Jumping into an election might look tempting... but I’d urge some caution
IN politics, it is said that timing is everything. That is certainly true in the context of the upcoming general election. All parties and individual politicians will have this consideration very much in mind in the months ahead.
I recently wrote here that the Coalition would go the full fiveyear term to March next year.
I was aware of Government backbenchers exhorting their respective leaders to cut and run earlier, given that Sinn Féin’s previous poll surge had not only stalled but reversed.
‘Strike while the iron is hot,’ I heard it said. ‘We won’t have a better opportunity to beat Sinn Féin before the end of our term.’
However, I felt the three party leaders in Government would want to get the fruits of the next budget into the pockets of voters before they go to the polls.
But my confidence i n that prediction is not as strong now as it was before.
This has been caused by the most recent poll which shows that Sinn Féin has dropped a whopping 6% since last September.
And that i ts erstwhile star performer, Mary Lou McDonald, has also seen a downward trend in her popularity, by 4%.
This leaves her trailing both Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin, the latter being way out in front.
Previously, s he had been regarded as head and shoulders above the rest.
Now, it seems the shine on Ms McDonald has begun to wear off.
Survival
This drop for Sinn Féin is all the more surprising when you consider that the poll was conducted during the period of euphoria surrounding the resurrection of the Northern Executive.
You can expect that, on the basis of the latest poll, the Government’s party leaders will be having their ears bent by their colleagues over the next while.
It’s often said that politicians hoping for an election are a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas.
But it all comes down to political survival. And, if they think that now i s the most opportune moment to get people to the voting booths, they will grasp it.
The recent polls showing a downward trend for Sinn Féin can only be regarded as a levelling off in voter attitudes.
Most political observers were surprised that a sizeable proportion of ‘Middle Ireland’ had been gravitating towards Sinn Féin.
No doubt this cohort was impressed by the party’s star media performers who, time and time again, honed in on perceived failures of the Coalition parties, such as housing, climate change, law and order, and immigration.
However, as soon as Sinn Féin members have had to explain their party’s policy positions on these i ssues, they have been exposed to much more critical public scrutiny.
For instance, I’d wager that Sinn Féin’s promise to bring average house values in Dublin down to around €300,000 has diminished the voters’ belief in the party’s ability to turn the housing market around.
It’s not even so much the issue of reducing the value of people’s houses. It’s that Sinn Féin is promising something that the people know it can’t deliver.
On issues such as climate change and i mmigration, Sinn Féin members have taken up one position after another.
Mary Lou McDonald and her team totally misread the mood of the public on l aw and order, especially around the November riots in Dublin city.
These missteps have raised questions with floating voters as to Sinn Féin’s ability to govern.
Then there’s the clear shift by Sinn Féin towards the centre, in order to position itself as a viable party of government. This has, no doubt, soured some of its more radical supporters, who may have moved elsewhere.
It’ s often said incumbent governments do not win elections – the opposition loses them. This is what happened in 2007.
Our outgoing government was pilloried in the polls, but because of a very poor campaign by the opposition, we were re- elected, against all predictions.
I wonder will this happen again this time around.
All of these difficulties for Sinn Féin may have emboldened the Coalition members to believe that sooner rather than later is the best time to call an election.
But a word of warning: Sinn Féin’s decline has not led to a commensurate rise in the poll standing of either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. They have stalled.
One would have expected that, l argely thanks to their huge budgetary l argesse i n recent weeks, the two main Government parties would have gone from strength to strength.
But for the undecided, some smaller parties and independents have been the main beneficiaries in recent opinion polls. So, as is often said, it is all to play for.
During my first decade in Leinster House, I experienced a few snap elections.
For instance, my second election, in 1989, was precipitated by Charlie Haughey after his government was defeated on a private members’ motion over providing funds for haemophiliacs.
The following election, in 1992, also occurred suddenly after the collapse of the Fianna Fáil/ Progressive Democrats coalition because of allegations over the Beef tribunal.
Then, in 1997, the outgoing coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left, under the late John Bruton, decided to go to the polls before the end of its term.
This proved to be a miscalculation by Bruton and then Labour Party leader Dick Spring.
It ultimately led to the election of Fianna Fáil, and Bertie Ahern as taoiseach for the next 15 years.
I was a member of all of those administrations. From the start, we collectively decided that we would see out our full term.
Despite many hiccups, we confounded many commentators by continuing for the full term on two occasions.
History
Irish political history has shown the people do not take kindly to politicians trying to take advantage by going to the polls before the due time.
That consideration will weigh heavily on the mind of Micheál Martin, because he was around for most of that period too.
I can’t figure out what Leo Varadkar might think, but he may be wary of putting too much store in opinion polls, given Fine Gael’s somewhat unfortunate habit of being spooked by bad polling.
For instance, after a disastrous poll in 2001, the Fine Ga el parliamentary party immediately dumped then leader John Bruton in favour of Michael Noonan.
I think that’s something they probably regretted for a long time afterwards.
Having also served with Eamon Ryan, I’d say he would err on the side of caution, by aiming to see out the full term.
So a big calculation will have to be made by Mr Varadkar and his colleagues. Local elections and referendums will take place in the next few months, and local elections are notoriously bad news for incumbent Governments.
The danger for the Coalition is that any fair wind it has at the present time might disappear like a puff of smoke after those local elections.
A bad result for the Government parties could cause significant rumblings in their ranks, and also rejuvenate Sinn Féin’s standing.
Indeed, the impending referendums next month could also be a political banana skin for the Government parties, especially given the clear lack of voter knowledge of the issues involved.
So do they call a general election before these contests, or at the same time ?( LeoVaradkar quickly poured cold water on holding them all at once.) Or do they take their chances and wait it out to the end? You can be sure that, over the next few months, a huge amount of Government time will be taken up with discussions about when is the best time to jump.