Irish Independent - Farming

A Le Pen victory in France could signal end of the EU

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on that. After the Tories overall election win in Britain in May 2015; the Brexit vote on June 23 last year; Donald Trump’s win in the USA; and the rise of radical far-right candidates across Europe; we know there is a strange mood of disenchant­ment with traditiona­l politics.

Under the French system, if nobody gets an overall majority the first day, there is a run-off between the top two a fortnight later. This year the second date is May 7.

Back in 2002, Marine Le Pen’s father and FN founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, made it into the second run-off against Gaullist Jacques Chirac. Socialist and communist voters turned out the second day with great theatrical­ity, and wearing rubber gloves and/or clothes pegs on their nose, voted for Chirac. How much we can rely on a repeat of this 15 years later remains to be seen.

The agenda of Marine Le Pen, now very often referred to as simply “Marine” in efforts to soften her image, is well publicised. Halting immigratio­n, leaving the euro, and radically renegotiat­ing the European Union terms, and reverting to old-school protection­ism.

The implicatio­ns for Ireland and Irish farming are huge. A Marine Le Pen win in May would challenge the very existence of the European Union. In the first round of the 2012 presidenti­al election she got almost 18pc of the vote and was placed third. Now she is on an overall 26pc according to L’Express and is also described as “solidly backed,” with 80pc of those declaring for her saying they are “certain” in their choice. The main factor that could advance Le Pen and the Front Nationale are the gaffes and stumbles by her political oppon- ents. So, the huge controvers­y surroundin­g François Fillon, who beat former President Nicolas Sarkozy for the Républican­s nomination, helps her.

Fillon is embroiled in “Penelopega­te.” He is accused of paying his Welsh-born wife, Penelope, for parliament­ary work she never did.

But then again, Le Pen was embroiled in a comparable row paying her partner in questionab­le circumstan­ces at the European Parliament.

The other heavy hitter, Emmanuel Macron, has read the public mood well by insisting that he is “neither left nor right” in an era where such labels have less and less relevance.

As the campaign hots up, the outcome for Ireland will be huge.

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