READY for the NEXT STEP
ASK yourself a question: if the Scarlets, Ospreys, Dragons or Cardiff were pitching up to face an understrength Leinster at the RDS this weekend, would you fancy a flutter on any of those teams?
Absolutely not. The Welsh regions have been cannon-fodder in the capital for a long, long time.
As Warren Gatland noted earlier this week, their club game is lightyears behind what the IRFU has built in this country. They can only look on with envy at what the Irish provinces have achieved, with the trophy cabinets brimming with league and European silverware.
Just take a look at the URC table at the moment. Leinster, as usual, are the pacesetters. The nearest Welsh rival? The Ospreys in seventh. Cardiff are 12th, while Scarlets and the Dragons are in a basement battle. When the Champions Cup knockout stages roll around, there will no sign of a Welsh side in the last-16. It’s been that way for many a year.
Thing is, it never seemed to hamper the national team.
Gatland, who is in the difficult second album phase after his initial, distinguished 12-year stint as Wales boss, spoke at length about the challenges facing the regions this week. Structures and supports which are just a given in the Irish system are a rarity for the cash-strapped Welsh clubs. Basic things like proper training facilities, top-class support staff in medical and S&C and coaches.
Despite all those challenges, Gatland’s teams have always been more than the sum of their parts. Three Grand Slams and two World Cup semi-final appearances were the standout achievements during Gatland’s first spell in the job.
The New Zealander also leaned heavily on Welsh players with the Lions, most notably the 2013 series victory in Australia.
There has always been something galvanising about the Welsh setup. Gatland was able to foster a siege mentality among a group of players who were starved of success and recognition at club level. And it worked for years.
The problem for Gatland is there are too many cracks to paper over now. His second coming as Wales head coach has been punctuated by drastic budget cuts, threats of strike action, a player exodus overseas, a host of veterans retiring and a lengthy injury list.
Unsurprisingly, results have been poor. The visitors arrive in Dublin winless and widely written off. Some bookies are offering odds of 21/1 for a shock Welsh result.
And with good reason, too. Andy Farrell’s Ireland are riding a crest of a wave. They are in top form and laced with players at the peak of their powers. Their attack, defence and set-piece are all humming.
Few people are giving Gatland’s young squad a hope at the Aviva.
History is not on their side either. A Welsh team hasn’t tasted success on Irish soil since 2012.
The last two meetings between these sides have been blowouts. The aggregate score of the last two Six Nations meetings was 63-17 in Ireland’s favour.
Despite all that, there is a still a feeling that this encounter will be closer than many predict.
Because you simply can’t dismiss the Gatland Factor. Supporters of a younger generation don’t remember what happened to the Kiwi on this island many years ago.
Long story short, Gatland got shafted by the IRFU in 2001. The former All Blacks hooker took on the national team at a time when Irish rugby was at the lowest of ebbs and turned things around.
Just when it looked like things were taking off, he was handed his P45. If anything, it was the making of Gatland. He become a better coach through his time with Wasps and Wales as well as his stellar career with the Lions. But the shoddy treatment from the IRFU left scars and it has fuelled Gatland’s desire to get one over his former employers, time and again.
He has always relished this fixture. He particularly seemed to enjoy getting under Joe Schmidt’s skin during his fellow Kiwi’s time in the Ireland gig. And he has landed some big scalps down the years. Wellington in 2011 remains one of his best victories against the Irish. Eerily, this game feels a bit like the build-up to that ambush at Westpac Stadium.
The circumstances are quite similar. Declan Kidney’s Ireland were in imposing form having cut a swathe through the World Cup pool stages. Waiting for them in the quarter-finals was a young Welsh side who were something of an unknown quantity. We all knew about Warburton, Lydiate, Faletau, Davies and North after the final whistle, however.
The likes of Dafydd Jenkins — the 21-year-old skipper — Alex Mann, Rio Dyer, Cameron Winnett, Mackenzie Martin and Mason Grady are all greenhorns at this level, but have been tipped for big things.
You just know that Gatland has a plan as well. He is even writing a column in a British newspaper during this tournament.
He threw down the gauntlet yesterday by writing that Wales are going to target Ciaran Frawley, making his first Test start in the unfamiliar role of full-back, and James Lowe in the air.
He has poured over the tape of Ireland’s ill-fated quarter-final defeat by the All Blacks and taken notes. He has promised to target ‘key individuals’ and has implored his inexperienced, young troops to attack the game from the off and knock this Irish juggernaut off their stride.
It’s a big ask, against one of the world’s form teams on their home ground. Then, you look at Ireland’s power-packed bench against a callow cast of replacements on the Welsh side.
The hosts look the more potent operation across the board and a Welsh result would be a monumental shock to a group who have unprecedented back-to-back Grand Slams in their sights. If this Irish team are really as good as everyone thinks they are, they should make light work of today’s opponents.
They should do, and with plenty to spare. But if this Welsh team brimming with unknown quantities begin well and get a foothold, it could be interesting. It always is when Gats is involved.
‘If we can play without fear, anything is possible,’ he declared earlier this week. Underdogs in Dublin, Gatland wouldn’t have it any other way.
Ireland should
win but ‘Gatty’ will have a plan