The inside track on how the title will be won
...and why our experts think it will be Klopp’s crowning glory
WHY THEY CAN WIN INJURY FREE AT LAST
The first half of Arsenal’s Premier League campaign was plagued by injuries.
In defence, the left back position became a revolving door after Jurrien Timber sustained a long-term knee injury. Jakub Kiwior, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Takehiro Tomiyasu have all had a go but the latter two have also had their injury problems and Kiwior is a centre half by trade. On the right, Ben White has had to play while not fully fit.
In midfield, Thomas Partey has not started since August and Jorginho has had to be protected so has only featured occasionally. Up front, Gabriel Jesus has had a recurring knee issue.
However, with the exception of Timber, Arsenal now have a full-strength squad for the first time in months. Some timing.
THEY LOVE A LATE GOAL
After Christmas, a goal drought saw the Gunners take 30 shots against West Ham and still lose 2-0, then lose 2-1 at Fulham. It seemed to have shot down their title aspirations and led to cries for a striker to be signed in the January transfer window.
In the last eight league games, though, the Gunners have picked up maximum points and scored 33 goals (more than four a game). Throw in the habit of scoring late — five of Arsenal’s 20 league wins have come courtesy of goals after the 85th minute — and their attack is now a potent force.
BITE OF THE UNDERDOGS
The pressure of being in front can carry a different psychological weight from when you are in the pack. Arsenal are top of the table again like they were last season heading into the home stretch, but this time they are level on points with Liverpool and only one ahead of Manchester City.
Last season they had a lead of eight points over City at the start of April and the expectation seemed to weigh heavy. This time they do not have such a burden.
WHY THEY MIGHT NOT BACK-UPS DON’T CUT IT
Although Arsenal have had injuries this season, key players in key positions have stayed fit. Declan Rice has started every league match and so has William Saliba, whose central defensive partner Gabriel has started all but four games. Bukayo Saka has missed one match and Martin Odegaard only three.
The fear is that if one of these vital players goes down, as Saliba did last season when Arsenal fell apart, the back-ups don’t cut it. Kiwior is untested at centre half and Fabio Vieira and Emile Smith Rowe have been hit-and-miss as replacements for Odegaard. Reiss Nelson is not Saka and Rice’s all-round game is irreplaceable.
EUROPEAN DISTRACTION
Arsenal have not won a trophy since 2020. If they beat Porto tonight and reach the Champions League quarter-finals, their focus will continue to be split between Europe and the league.
The Gunners have never won the Champions League and if they keep progressing, selection for league games could be compromised. Arsenal still have to go to the Etihad, Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, too.
LACK OF EXPERIENCE
It has been 20 years since Arsenal last won the league. City, on the other hand, know the drill. Liverpool have recent experience of taking the crown, too.
That long wait weighs on the mind and until it has been done, the question remains: when, if it all, will it happen? Such feelings are not new to Arsenal fans, but as the run-in approaches the nerves from the stands could be felt on the pitch as well.
PREDICTION
1. Manchester City
2. Arsenal
3. Liverpool
WHY THEY CAN WIN VAN DIJK IS AT HIS PEAK
Having the best defender in Europe leading your side gives you a big advantage in any title race. In the last month alone, Virgil van Dijk has scored an extra-time winner in the Carabao Cup final and kept the best No9 in the world, Erling Haaland, in his pocket.
The Dutchman made an error in Liverpool’s defeat at Arsenal last month, which could prove costly, but has barely put a foot wrong otherwise. Many say he is back to his pre-injury form but that is wrong — he is playing the best football of his career.
FORTRESS ANFIELD
Tomorrow marks 500 days since Liverpool lost a domestic match at Anfield — well done Jesse Marsch’s Leeds. Pep Guardiola described it best on Sunday when he said going to Anfield is like being caught in a tsunami.
Guardiola talked about how Liverpool flood defences with wave after wave of attacks, getting numerical advantages all over the pitch with clever runs and lightning counter-pressing.
Many teams have come to Anfield with confidence this season but left with nothing. Fulham led 3-2 as late as the 87th minute but still lost.
