Calculators at the ready

The final round of the Allianz Football League takes place this weekend with all still to play for, Mail Sport crunches the numbers and comes up with the answers...

ONCE Derry avoid defeat to Roscommon they are certain to qualify for the League final for the first time since 2014 — when they lost to Dublin in the spring decider.

The likelihood is that we will see a repeat of that fixture come the last day of March with Derry’s place in the final all but assured.

Even if they lose, given their head-to-head advantage over both, it would need both Dublin and Kerry to win their home games against Tyrone and Galway respectively to ensure that qualification would come down to scoring difference.

And with a 16-point superior scoring difference over Kerry, Mickey Harte’s team are practically cast-iron certainties to reach the final even in the improbable likelihood of being beaten by Roscommon.

And with the head-to-head advantage, Dublin will qualify to meet Derry in the final so long as they match Kerry’s result.

There is the outside possibility that Mayo could take their defence of the League title to the final, but that would involve such an unlikely series of results, including heavy defeats for Dublin and Kerry along with Connacht men beating Monaghan. Buying a winning lottery ticket is a more feasible outcome.

At the other end of the table, Roscommon have to win against Derry at Celtic Park while Galway have to lose against Kerry in Killarney to avoid joining Monaghan in Division 2 next season.

FIXTURES: Derry v Roscommon, Dublin v Tyrone, Kerry v Galway, Monaghan v Mayo

PREDICTION: Derry and Dublin to meet in the final, with Roscommon to be relegated along with Monaghan.

FOR a group that had so much attraction, it all looks set for a rather underwhelming conclusion this Saturday night.

The promotion race, as was anticipated, proved to be something of a procession with Armagh and Donegal simply streets ahead of the rest but it was the expectation that the bottom of the table would offer some final round drama that has proved to be someway off the mark.

With potential relegation to the

Tailteann Cup the headline consequence of demotion, a relegation race that at one stage had five teams in the running has now become relatively straight forward.

If Louth match Fermanagh’s result then the Erne County will be relegated to Division 3, a possibility that becomes all the more likely given that they take on Cavan and Kildare respectively, the latter two have nothing to play for in the final round.

Even so, the final table will provide no definitive answer as to the make-up of the Sam Maguire with Kildare, despite finishing bottom, having a negotiable pathway to the Lerinster final.

FIXTURES: Cavan v Fermanagh; Cork v Armagh, Donegal v Meath, Kildare v Louth, PREDICTION: Fermanagh to join Kildare in Division 3 next season.

BOTH promotion and relegation issues are in play coming ahead of next Sunday’s final round,

If Clare can find a way to beat Down in Newry, the Banner — despite being a team in considerable transition — will make an immediate return to Division 2.

That being the case, Westmeath need to avoid defeat to Sligo to join them.

If both Down and Westmeath lose, the Mourne men will almost certainly be promoted given their vastly superior scoring difference over the Lakesideers.

And even if Down protect their unbeaten record to get promoted, Clare could still deny them a place in the Sam Maguire by reaching the Munster final, which is likely given that the Banner County is on the opposite side of the draw to Kerry and Cork.

Just like promotion, relegation is likely to be determined by the outcome of one match, as Wicklow travel to Antim needing to win.

If they do so, the Saffrons will be relegated provided that Offaly don’t lose at home to Limerick.

Antrim’s only other get-out-ofjail card if they lose is if Offaly are held to a draw, in which case their superior scoring difference will keep them up at the expense of Wicklow.

FIXTURES: Antrim v Wicklow, Down v Clare, Offaly v Limerick, Sligo v Westmeath

PREDICTION: Down and Westmeath to secure promotion with Wicklow to join Limerick in the bottom tier next year.

IT may be the game’s bottom tier, but it seldom disappoints or lacks drama.

That may, in part, be down to the reality that the League is season-defining for these counties, with the possibility of Tailteann Cup success beyond their reach.

Four teams are in the mix for promotion going into next Sunday — Laois, Wexford, Longford and Leitrim.

However, the reality is that Laois are already over the line given that they have hit the 10point mark, are armed with a superior scoring difference to the rest and face the game’s lowest ranked team in the final round.

After that, there are any number of permutations as to who will go up with them.

The all-Leinster clash between Wexford and Longford is effectively a promotion play-off, but if that finishes in a draw and Leitrim beat Tipperary, the Connacht side will go up.

And even if Wexford win, once Leitrim match their result they will also go up on having the head-to-head advantage. However, if both Longford and Leitrim win then that advantage rests with Longford.

FIXTURES: Carlow v London, Waterford v Laois, Wexford v Longford, Leitrim v Tipperary

PREDICTION: Laois might not be mathematically over the promotion line but they are in every other sense. Leitrim go into the final round in fourth place but appear to be in pole position if they win their home game against Tipperary and Wexford either win or draw at home to Longford.