Ireland need to crack Nations code
Another dreadful campaign would have a lasting impact...
UEFA’S League isn’t everyone’s glass of pastis but its importance can’t be underestimated ahead of tomorrow’s draw in Paris, and certainly not by the manager-less Republic of Ireland.
What’s at stake for Ireland in this UEFA event which will kick off for the fourth time in early September? Quite a lot.
For starters, Ireland now have two chances of promotion to the elite of League A, as either group winners or via a play-off next March if finishing group runners-up.
Just as there are rewards for coming either first or second, so there are penalties for finishing third (relegation play-off) or fourth (automatic relegation).
With four play-off places for the 2026 World Cup play-off up for grabs, there is every incentive to put in a decent shift.
To be sure of that back-door pass for a shot at the finals in North America, Ireland would need to finish second in their group.
In theory, this should be within Ireland’s reach as League B involves UEFA nations ranked 17 to 32. We’re not exactly up against the heavyweights.
Only, Ireland are barely a middleweight these days and have a wretched Nations League record as the only ever-presents in League B.
It’s one they need to improve on as rankings for the 2026 World Cup qualifying draw in December will be determined by where teams finish in the Nations League.
With 12 groups in the World Cup, Ireland must avoid a ranking of 25th or lower to be sure of second seed status in that draw. At the moment, they are 26th in the Nations League standings.
So far, Ireland have made minimal impact in the tournament that has yet to capture the imagination in the way the World Cup and European Championships do. Of their 16 games, Ireland’s record reads: W2 D6 L8.
Across all four divisions since the Nations League began, only Northern Ireland (one win), IceA land (zero wins) San Marino (zero wins), have won fewer games.
The first campaign in the autumn of 2018 appeared to catch everyone on the hop but it didn’t help Martin O’Neill or his players that the hangover of missing out on the World Cup finals was lingering.
Ireland were tanked by Wales in Cardiff, and also lost at home too, but did manage to draw twice to World Cup conquerors Denmark.
In 2020, Stephen Kenny lamented the impact of Covid-19 on his selections, but Ireland had enough quality to do better than run up three draws and three losses against Wales, Finland and Bulgaria. Two years later, Kenny declared he was targeting promotion but Ireland became involved in a scrap to avoid relegation after opening defeats away to Armenia and home to Ukraine.
The 3-0 win in Dublin over Scotland was a welcome relief and became the high-point of Kenny’s undistinguished reign. Third place out of four in the group was below expectations.
Following a grisly Euro 2024 campaign, where Ireland beat the part-timers of Gibraltar but lost to everyone else, it’s hard to make a case for Ireland to buck the Nations League trend of 2018, 2020 and 2022.
Maybe the manager-elect will strike a more upbeat boat. Ideally, the FAI delegation in Paris for the draw would include the manager but the process is dragging on longer than is ideal. For the moment, the nation holds its breath.
As for the potential opponents who lie in wait, we know Ireland will draw one of the top seeds, Austria, Czech Republic, Wales or England — three of whom are headed for the Euro 2024 finals this summer, with Wales seeking to join them via the play-offs next month.
Finland, Ukraine, Iceland and Norway are the second seeds, with Georgia, Greece, Turkey or Kazakhstan as fourth seeds. Of those eight, all bar Norway are engaged in the Euro play-offs.
FROM a commercial perspective, England would guarantee a 51,000 sell-out at the Aviva, while the prospect of playing at Wembley would stir the beast within every Irish player.
The Norwegians would be another ‘glamour’ draw, especially if their Premier League aces Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard were in attendance.
group involving England, Norway, 2-1 winners in Dublin in November, and Greece, who spanked Ireland home and away in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, would carry a health warning.
In terms of being competitive and challenging for top spot, Ireland would probably fancy their chances best against Wales, Iceland and Georgia.
Due to excessive travel, Kazakhstan can only be drawn in the same group as one of England, Iceland, Ireland or Wales.
The six games will be played across three windows, September 5-10, October 10-15 and November 14-19.
At the fourth attempt, Ireland have every means, motive and opportunity to finally build up a head of steam in the Nations League. They cannot afford another listless campaign.