Sinn Féin slumps to lowest level in 4 years

Party’s popularity plummets in poll, and Mary Lou’s too

SUPPORT for Sinn Féin has slumped to its lowest level since the last general election, in 2020.

The party has been struggling to adapt to public focus shifting from health and housing to immigration and justice.

An Ipsos B&A/Irish Times opinion poll found that support for Sinn Féin had dropped by six points to 28%, its lowest level since the election four years ago.

However, it remains the most popular party in the country.

A detailed breakdown of the poll shows that Sinn Féin remains the most popular party with young people, with 37% of those aged 18 to 24 and 41% of those aged 25 to 34 indicating they would give the party their first preference.

Sinn Féin’s base is clearly in working-class areas and it is most

Support for smaller parties grows

popular in the parts of Leinster outside of Dublin.

The poll also showed there was a slight boost for the Government parties. Fianna Fáil was unchanged at 20%, Fine Gael gained one point at 19% and the Green Party has risen two points to 5%.

Support also grew for the other small parties. The Social Democrats jumped two points to 4% while the Labour Party gained a point to also move to 4%.

Independent candidates, who have been gaining on the back of anti-immigration sentiment, remain a big political force heading into the next election, accounting for 20%.

Party headquarters across the political divide will be preparing for a crucial general election, which could be called as early as August, according to some Government insiders.

An election needs to be held by March 2025, but there are several factors influencing the prospect of an earlier poll. The European elections in June could trigger a byelection if successful sitting TDs vacate their Dáil seats.

Several Government sources have told the Irish Daily Mail that November was seen as the ‘accepted’ time for an election in recent months but that this was shifting earlier as they sensed weakness within Sinn Féin.

Around 25% of those polled were undecided about who they would give their vote to, meaning the campaign and the performance of the party leaders will be central to the outcome.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald’s popularity is also dropping, down four points to 38%. This puts her behind both Taoiseach Leo Varadkar (40%) and Tánaiste Micheál Martin (44%), who is the most popular political party leader.

Green Party leader Eamon Ryan’s popularity increased by two points to 20%.

Overall support for the Government increased by three points to 35%.

Speaking on Newstalk’s Pat Kenny Show, Mr Varadkar said that ‘opinion polls don’t predict the outcome’ of elections.

‘They didn’t for the last two, and we see, all across Europe, elections turning out very differently to the way the opinion polls say,’

‘It’s wide open and all to play for’

he said. ‘Leaving that aside, I think if you do look at the polls, and not just the one today – there’s been three in the last two weeks... they say that it’s wide open and it’s all to play for.’

Ms McDonald told The Irish Times in London yesterday that her party would analyse the recent trend of poor polling.

‘For me the big thing is, are we accurately and consistently communicating to people... but also our plans ahead?’ she said.

‘I think we are at the point now where people are asking: “What will Sinn Féin do?” They want more specifics. We will always have an eye and an ear for where the public mood is and, of course, we want to correct things and remain on a strong footing.’