Bank on Elliott’s team to keep the Irish flag flying
IT’S St Patrick’s Thursday today at Cheltenham and I’m going out on a limb by predicting that Willie Mullins will win no more than one race.
Even if the brakes are briefly applied to the all-conquering Closutton machine, it won’t stop the green tide continuing to wash over the Festival, with Gordon Elliott’s runners set to step forward in a big way.
With the horses of top trainer Nicky Henderson under a cloud, which is harsh luck for him, it paves the way for further Irish dominance.
Almost all the best National Hunt horses are housed in the yards of the best trainers in Ireland, which we are seeing this week.
I expect 20 Irish winners out of the 27 races now that the Cross County has been scrapped — a little prematurely in my view, as they could have waited until Friday.
“I expect 20 Irish winners out of the 27 races now”
The shift from the hunted to the hunters is complete and it won’t change back overnight. We were on the back foot long enough so I’ve no problem celebrating the good times.
Today’s card is probably the least glamorous of the Festival. I don’t hold the Stayers’ Hurdle (3.30) in the same regard as the other major races such as the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup.
It’s essentially for hurdlers who run that bit slower but, in saying that, it has long held a strong appeal at the meeting.
This year is bit of a veterans’ reunion, with three 12-year-olds, two of whom have won the race before, Sire Du Berlais, and Paisley Park — the latter will be retired if he wins.
Teahupoo, named after a surfing village in Tahiti, should be returning to defend his crown as he was beaten half a length by Sire Du Berlais last year and won’t be ridden so far back this time.
He’s better fresh. After a break of 58 days or more, he’s won. That has happened eight times in his career.
Sire Du Berlais has an astonishing record here but Teahupoo is seven and has to beat him. He has the form, ground won’t be an issue, and he’s the class horse of the race.
I think Gavin Cromwell’s Flooring Porter has a great each-way chance. Keith Donohue rides and I think he’ll opt for different tactics, and hold up the former dual winner who was fourth last year after a bad prep.
The cheek-pieces back on Noble Yeats is an interesting tactic by Emmet Mullins, who won the National Hunt Chase on Monday with Corbetts Cross and can’t be underestimated.
THEY were left off him when he won the Cleeve Hurdle here. I think he’ll be bang there and Harry Cobden is a top class booking. Home By The Lee is another that will love the ground.
The card kicks off with the Turners Novices’ Chase (1.30) which includes Letsbeclearaboutit which I didn’t expect, and Sharjah, who is unlikely to like the ground.
His stablemate Facile Vega is stepping up in trip. Am I going to give him a chance? No. I don’t think he’s any value. He’s always worked the house down for Willie Mullins but since his Bumper win here two years ago, he has been disappointing.
I’m with Grey Dawning for the Skeltons, Dan and Harry, who dodged Fact To File yesterday. I think he’ll love the ground and will beat Ginny’s Destiny, who beat him in December when he made a very bad mistake at the last fence. I’m going to give this one to the home team.
In the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (2.10), I like Gabbys Cross for Henry de Bromhead. He’s a better horse than we’ve seen, and qualified at Punchestown with an eye-catching run.
He’s not as keen as he used to be so they don’t have to drop him out too far, which led to his demise in some of his earlier races.
Of the JP McManus pair, Icare Allen, third in the Galway Hurdle,
and only a six-year-old, has a great chance for Willie.
In the 20th running of the Ryanair Chase (2.50), the race I’m looking forward to most today, Banbridge is unlikely to appreciate ground conditions and could be a non-runner.
I’m very pleased to see Jack Kennedy has picked Gordon Elliott’s Conflated.
All the pre-Festival talk was of Jack going for Fil Dor but Conflated, for me, is the class horse of the race.
Conflated has been keeping the company of Galopin Des Champs and was bang there two out at Leopardstown at Christmas and again in the Dublin Racing Festival.
He made the running going right-handed at Down Royal, which is not his preference, as he jumps to the left.
Envoi Allen is coming back for more. He has a great record here and runs best fresh. He’ll likely be favourite but Conflated can give Michael O’Leary a second success in his own race which he won before with Balko Des Flos.
Crebilly is too short a price for the Novices’ Handicap Chase (4.10) and he’ll hate the ground. I can’t have him.
I think Arctic Bresil could run a big race for de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore at a big price.
Still a maiden over fences. When he won his maiden hurdle in Cork, there was talk he was the nicest horse to come into the yard since Sizing John.
The wheels have fallen off the wagon a bit but he’s well handicapped here and, it’s significant that Rachael has chosen him over Life In The Park and Watch House Cross.
You can’t ignore the unbeaten Brighterdaysahead in the Mares’ Novices Hurdle (4.50). At Gordon’s, they’ve a lot of mares to compare her with, Apple’s Jade for example, and know a good one when they see one.
In the Kim Muir Chase (5.30), Inothewayurthinkin, trained by Gavin Cromwell, appeals.
I keep going back to that Limerick run at Christmas behind Gaelic Warrior and Il Etait Temps, and he was pulling double coming down the hill.
Derek O’Connor, who won the National Hunt Chase on Monday, will ride him to get the trip as he is not guaranteed to get three miles and two furlongs, especially as he’s top weight.
Where It All Began won the National Trial well for Gordon Elliott and is my each-way shout under Barry O’Neill.
“Conflated is the class horse of the Stayers’ Hurdle”