Melting POT
“If Fermanagh drop, no one will bat an eyelid” MIX OF LEAGUE AND TAILTEANN CUP PERMUTATIONS HAS SIDES FACING THE UNKNOWN
IF the Allianz Football League ever came up with a Manager of the Month award, Kieran Donnelly would be the clear front runner. When Fermanagh started out this season, they were overwhelming favourites to be relegated out of Division 2 for all kinds of reasons.
For starters they were perceived to have been punching above their weight in getting promoted last term. It didn’t help that they lost three of their most important and experienced players in the Jones brothers, Ryan and Conaill along with prolific fullforward Seán Quigley over the winter — all withdrawing due to work and travel commitments.
But in drawing with Meath and beating Kildare, they have defied the preseason odds which had them as favourites to be relegated — a status that has now been passed onto the Lilywhites and Louth.
But even if Fermanagh survive in Division 2, there is still a good chance that they will still not figure in this year’s Sam Maguire.
That is simply because the sense of jeopardy in the division is arguably as high as it was last year when Meath were relegated into the Tailteann Cup — which they won — despite securing their second-tier status.
It was viewed as something of a one-off and was the convoluted consequence of a number of unlikely events.
With Tailteann Cup winners Westmeath (guarnteed a spot in the Sam Maguire Cup race) failing to gain promotion from Division 3 and a lop-sided Connacht Championship ensuring that Division 4’s Sligo earned a place in the All-Ireland series, Meath were dumped into the Tailteann Cup after relegated Clare beat Cork in the Munster SFC.
Conventional thinking suggested that lightning would not strike twice but we are already halfway there.
Just like Connacht last year, a lower tier team looks set for a place in the All-Ireland series with Clare — outsiders to win promotion from Division 3 — Tipperary and Waterford all on the same side of the draw in Munster,
And while Meath have Division 2 status for now, it is hardly cemented in certainty.
Colm O’Rourke’s side had to come from behind to draw with Fermanagh and were outclassed by Armagh and if they drop out of Division 2, it will impact on the teams promoted from Division 3.
Already, because of the draw in Munster, the team that finishes runner up in Division 3 is likely to end up in the Tailteann Cup, while the likelihood is that the winner may also miss out on being a top-16 team for the Championship if the Royal County side are relegated.
In a worst case scenario, the team that finishes sixth in Division 2 could also end up in the Tailteann Cup.
For example, if Kildare or Louth are relegated along with Meath, the jeopardy for the team that
sixth increases. That is because Meath will have taken one of the League qualification places, while Kildare, Louth and Westmeath are all on the other side of the draw to Dublin in Leinster and one of those counties will get to the final, thereby qualifying for the All-Ireland series.
Of course, there are any number of permutations — Division 3 leaders Down are on the weaker side of the Ulster draw although Armagh still present a formidable obstacle — that will muddy the waters even when the League concludes as to the final line-up in the Sam Maguire.
It leaves many sides facing into the unknown.
In a recent interview with the Irish Daily Mail, Donnelly made the case that League positioning in spring should determine Championship status.
‘You have earned it by making that cut-off at the start of the year to be there,’ he said.
‘If that was in place, the Tailteann Cup would not be on your radar because you would know that you would be playing in the All-Ireland series from the off.’
It is reasonable to argue that there is enough at stake in the League without adding Championship status to the mix, but the flaw in Donnelly’s case is that it does not allow a space for the previous year’s winner of the Tailteann
Cup to enter the All-Ireland series if they are a Division 3 or 4 county.
And taking that reward from the tier two champions would seriously undermine the longterm future of the Tailteann Cup.
Yet, it is easy to understand Donnelly’s position. Unlike the other three provinces, there is no easy side to the Ulster SFC draw. This is his third season as manager and in the previous two Ulster campaigns, his team have been drawn against the then AllIreland title holders Tyrone in 2022 and Ulster champions in Derry last year with inevitable results.
And this year promises to offer no relief on that front, having been pitted against Armagh, so in reality their hard-earned
League status is their only route to the All-Ireland series. One tweak that might offer some form of protection to counties who have earned their place in the Sam Maguire by merit in the League is for provincial Championships to be seeded on League status. That would prevent the lopsided nature of the draw in Connacht last year and in Munster this year where lower tier teams qualify for the AllIreland series on the basis of good fortune rather than good League form.
Kerry and Clare were seeded by the Munster Council on the basis that they were last year’s finalists and went on opposite sides of the draw but had it been seeded on final League positions, Cork would have displaced Clare.
In that instance, the likelihood is that one of the League qualification places would be saved.
However, after losing two games Cork could feature in the Division 2 relegation dogfight and if the Rebels go down, then John Cleary’s team would be the big loser this spring.
Should that happen, they will end up playing Kerry in a Munster semi-final and defeat there would exclude them from the Sam Maguire Cup running for the first time in their history.
If that comes to pass, it would inevitably generate an outcry from those who believe that the big counties are entitled to play in the Sam Maguire.
But if a county like Fermanagh once more falls out of the All-Ireland series even though their form merits inclusion, no one will bat an eyelid.
And that makes for the strongest argument that the football Championship can only be truly reformed when it breaks the link completely with the failed provincial system.