THE CULT OF KLOPP
Liverpool look revitalised and ready to fight since Jurgen Klopp announced he will leave at the end of the season. Many at the club have called it ‘The Last Dance’ and it feels like Liverpool are dancing to the title.
Klopp seems to have surprised even himself with some of his tactics. The double-pivot of Wataru Endo and Alexis Mac Allister prevented City from playing in dangerous areas on Sunday, and he said he will never
forget his team’s passing in that game. He seems to have instilled a belief and hunger which has grown tenfold since he announced his departure. Last-minute winners, digging deep through injury crises and a unique team spirit could all be crucial in the run-in.
WHY THEY MIGHT NOT INJURY TIGHTROPE
Liverpool have been plagued by injury and there is a feeling they are one or two knocks to key players away from their title hopes being obliterated.
In a race where one or two points could separate the winners from the losers, one key absentee could haunt them. Let’s imagine it’s late in a game and Liverpool are through on goal. Klopp would rather Mohamed Salah were in the team than not.
BITTER RIVALS IN THE WAY
Liverpool’s two defining games of this run-in are likely to be their trips to rivals Manchester United and Everton. The latter is likely to be the penultimate Merseyside derby at a raucous Goodison Park — and the Toffees will be in the midst of a relegation fight.
United can roll over for big teams but Erik ten Hag’s men can still pick up points against their rivals. There is also a trip to Aston Villa to come.
STOCKLEY PARK HOWLERS
Imagine the fury if Liverpool lost the title by a single point. The Reds would point the finger at their 2-1 defeat at Tottenham in September when Luis Diaz had a goal wrongly chalked off for offside, which PGMOL later admitted was a monumental VAR mess-up.
There have been other controversial moments that have aggrieved Liverpool, not least Jeremy Doku’s high boot in the box which went unpunished on Sunday.
PREDICTION
1. Liverpool 2. Manchester City 3. Arsenal
WHY THEY CAN WIN MUSCLE MEMORY
They have been here before. And in every single one of the tight battles under Pep Guardiola, they have prevailed.
When the silverware begins to glisten, City generally turn it on. It’s only a year since they won 12 games on the bounce to snatch the title away from Arsenal. Reminders of that and their tussles with Liverpool will be the dressing-room message.
THEY HAVEN’T PEAKED YET
It sounds strange given City have not lost since the first week of December — a bad night at Aston Villa — but there is a feeling they have still got another couple of gears in them.
Erling Haaland has 18 Premier League goals but City are waiting for him to fully explode. There are some fixtures coming up where the bigger players, such as Kevin De Bruyne, will fancy having a say on this title race.
INJURIES DON’T HURT THEM
There have been loads this season without anybody noticing. Ederson is now looking at four weeks out but in his place, Stefan Ortega has always stepped up in a way that calms any fears — just as he did at Anfield on Sunday.
Even though others have filled the void, Jack Grealish’s return — likely after the international break, will be a welcome boost — City are more coherent with him in the side.
WHY THEY MIGHT NOT POOR FORM IN BIG GAMES
City’s form against the rest of the top six does not make great reading for Guardiola. They have only beaten one top-six rival in the league and that is Manchester United, home and away.
Defeats at Arsenal and Villa have been harmful, and both teams visit the Etihad in the week after the international break. Then there is the annual struggle at Tottenham to come — though City did finally score and win there in the FA Cup fourth round in January.
DEFENSIVE VULNERABILITY
City have felt more fallible at the back this term. Part of that is down to the extended absence of John Stones, with square pegs filling his hybrid role, but individual mistakes — see Nathan Ake and Ederson’s mess-up for Liverpool’s penalty on Sunday — have hindered them.
Amazingly, they have conceded more goals and scored fewer than either Liverpool or Arsenal. That needs correcting given this race will likely go to the final day.
MENTAL FATIGUE
Whether City can muster the energy to drive on at this stage of a campaign yet again will ultimately prove to be the difference between winning and losing.
There has been surprise that they have reacted so strongly to the Treble — dropping off, but not to the extent some had predicted — and they have to fight through the mental fatigue of it all against two unbelievable competitors.
PREDICTION
1. Liverpool
2. Manchester City
3. Arsenal