After the ILLUSION can Toon recover the MAGIC?
A thin squad, an average training ground, and questions over Bruno’s future. So...
ON Saturday, at Wembley, two of Newcastle’s best players will be in opposition when England face Brazil in a showpiece friendly. Meanwhile, in Dubai this week, Eddie Howe will struggle to organise a fivea-side game involving senior players who are fully fit.
The comparison serves as illustration for the disparity between the club’s head and its tail. The ambition and acceleration of the former is stymied by the weight of the latter. The organisation is stretched. When that happens, cracks appear.
All the while, of course, there is the boot on the neck that is Profit & Sustainability Rules (PSR). It means money is no quick fix. That is why Newcastle, having looked like tearing into the distance 12 months ago, find themselves back at a crossroads heading into a pivotal summer. Much like water on a desert horizon, last season was a mirage.
Pools of prosperity still exist. When Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimaraes meet at Wembley, Newcastle will be one of only four clubs with players in both squads, and one of the others is Real Madrid.
The Saudi-backed ownership has got a lot right — Gordon and Guimaraes cost roughly £40million apiece — and they beat modern football convention by taking the club from 19th to fourth in just 19 months.
The head was all anyone could see, humming its Champions League theme tune and singing about Paris and Milan. There were some new teeth, old ones had been polished and the smile was as wide as the Tyne. Except, on closer inspection, the tail was being dragged along, always likely to slow what was happening in front. Newcastle were a Champions League club in league-position only.
Twenty-four hours before their first home match versus Paris Saint-Germain, a handyman with a hammer and nails was dashing around St James’ Park bashing Uefa signage into walls and doors. It captured a club trying to maintain pace with itself. As chief executive Darren Eales says, ‘It’s like building a plane whilst in the air’.
When they then beat PSG 4-1, in one of the most memorable nights in Newcastle’s history, it was not a surprise. They have an excellent manager in Howe, some wonderful players as well as owners who are driven and want the best for the club. But there was always a feeling of them riding a magic carpet, of it being something of a trick on the eye.
The reality is what has played out since, brought so sharply into focus by a shop-soiled season of misfortune and misadventure. The team are 10th in the table — they are better than that — but with the division’s ninthhighest wage bill, last season was, undeniably, a massive overachievement.
For that, credit is due, and both reserves of money and goodwill were banked in the process. The faith of supporters remains.
At present, however, the tail feels heavier than ever. A stadium not big enough to satisfy demand or maximise corporate revenue. A squad not deep enough to compete in four competitions — six starters during Saturday’s 2-0 defeat at Manchester City played under Steve Bruce. A training ground, whilst improved, still miles behind the very best. An academy whose Under-18s team lost 5-0 at home to Bournemouth in the FA Youth Cup and lost its most promising player, Ollie Harrison, to Chelsea late last year. Mistakes made in the diagnosis and treatment of some injuries, contributing to the worst statistics for player availability in the Premier League. Mistakes made with last summer’s recruitment — four signings at a potential cost of £150m have made just 17 league starts. A commercial income nearly £200m shy of Tottenham, their least wealthy rival among the top six. A sporting director in Dan Ashworth who has jumped ship, pulled by the lure of Manchester United.
Doing away with PSR would lighten the load with some of the above, but not all. That needs better decision-making and better appointments and a strategy that will trim the tail over time. But what about now? Where does it leave the head? Now the magic carpet has come back down to
earth, will the likes of Guimaraes want to hop off? At 26, he could be gone this summer if believing his and Newcastle’s progress has decelerated. A sale of close to £100m could yet satisfy the midfielder and club, whose need for investment elsewhere in the squad — and the PSR scope to do so — is perhaps greater than having a star name who plays for Brazil.
It would be a blow for Howe, supporters and the owners, but reality has smacked them square in the face in recent months. Newcastle are not the super club many presumed them to be.
It will not happen overnight — but there is no guarantee of time and money being the solution, either. Just look at Chelsea and Manchester United.
Last summer, Newcastle lost sight of where they were, signing players on the false assumption of their squad being built on stronger foundations. Betting bans aside, they could not afford to spend £52m on Sandro Tonali who clearly needed time to adapt. They could not afford to commit close to £60m on two young full-backs, Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall, who have barely featured. They could not afford to spend another £38m on Harvey Barnes, a left-winger who plays in Gordon’s position. It is unfortunate that his season has been wrecked by injury, but even if fit he would not have displaced Gordon. They acted like a super club varnishing a Champions League-ready group.
It leaves a club for whom, not so long ago everything felt so certain, suddenly tormented by doubt. Will Howe survive if finishing outside the European places? The word is that he will — but no-one knows what Riyadh is thinking.
Who replaces Ashworth as sporting director? Will Bruno stay? That’s 50-50. Man City and PSG are watching. Will Joelinton sign a new contract? You’d go 4060 in favour of not. Will Kieran Trippier leave this summer? There’s a chance, yes. Will Callum Wilson go? Probably. Will there be a £150m+ transfer budget? Not if they don’t sell. There’s also £28m leaving the door on July 1 for Chelsea loanee Hall, a player Howe does not yet trust in his first-team.
Will the Saudis get impatient? No, we are told. To that end, are there plans to expand St James’ or build a new stadium? Not yet. ‘Feasibility studies’ are ongoing. A new training ground? The same applies here. Part of Ashworth’s frustration, sources claim, is that all decisions were ‘process driven’.
There is, then, work to be done. The problem with qualifying for the Champions League so soon — if you can call it a problem — is that it gave the impression of that work being close to complete. It was an illusion.
Heads and tails. Black and white. In reality, it’s all a bit of a grey area at Newcastle United right now.
Newcastle’s Dutch defender Sven Botman will undergo ACL surgery and will be out for between six and nine months.
Botman suffered the injury in the defeat by Manchester City on Saturday. He missed three months earlier in the season after damaging ligaments in the same knee. It is thought this latest problem is a separate issue.