The rise of machines is not that far away
IT IS estimated that by 2030 computers will have become more intelligent than humans. Given the low standard of Dáil debates, you could be forgiven for thinking that this has already happened.
It seems we are living with two versions of reality. The first is the one we read about as emanating from politicians’ statements and the other is the reality the rest of us face while struggling to balance our household budgets.
Whether you hold political power or are in opposition, reality is something to be avoided if at all possible and this especially applies if you are in the back benches and will probably never have to justify your comments. The reality you and I face is rather more serious. We have to stand over our decisions and we pay the price if we make mistakes. Politicians and, indeed, many of our civil servants work in a privileged place that ignores any requirement that they be held accountable for their errors.
So let us be thankful computers will soon make an ever-increasing number of decisions for us and hope they will be sensible and logical ones, devoid of populist emotion.
Computers can already park your car for you and some can even drive themselves. All decisions relating to speed, distance between vehicles and overall safety will be in the hands of computers.
This should deliver a huge drop in the cost of automobile insurance as accidents will be rare events.
Fifty years ago, the vast majority of our population could only dream of owning their own car, but in the future, will we even need one? Probably not if we can dial a car up on our mobile phone and have it pick us up virtually anywhere and drop us at our chosen destination.
Your phone can already translate languages and give you instant access to virtually any information you require by accessing the internet. Most major financial transactions are decided by using computer-driven models. Clothes are designed by computers, as are houses and new roads.
The world as we now know it is disappearing rapidly and intelligent software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next five to 10 years.
If you don’t believe me, just think about the dramatic changes that have occurred in recent decades.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85pc of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, digital photography had taken over, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. No one needed a camera as they could take perfect photographs with their phones and send them instantly to friends all over the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties. Likewise, the online taxi service Uber is just a software tool that connects you to affordable transport virtually anywhere. They don’t own any cars, but are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
It is time to welcome the fourth Industrial Revolution. Major developments are continually occurring in relation to artificial intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
What it will all mean is still unclear and the future without the need for most people to go to work is a scary prospect. If a tractor or combine can operate perfectly well without a driver, why employ anyone?
Computer models already decide when to