Ireland could freeze like Alaska ‘within decades’
Warning Gulf Stream close to collapsing
IRELAND could freeze in the coming decades as experts warn the Atlantic current that keeps our weather mild could be closer to collapse than predicted.
Despite being on the same axis as Canada and southern Alaska, we escape their low temperatures because of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation which carries cold water south and pushes warm water up from the Gulf Stream.
But according to a new report, freshwater from rising rainfall, river runoff and melting ice caused by the climate crisis could push AMOC past its tipping point resulting in climate shifts.
And the consequences for Ireland and our farmers could be disastrous.
Utrecht University climate and physics researcher Rene van Westen, who co-authored the 2024 report told Inside Climate: “It’s not science fiction.”
He added: “We need to show this is not only a Hollywood blockbuster – The Day After Tomorrow. This is real, this can happen. And I think it’s important and urgent to keep saying to people, OK, we need to really tackle our emissions.”
The paper, published by Science Advances on February 9, found the AMOC’S strength has decreased since the 1950s and is “currently in its weakest state in over a millennium”.
The Atlantic current is one of the “tipping elements” in the climate system that could shift abruptly or irreversibly, sparking major weather changes around the world.
Targeted simulations have uncovered early warning signs AMOC is approaching a tipping point before the end of this century. If that happens, Irish temperatures could plummet by as much as 10 degrees in winter and five degrees in summer because the Gulf Stream could “partly vanish”.
Should Europe freeze, it is predicted the AMOC shift could also scorch the global south and tropics, increase sea level rise in the North Atlantic by up to a meter. And also spark a reversal of the Amazon’s rain patterns severely disrupting its ecosystem.
Professor Peter Ditlevsen, an expert in the physics of ice, climate and Earth at University of Copenhagen’s Niels Bohr Institute has also researched the issue and says “there’s no way to plan for it”.
His 2023 paper was “warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation” because of growing greenhouse gas concentrations.
It sounded the alarm on a possible mid-century tipping point and he said this research shores up his findings.
Speaking about the new Science Advances paper, Prof Ditlevsen said: “It’s pretty grim.
“We are somewhere between 30 years and 100 years for the collapse... which is a very short period.”
But he admits “we could fear” Irish weather ending up like Alaska’s if the predictions play out.
He added: “What we can plan for now, and farmers do it in Europe... is global warming.
“A lot of discussion is, how should agriculture prepare for this.”