetuity.

Then discussions began on tightening up the international protection system.

Funds were set aside to build up the capacity of the system to expedite application processes. Countries were added to the safe list which would make it harder for international protection applicants to claim asylum in Ireland.

Last week, the State confirmed that it was looking for aircraft to be able to forcibly deport people and the Justice Minister was talking about ‘crackdowns’ and confirming that the gardaí were knocking on failed asylum seekers’ doors to make sure they had gone home.

And now, finally, the Government looks like it is considering slashing the benefits for Ukrainians who are already here.

Oh, and a communications plan is being put in place to ‘bust myths’ about immigration, with a separate fund for the 10 communities most affected by migration also set to be established. The sudden change of heart on Ukrainian policy in particular, reflects the fact that it is they, not the international protection applicants, who have put the most pressure on the system.

Through no fault of their own, their country was invaded by Russia and Ireland had one of the most generous social welfare systems to avail of. Coming here was a no-brainer. Who could blame them? But the mood across the country slowly started to turn.

One TD told me of an community gathering about the lack of GPs in the northwest. The meeting was dominated by locals, well-paid, salt-of-the-earth professionals and young parents, complaining that Ukrainians appeared to get everything, while they were struggling.

This story is replicated across the political system and whether you agree with it or not, the Government was always going to bend to these concerns, particularly with an election in sight.

Temporary

It’s not just the Government that has responded to the strain being put on the system.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald came out before Christmas and said that Ukrainians should have to apply for work permits if they wanted to stay here after the temporary protection directive ends next March in 2025.

The party then couldn’t seem to get its position straight for a week, before coming out and confirming that Ukrainians should be treated as international protection applicants or apply for work permits last week.

Speaking to Sinn Féin sources last week about this topic, I asked one if the more socially democratic TDs such as housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin were happy with this hardening of the party’s position.

One replied with a sly knowing smile as they walked away: ‘You’d have to ask Eoin that.’

The Irish political system, with its proportional representation electoral system is notoriously responsive to the needs of the voters. But by any stretch, the pivot by this Government and the opposition since October is a sight to behold.

Keep an eye out for a further hardening of language and policy as we get closer to a general election.