Climate change could make our winter 15C colder

CLIMATE change could see Ireland’s weather become more like Scandinavia, with temperatures plummeting by 15C in winter, research has found.

Parts of the country could also be under 70cm of water if the Gulf Stream collapses, according to scientists from Utrecht University in the Netherlands.

They have analysed for the first time what processes would be involved in a collapse of the.

This is a complex system of surface-level and deep currents in the Atlantic Ocean, in which the Gulf Stream plays a role, carrying heat from the tropics across to Europe.

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been described as one of the ‘tipping elements’ in the climate system, like melting sea ice, which would bring about an irreversible change.

The collapse could be caused by an influx of fresh water, coming from either rain, melted ice or river run-off.

The scientists noted previous research suggesting there could be an AMOC tipping point before the end of the century, and saw the need to identify a reliable early warning indicator.

Dr René van Westen, co-author of the research, told Newstalk Breakfast: ‘Ireland’s climate is massively influenced by the so-called warm Gulf Stream.

‘It brings quite a lot of heat from the Gulf of Mexico and also from other parts near the Equator all the way to western Europe. Our climate therefore is about 5C to 10C warmer than when you’re comparing with the Canadian climate, for example, which is much colder.’

He said that if the circulation of currents in the Atlantic Ocean, including the Gulf Stream, came to a full stop, this would result ‘in a massive cooling of the western European climate’.

Dr van Westen said Ireland would also see less rain in such a scenario.

‘With our study we’ve actually modelled such a collapse, so it’s not only just theoretical – we actually showed that it is possible,’ he said. ‘We also investigated the climate impacts so you see, for example, for winter temperatures a 15C drop.

‘During summer months it’s only about 5C, but we’re also receiving less precipitation over Ireland.

‘Sea levels will rise to about 70cm along the coastline, so you’ll see a really substantial shift of your present day climate to much more Scandinavian climate like conditions.’

The impact of the AMOC collapse would be felt across the globe, the scientists said, not least in the Amazon, where the dry season could become the wet season and vice versa, severely disrupting the ecosystem.’

However, he said there is ‘still time to act now’.